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18World2000 International voice trafficThe effects of telecom market liberalization beganto take hold in 1999, having been initiated in manycountries only one year earlier. Falling retail prices,combined with the sustained rapid growth of mobilephone usage, caused traffic growth to surge fromapproximately 13% in 1998 to over 15% in 1999.Worldwide international telephone traffic volumereached 107.8 billion minutes in 1999. The stronggrowth of international public switched minutesappears all the more remarkable in light of slumpingfax traffic volumes and the increasing number ofminutes moving off the PSTN thanks to bypassmechanisms such as VoIP. Such trends during1999 suggest that the international telecom industryhad one foot on the accelerator, but the other on thebrake. However, these opposite moves lead to aglobal positive result, mainly due to:- the explosion of mobile telephony: tens of millionsof new mobile subscribers boosted international callvolumes in 1999 and 2000. The surge in crossborderroaming calls also contributed to heavier callvolumes,- intensifying competition: competition hasintensified far more quickly in countries whichliberalized their international long distance marketsin the late 90s (notably most European Unionmember states), compared to the more gradualincreases observed in those markets thatliberalized 10 to 15 years ago (US, UK, Japan),- new carriers: the rise of the multinational carriermodel is one reason why incumbent market sharesare shrinking more quickly in the newly liberalizedmarkets than in countries that introducedcompetition in the 80s and early 90s,- price cuts: fierce price competition has spurredcall volume growth in many countries. However, itappears that competitive pressure has been sointense in some countries that prices have fallenmuch faster than demand can possibly increase (forinstance, in Germany). Growth of international voice outgoing traffic (in billion minutes)1995 1999 2000 2001Western Europe: 22.0 42.8 49.7 56.4Germany 5.2 7.0 8.1 9.3UK 4.0 10.1 12.0 13.8France 2.8 5.0 5.6 6.2Italy 1.9 3.1 3.5 3.9North America: 19.9 35.3 39.3 44.0USA 15.6 29.6 33.0 37.0Asia-Pacific: 14.9 15.8 18.9 22.7Japan 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.3Rest of the World: 10.8 14.0 16.1 19.3Eastern countries 3.5 4.0 4.6 5.5Latin America 3.1 4.5 5.2 6.2Africa/Middle east 4.2 5.5 6.3 7.6Total 61.6 107.8 124.0 142.6Source: Telegeography, IDATE estimates© IDATE www.idate.fr