A.R. Rahman's Journey to the Oscars - International Indian

94PUNDIT’S VIEW• Interest rates will be loweredand liquidity will be improved butbusinesses will not have adequateliquidity for most part of the year.Banks will return to consumerfinancing but will not go berserkas they did in till 2007. Therewill be closures and acquisitionsespecially in the SME categorybefore mid 2009.Interest rates will be lowered and Liquiditywill be improved but businesses will not haveadequate liquidity for most part of the year.Infrastructure projects willbe effectively activated ...willhelp cement, steel, and severalother businesses.Taxes may be reduced ( even atthe cost of deficit financing) to putmoney in the hands of consumers.• Real estate buying is beingpostponed, prices have droppedand big builders are illiquid....interest rate reduction will soothethe • mood but the real trigger willbe only six months after the capitalmarket revives. Not in 2009.• Reduced working days inmany industries (especiallyautomotive and exports related),because of poor off-take...thingswill get worse for the exportdependent industries in 2009 andon those who rely upon them.• Terrorist attacks haveincreased and there is no effectivesolution to curb them as yet...they could continue in 2009.Hospitality and travel industry,already affected by the softeconomy will suffer also becauseinward tourism will be affected.• Political brinkmanship inThe International IndianPakistan can keep tensions high though the year till either the military orthe civilians take(s) effective control...war if it happens, will be ruinousfor India and Pakistan.• Period of lull at the wrong time. There will be a period of 3 monthsor so from March onwards when no major economic decisions maybe taken by the Government because of the pre-election cool offrequirements. This is the period to be most carefully watched.• Fractured mandate at the polls in 2009 will continue to make itdifficult to take quick and bold decisions....expect to fend for yourselffor while from March.• Russia (and countries in itszone of influence) will becomean alternative market for Indianexporters and India will try tocosy up to them. OVL’s expensiveinvestment in Russia is just the start.Harried Indian exporters of goodsfrom garments to tea, will try diversify their customer base to enter thosemarkets. They have already started probing Japan and Asian countries.What does all this add up to?The second half of 2009 will be the start of an economic revivalin the Indian economy. However, 2009 will not be good for all. Theinternational environment will remain depressed and volatile. Thewinners will be those who change the way they work to adjust to thenew reality. There are too many tactical things to list when it comes tothe perspective of individual businesses but at a general level, there are6 issues worth considering. Companies will need to:••••••Be very flexible to deal with volatilityBe quite liquidBe very innovativeHave very quick response time to deal with changesHave their ears close to the ground to pick up and interpret early signalsGet closer to their key customers and be part of the customer’s solutionVery few companies can honestly claim that they are where theyshould be on any of these 6 issues. Serious transformation work will berequired to attain them.Make sure that you are not easy prey for another hunter. It need notbe ‘Que sera, sera’ (what will be, will be).For feedback or questions please contact Raj Nair at raj.nair@consultavalon.comRaj Nair is the founder of Avalon Consulting in India(www.consultavalon.com)In 2000 he co-founded Ugam Solutions one ofthe largest market research companies in the world(www.ugamsolutions.com)th16T CentralTIIs ‘where-to-get-it’ section. Products andservices for our 150,000 discerning readers.TIIEmigrationEmigrationEmigrationEmigrationANNI V ERSARYA16CentralYTII CentralOnly AED 1,000 for thisspace. Minimum 6 ads.Ideal for: Travel, RealEstate, Restaurants etc.CONTACT:MUMBAI :deanne_dsouza@yahoo.comDUBAI :melany26@gmail.comBAHRAIN :premal@veritasinvestments.meEmigrationThe International Indian 95