Residential care for older persons in Belgium: what are the future ...

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Transition & projection model limitations• Not all relevant data are available• Level of disability (number of ADL limitations)• Informal care from outside the household• Income, education, home ownership• Formal LTC not paid by INAMI / RIZIV (home care)• No data on local variations in supply of care (waiting lists?)• Data limited to 2004-09, not possible to identify time trends• No projections for Belgium for disability or chronicconditionsplan.be
Projection methodCell-based macro-projection model• Cells defined by• Year (2010 – 2025)• Age category (5 year intervals)• Sex• Province+• Living situation (4 variables)• Chronic conditions (5 variables)• Variables in each cell• Number in population• Risk (%) of disability• % in each LTC situation• Projection results by aggregation across cells, weighted by numberin population• Calibration to 2010 total according to RIZIV data (125.500)•Necessary because of residential care ‘immigrants’plan.be
Page 1 and 2: Workshop “Toekomstige behoeften a
Page 3 and 4: Policy backgroundRecent trends in s
Page 5 and 6: Policy backgroundAlternative forms
Page 7 and 8: Research aim• Projection of the n
Page 10 and 11: Transition model database 1: EPSMai
Page 12 and 13: Transition model database 2: HIS 20
Page 14 and 15: Transition model of LTC useModel of
Page 16 and 17: Transitions in LTC situations after
Page 18 and 19: Transition model: resultsProbabilit
Page 22 and 23: Projection method: set-up of projec
Page 24 and 25: Projection results by province+: ba
Page 26 and 27: Projection results: six alternative
Page 28 and 29: Projection results: six alternative
Page 30: Projection results: six alternative
Page 33: Possible alternatives?• Limit ent

Residential care for older persons in Belgium: what are the future ...

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