11.07.2015 Views

Evaluation of the Key Stage 2 Language Learning Pathfinders

Evaluation of the Key Stage 2 Language Learning Pathfinders

Evaluation of the Key Stage 2 Language Learning Pathfinders

SHOW MORE
SHOW LESS

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.

3.6.6. Sensitivity analysisAs mentioned above, <strong>the</strong> cost effectiveness analyses undertaken were based on a number<strong>of</strong> assumptions, which could strongly affect <strong>the</strong> findings <strong>of</strong> this section. To test <strong>the</strong> impact <strong>of</strong><strong>the</strong>se assumptions, a sensitivity analysis was carried out on <strong>the</strong> two key variables in <strong>the</strong>analysis, time spent on <strong>the</strong> project by key staff and salaries <strong>of</strong> key staff. This allowed us toestimate <strong>the</strong> extent to which changes in <strong>the</strong>se assumptions were likely to affect <strong>the</strong> finalresult <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> analyses.3.6.6.1. TimeThe time variable was especially crucial with regards to <strong>the</strong> amount <strong>of</strong> time spent by localauthority advisors and teachers. Both were analysed.For local authority advisors, <strong>the</strong> first analysis looked at a downwards revision (to 37 hours aweek) <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> time estimates <strong>of</strong> those advisors that had put in very high estimates <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir owntime. This did not have a significant impact on overall staff costs, which reduced by less thanhalf a percentage point. The impact on costings for individual local authorities was greater,but still remained below 2% in all cases. Following this, a similar analysis was done revisingupwards (to 10 hours a week) <strong>the</strong> time commitment <strong>of</strong> local authority advisors who hadestimated <strong>the</strong>ir time at less than 10 hours a week. This had a similar impact on overall andlocal authority specific costs as <strong>the</strong> downwards revision <strong>of</strong> high outliers. A fur<strong>the</strong>r set <strong>of</strong>analyses attempted to look at <strong>the</strong> sensitivity <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> analyses to this variable by looking at <strong>the</strong>impact <strong>of</strong> increasing/decreasing advisor time by two hours across <strong>the</strong> board. This led to animpact <strong>of</strong> .6 <strong>of</strong> a percent. Overall, <strong>the</strong>n, it can be concluded that <strong>the</strong> analyses were not overlysensitive to changes in reported advisor time. As advisor time is <strong>the</strong> bulk <strong>of</strong> total localauthority level time, <strong>the</strong> impact <strong>of</strong> changes on estimated time commitments <strong>of</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r localauthority staff will be smaller.The main staff cost was teacher time. A number <strong>of</strong> sensitivity analyses were conducted onthis variable. A first analysis consisted <strong>of</strong> a downwards revision <strong>of</strong> all high estimates to 3hours a week. This included ASTs and specialist teachers, who in some cases wereestimated to do up to 37 hours a week on Pathfinder work. This led to a total impact <strong>of</strong> 8.7%on staff costs, and up to 18% impact in some local authorities. An across <strong>the</strong> board revision,whereby teacher time was increased by two hours for all teachers, resulted in a highlysignificant 19% increase in overall staff costs. An even greater impact was obtained whereall low estimates were revised upwards to 2 hours a week. The total impact <strong>of</strong> this was 27%123

Hooray! Your file is uploaded and ready to be published.

Saved successfully!

Ooh no, something went wrong!