Residential care for older persons in Belgium: what are the future ...

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Demographic background:Number of persons by age group and year400000035000003000000250000020000001500000100000050000002000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 206065-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95+• Strong increase in number of 65+ from 2010 on• Increase in number of 80+ accelerates after 2025plan.be
Research aim• Projection of the number of older persons (65+) usingresidential care up to 2025Research steps• Literature review• Determinants of care needs (ADL disability)• Determinants of entry into residential care• Projection models of residential care• Selection of databases• Health Interview by Survey (HIS) 2004 , 2008• Permanent Sample (EPS) 2004-2009• Design of projection model• Estimation of equations• Projectionplan.be
Page 1 and 2: Workshop “Toekomstige behoeften a
Page 3 and 4: Policy backgroundRecent trends in s
Page 5: Policy backgroundAlternative forms
Page 10 and 11: Transition model database 1: EPSMai
Page 12 and 13: Transition model database 2: HIS 20
Page 14 and 15: Transition model of LTC useModel of
Page 16 and 17: Transitions in LTC situations after
Page 18 and 19: Transition model: resultsProbabilit
Page 20 and 21: Transition & projection model limit
Page 22 and 23: Projection method: set-up of projec
Page 24 and 25: Projection results by province+: ba
Page 26 and 27: Projection results: six alternative
Page 28 and 29: Projection results: six alternative
Page 30: Projection results: six alternative
Page 33: Possible alternatives?• Limit ent

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