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FEDERATION OF EURO-ASIAN STOCK EXCHANGES SEMI ANNUAL REPORT OCTOBER 2005 BELGRADE STOCK EXCHANGE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS Politic and Economic Environment: Serbia and Montenegro, the two republics still left from the old Yugoslav federation, had agreed in March 2002 to scrap remnants of the ex-communist state and to create a new, looser union of Serbia and Montenegro. The EU-brokered deal was intended to prevent further changes to Balkan borders by settling Montenegrin demands for independence. 1 The ruling minority coalition in Serbia, which is lead by the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) and also includes the G17 Plus and the Serbian Renewal Movement-New Serbia (SPO-NS) alliance, remains under pressure. The reformist oriented Democratic Party (DS) and the extreme Serbian Radical Party (SRS), both of which are in opposition, significantly influence the opinion polls. The Serbian authorities have tightened fiscal policy since mid-2004 in order to contain inflationary pressures, and were expected to run a smaller central government deficit than the US$ 534 million envisaged in the revised 2004 budget. The 2005 budget approved by parliament on November 20th envisages a further reduction in the annual budget deficit equivalent to 1.4% of projected GDP. According to the Ministry of Finance recent PAGE 60 data, the budget surplus in the first five months of 2005 reached 2.5% of GDP. The National bank of Serbia has also tightened monetary conditions in recent months, although estimates for this year’s inflation range from 14.5% to 17.0%. In July 2005, a record increase of foreign currency savings was realized, resulting in total amount of foreign currency savings of 1.8 billion euros. Economic Performance: The IMF decision on December 15th, 2004, to release another set of financing has provided further evidence that the outside world regards economic policy in Serbia and Montenegro as broadly on track, following the debt-rescheduling agreement earlier in 2004 between Serbia and the London Club of commercial creditors. This was followed by an improvement in the long-term debt credit rating of Serbia in July 2005 of BB-, which is one degree above the B+ rating by S&P from nine months ago. Short-term debt rating remained B, with perspectives estimated as stable. The improved long-term rating of Serbia is sign of better short-term fiscal outlook, lower political risk and improved indicators of external borrowing. Key Information Contacts National Bank of Serbia: www.nbs.yu/english/index.htm Securities and Exchange Commission: www.sec.sr.gov.yu Central Securities Depository and Clearing House: www.crhov.co.yu/indexe.htm Ministry of Economy: www.mpriv.sr.gov.yu ECONOMIC RATIOS Domestic savings Serbia and Montenegro Lower-middle-income group Trade Indebtedness Investment GROWTH OF INVESTMENT AND GDP (%) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 97 GDI GDP Industrial production in Serbia and Montenegro rose by 7.2% year on year in the first nine months of 2004, on the back of a strong recovery in manufacturing. It was followed by a slowdown in the first half of 2005 and recovery in June, when the index of industrial production again took a positive direction reaching 99.0 (2004=100). GDP growth in Serbia and Montenegro was at 6.5% in 2004. Official estimates for 2005 and 2006 are 5.2% and 5.0% respectively. It is estimated that Serbia and Montenegro’s current-account deficit forecast will fall significantly as a percentage of GDP in 2005-2006 as the trade gap decreases. 2 1 http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/yi.html#Econ 2 Facts and Figures from Serbia and Montenegro Outlook, EIU ViewsWire. New York: Jan 28, 2005. 98 99 00 01 02 03 * World Bank reports
FEDERATION OF EURO-ASIAN STOCK EXCHANGES SEMI ANNUAL REPORT OCTOBER 2005 BELGRADE STOCK EXCHANGE SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO MONEY SUPPLY, INTEREST RATES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES GROWTH OF EXPORTS AND IMPORTS (%) 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 EXPORT AND IMPORT LEVELS (US$ Millions) 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 97 Exports Imports Exports 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 Imports 98 99 00 01 02 03 INFLATION (%) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE TO GDP (%) 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Money Supply (M1) (dinars-millions) 27,026 58,233 93,815 99,544 111,179 Money Supply (M2) (dinars-millions) 32,897 68,098 110,900 124,886 146,613 Foreign Currency Reserves of National Bank of Serbia (NBS) (US$ millions) 524 1,169 2,280 3,550 4,244 Average Money Market Interest Rates 117.43 55.31 32.21 27.14 n/a Average Interest rate on NBS Securities N/A 20.75 10.30 11.35 16.30 Discount Rate of NBS 26.34 16.43 9.50 9.00 8.50 Value of US$ against Dinar 63.16 67.67 58.98 54.64 57.94 Real GDP Growth (%) 5.0 5.5 4.00 3.0 6.0 Investment (% of GDP) 14.2 13.6 16.20 15.9 16.5 Gross Domestic Savings (%of GDP) -2.7 -7.2 -7.20 -6.6 -8.6 Exports of Goods and Services (US$ millions) 29.6 23.7 20.90 19.9 24.2 Imports of Goods and Services (US$ millions) 46.5 44.6 44.30 42.4 49.4 Current Account Balance (US$ millions) -339 -521 -1,383 -1,960 -2,492 GNI per Capita (US$, Atlas method) 1,220 1,250 1,400 1,900 2,530 Real Annual Growth Rates (%, calculated from 1998 prices) Gross domestic product at market prices 5.0 5.5 4.00 3.0 6.0 Gross domestic income 5.1 5.5 4.00 3.1 6.0 Balance of Payments Exports 2,547 2,743 3,241 4,069 5,623 Imports 4,004 5,160 6,857 8,675 11,463 Resource balance -1,457 -2,417 -3,616 -4,606 -5,840 Net current transfers 1,119 1,915 2,344 2,895 3,745 Current account balance -339 -528 -1,383 -1,960 -2,492 GDP deflator CPI 97 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 98 99 00 01 02 03 * Economic Overview, Country Watch Incorporated, 2005 * World Bank reports PAGE 61
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