West Mojave Plan FEIR/S - Desert Managers Group

3.4.1.3 Study Area Growth CapacityEconomic growth within a given area is ultimately affected by the underlying capacity tohost additional amounts of land use development where related residential, employment,educational, and leisure activities are to occur. The underlying holding capacity of the area isgreatly influenced by General Plan policy that defines the location, supply, and intensity of landuse available to host economic activity. The ultimate growth capacity of the West Mojave islargely defined by General Plan land use policy of 15 separate jurisdictions (11 cities and 4counties). To determine the land use capacity of West Mojave land use designations werequantified and classified by type and intensity. Because the West Mojave encompasses such avast geographic area special attention was placed on determining the specific intensity ofpermitted land use rather than estimating land use intensity on the basis of commonnomenclature used to describe type of land use. Specific quantities and correspondingpopulation and employment levels used to describe the growth capacity of the West Mojave aredetailed in Exhibit 9 and Exhibit 10 of the Socio-Economic Analysis in Appendix N.Overall, roughly 1.78 million acres of land area throughout the West Mojave isdesignated for residential land use at a target capacity of approximately 1.58 million residentialdwellings. In all about 240,000 acres of land area is designated for a variety of non-residentialland use such as office, retail, industrial, and institutional development. The balance of area, orroughly 7.0 million acres, is designated for open space, utility easements, resource production,agriculture, military installations, conservation land, etc. Overall, the 15 affected local agencyjurisdictions have General Plan policies in place guiding the ultimate use and development ofroughly 9.0 million acres. With respect to population and employment, the designated supply ofresidential and nonresidential land use has the capacity to support roughly 4.86 million residentsand 3.09 million local jobs if all West Mojave properties are developed and utilized according toGeneral Plan policy.In terms of economic realities expected to influence growth opportunities throughout theWest Mojave over the long haul, current General Plan policies in aggregate are out of balance.The West Mojave is effectively over-supplied in terms of the amount of non-residential landrequired for the housing unit capacity currently designated. Conversely, it might be argued thereexists an undersupply of designated housing capacity needed to warrant the amount of nonresidentialland use planned. The market reality is such that single-family detached housing willrepresent the dominant form of residential constructed throughout the West Mojave during the30-year life of the habitat conservation plan (HCP) project.If all West Mojave land uses were developed according to General Plan policy, the areawould effectively host 1.95 local jobs per housing unit (rough equivalent of 2.15 jobs peroccupied household). Since 1990, overall workforce participation throughout the West Mojavehas been declining from about 1.16 workers (including self-employed) per household to 1.11workers per household in 2000, with about one-fifth of these workers commuting to jobs in themetropolitan regions of San Bernardino and Los Angeles County. The corresponding rate ofworkforce participation for the State has been increasing from 1.63 workers per household in1990 to 1.71 workers per household in 2000. To fully develop the designated supply of nonresidentialland area in the West Mojave, workforce participation trends in the area would needChapter 3 3-204