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Parallel Sessions 4: Systems and Tools for Analysing Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability47Parallel Sessions 4SYSTEMS and TOOLS for ANALYSINGCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS and VULNERABILITYParallel Session 4AEliciting Factors Affecting Fish Kill Events in Taal Lakethrough Participatory Approaches:A Tool for the Development of a Predictive Fish Kill ModelDamasa B. Magcale-Macandog, PhDProfessor of Biological Sciences, University of the Philippines Los BañosTaal Lake is an economically important resource that provides about 40% of the fish requirements ofMetro Manila, Philippines and most towns surrounding the lake (CALABARZON region). Aside from themore common tilapia (Tilapia nilotica) and milkfish grown in fish cages, Taal Lake is home to severalendemic fish species.Fish kill has been observed as an annual occurrence in the lake. Occasionally, however, fish killhappens on a massive scale due to a confluence of factors. For instance, Taal Lake became a virtualgraveyard of about 2,000 MT of fish in 2011 – with close to PhP 60 M worth of combined losses in fourof the hardest hit towns. This prompted the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) to providea research grant for the development of an early warning system to reduce such losses.Dr. Macandog’s team documented local ecological knowledge of fishing communities and keyinformants on the fish kill phenomenon using participatory rural appraisal or PRA tools, namely,community timeline, lake and land use mapping, causal and solutions mapping, plus strengthsweaknesses-opportunities-threats(SWOT) analysis. Along with other relevant information, e.g., lakewater quality from the regional monitoring station of the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources(BFAR) and weather data from the national weather station PAGASA, the research team aims todevelop a predictive fish kill model as a basis for the early warning system.Factors contributory to fish kill include both climate- and nonclimate- related factors, as follows:• Lake pollution was identified by the community as a major cause of fish kill in the lake.Such pollution comes from improper aquaculture practices, domestic and solid waste, andagricultural and commercial waste, among others.• Other causes that the locals enumerated include change in wind direction, greenish water,long duration of calm or stagnant-like water condition, and seasonal changes.ooSoutheasterly wind or hanging Salatan from April to May is characterized by very calmwaters and high water temperature, which influences lake overturn and is known to havecontributed to the May-June 2011 fish kill in Taal Lake.Southwesterly wind or hanging Habagat from May to Sept brings the most unstableequatorial air (hence, the highest temperature fluctuations), causing cloudy and rainymonths and typhoon events. Such weather disturbances deprive fish cages of aeration.Most of the severe fish kills occur during this period.International Conference on Climate Change Impactsand <strong>Adaptation</strong> for Food and Environmental SecurityConference Summary Report
48Parallel Sessions 4: Systems and Tools for Analysing Climate Change Impacts and VulnerabilityoExcessive nutrients in the lake, usually due to nutrient runoffs from animal waste,fertilisers, and sewage (pollution) from the land cause a dense growth of plant life,manifested as greenish water (berdeng tubig). The decomposing plants deplete theoxygen supply, leading to fish kills.Causal diagram of Taal Lake fish killQ: How will the obtained data be used?A: The project is still looking at the range of possible predictors for fish kill. If those factors are properlyidentified, they will be used as parameters of the model we are developing.Q: How does the predictive fish kill model work?A: The data (parameters, predictors, etc.) from different sources are integrated into a single frameworkthat “computes” for the probability of a fish kill event so we can give an early warning as needed.Q: What can the community do if you already have an early warning system?A: A centralized computer system at the provincial office will be networked to the fishing communitiesso that people will be informed of the lake condition in real time. In case of a predicted fish killoccurrence, they could take necessary precautions to lessen their losses. For instance, they maymove their fish cages to portions of the lake that will not be affected, or otherwise harvest their fishearlier than scheduled.Additional comment: The simulations will have a seven-day leeway before the predicted fish kill event forclimate-related causes. Lead time for hydrothermal events or sulfur upwelling (from the active volcano inthe middle of Taal Lake) is an extremely short two hours.International Conference on Climate Change Impactsand <strong>Adaptation</strong> for Food and Environmental SecurityConference Summary Report
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aINTERNATIONAL CONFERENCEON CLIMATE
Page 3 and 4: iInternational Conference onCLIMATE
Page 5 and 6: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYiiiEXECUTIVE SUMMA
Page 7 and 8: vvCONFERENCE BACKGROUNDSpecifically
Page 9 and 10: 2OPENING PROGRAMKeynote SpeechSlide
Page 11 and 12: 4Plenary 1: Status, Prospects, and
Page 13 and 14: 6Plenary 1: Status, Prospects, and
Page 15 and 16: 8Parallel Sessions 1: Climage Chang
Page 17 and 18: 10Parallel Sessions 1: Climage Chan
Page 39 and 40: 32Parallel Sessions 3: Institutiona
Page 53: 46Parallel Sessions 3: Institutiona
Page 57 and 58: 50Parallel Sessions 4: Systems and
Page 63 and 64: 56Plenary 2: Regional and South-Sou
Page 65 and 66: 58Plenary 2: Regional and South-Sou
Page 67 and 68: 60Plenary 3: Panel Discussion on Ne
Page 69 and 70: 62Plenary 3: Panel Discussion on Ne
Page 71 and 72: 64CLOSING PROGRAMCLOSING PROGRAMKno
Page 73 and 74: 66CLOSING PROGRAMDr. Sawhney consid
Page 75: 68CONFERENCE EVALUATIONIn terms of
Page 78 and 79: CONFERENCE EVALUATION71Administrati
Page 80 and 81: ANNEX 173Parallel Sessions 1 - Clim
Page 82 and 83: ANNEX 175DAY 2 - NOVEMBER 22Paralle
Page 84 and 85: ANNEX 177PLENARY 2 - Regional and S
Page 86 and 87: 79Ines Vivian D. DomingoReport Writ
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