Residential care for older persons in Belgium: what are the future ...

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Projection results: six alternative scenariosThree alternative scenarios on disability1.“Better education”: the prevalence of chronic conditionsdeclines in line with the increased educational level of eachnew cohort of older persons2.“Morbidity compression” : the risk of disability by age and sexwill decrease in future, in the sense that half of the projectedincreases in longevity are assumed to be spent free of disability3.“ Diabetes epidemic” the prevalence of diabetes will increaseby 5% annually during the projection periodplan.be
Projection results: six alternative scenariosProjected trends in use of residential care according to fourscenarios on disability180.000"Unchanged disability""Diabetes epidemic""Better education""Morbidity compression"170.000160.000150.000140.000130.000120.0002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025plan.be
Page 1 and 2: Workshop “Toekomstige behoeften a
Page 3 and 4: Policy backgroundRecent trends in s
Page 5 and 6: Policy backgroundAlternative forms
Page 7 and 8: Research aim• Projection of the n
Page 10 and 11: Transition model database 1: EPSMai
Page 12 and 13: Transition model database 2: HIS 20
Page 14 and 15: Transition model of LTC useModel of
Page 16 and 17: Transitions in LTC situations after
Page 18 and 19: Transition model: resultsProbabilit
Page 20 and 21: Transition & projection model limit
Page 22 and 23: Projection method: set-up of projec
Page 24 and 25: Projection results by province+: ba
Page 28 and 29: Projection results: six alternative
Page 30: Projection results: six alternative
Page 33: Possible alternatives?• Limit ent

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