Residential care for older persons in Belgium: what are the future ...

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Projection results by province+: base scenarioNumber ofpersons inresidential careIncrease in% % aged 85+2010 2025 2025 / 2010 2010 2025Antwerpen-Mechelen 15 294 19 563 28% 12.9% 15.0%Turnhout 3 472 6 142 77% 9.7% 13.0%Brussels 12747 12 223 -4% 16.2% 14.2%Halle-Vilvoorde 6 118 8 843 45% 11.9% 14.7%Leuven 4 824 7 069 47% 12.4% 14.8%Nivelles 4 111 6 082 48% 13.1% 13.7%West-Vlaanderen-Kust 7 772 11 711 51% 12.1% 14.1%West-Vlaanderen-Binnen 7 461 10 494 41% 12.6% 16.2%Gent-Aalst 9 430 13 138 39% 12.4% 15.5%Oost-Vlaanderen-rest 9 065 12 766 41% 11.9% 14.7%Charleroi-Mons-Soignies 10 471 11 753 12% 13.4% 12.3%Hainaut-autre 7 211 8 706 21% 14.4% 13.9%Liège 14 195 17 186 21% 12.8% 13.1%Limburg 5 571 10 390 87% 9.6% 13.0%Luxembourg 2 745 3 401 24% 12.9% 13.2%Namur-Namur 3 531 4 619 31% 13.1% 13.3%Namur-autre 1 481 1 944 31% 13.0% 13.0%Belgium-total 125 500 166 000 32% 12.6% 14.1%plan.be
Projection results: base scenario• Results driven by ageing of the population• Due to importance of age, constant risk of disability, and constanttransition probabilities between care situations• Important differences between provinces in the projectednumber of users of residential care• Due to variation in demographic composition:• Some provinces with few 85+ now will experience strong ageingeffect in near futureplan.be
Page 1 and 2: Workshop “Toekomstige behoeften a
Page 3 and 4: Policy backgroundRecent trends in s
Page 5 and 6: Policy backgroundAlternative forms
Page 7 and 8: Research aim• Projection of the n
Page 10 and 11: Transition model database 1: EPSMai
Page 12 and 13: Transition model database 2: HIS 20
Page 14 and 15: Transition model of LTC useModel of
Page 16 and 17: Transitions in LTC situations after
Page 18 and 19: Transition model: resultsProbabilit
Page 20 and 21: Transition & projection model limit
Page 22 and 23: Projection method: set-up of projec
Page 26 and 27: Projection results: six alternative
Page 28 and 29: Projection results: six alternative
Page 30: Projection results: six alternative
Page 33: Possible alternatives?• Limit ent

Residential care for older persons in Belgium: what are the future ...

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