Parallel Sessions 4: Systems and Tools for Analysing Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability51The study inferred that climate change-induced impacts would have an overall negative effect on keyPhilippine agricultural sectors, and thus on the overall economy. According to Dr. Vista, this wouldnecessitate the adoption of mitigating measures by farmers and the local government units or LGUs inseveral areas:• Boosting the fishery sector may lessen the impact of climate change on the Philippineeconomy, e.g., increasing the capacity of commercial fishing and aquaculture operators. (ThePhilippine fishery sector is less vulnerable to the impacts of climate change compared toother 137 economies of the world. - Allison et al., 2009)• Adoption of organic farming practices – need for some transitional subsidies from thegovernment to support the promotion of indigenous practices that will result in diversifiedfarming.• Thinking globally and buying local produce may be advantageous for the domestic economyin the short run.• There is a need for targeted safety nets for the affected stakeholders given decline inemployment and failure in food crop production.Q: What would account for the relatively flat employment trend for the agricultural sector compared tothe total employment figures?A: The study did not really go into that… perhaps it could be due to increased mechanization or shift tocorporate farming.Comment: Some of the mitigating measures you mentioned cannot be done at the farmers’ or even theLGU levels without the enabling environment. The national government may have to step in with thenecessary policy interventions to make them work.Suggestion: The author should have considered the conversion of agricultural lands to residential areasamong the simulation scenarios.International Conference on Climate Change Impactsand <strong>Adaptation</strong> for Food and Environmental SecurityConference Summary Report
52Parallel Sessions 4: Systems and Tools for Analysing Climate Change Impacts and VulnerabilityParallel Session 4BMethodological Framework for the Decision Support Systemfor Climate Change <strong>Adaptation</strong> in Rainfed Rice AreasAnita A. Boling, PhDPostdoctoral Fellow, International Rice Research Institute, PhilippinesThis study being conducted in the Philippines, Indonesia, and Lao PDR aims to develop amethodological framework for an integrated decision support system (DSS) for rainfed rice production.Using a variety of data from various sources, simulations were undertaken to come up with a range ofoptions that should help farmers adapt to the impacts of climate change.Experiments were conducted in greenhouse and field conditions to find out how different rice linesrespond to varying conditions such as weather/climate (e.g., temperature, solar radiation, rainfall),water management, and fertiliser management. Farmers were also interviewed to learn about theirpractices vis-à-vis climate-related constraints, such as impending drought or high rainfall.Data from the experiments, real-time and seasonal weather forecasts, including farmers’ practicesare analysed. Resulting information are further defined and evaluated, and fed into the model tosimulate potential rice yields under varying conditions. Expected outputs of the research would bepotential management interventions in the following aspects: planting date(s) for specific weatherscenario forecasts; rice variety and promising lines; including options for crop establishment methods,recommended nutrient management options, irrigation management, and tillage practices.Regional and Climate Simulations: Current Performance,Key Challenges, and the Fundamental Importanceof their Coupling with End User ModelsVolker Wulfmeyer, PhDProfessor, University of Hohenheim, GermanyDr. Wulfmeyer stressed the importanceof seamless prediction of weather andclimate in order to protect lives andproperty from extreme weather events.With current available technology, hedeclared that we could have a decentweather forecast range of two tothree weeks (the limit of atmosphericpredictability) and seasonal climateforecasts to predict events of drought orhigh precipitation for three to six months.According to him, such seasonal scalesare important for agriculture and foodsecurity. Decadal climate projections, onthe other hand, are an important basis forputting in place the needed infrastructureor services for the public.International Conference on Climate Change Impactsand <strong>Adaptation</strong> for Food and Environmental SecurityConference Summary Report