gentrification

not necessarily mean gentrification is occurring, since the growth of incomes could be attributable tothe growth in incomes of original residents. 7LEADING INDICATORSAre there ways to anticipate impending gentrification? Those we interviewed for the casestudies suggest that a combination of the following static and dynamic indicators mayprovide insight as to which communities are beginning the gentrification process.Conditions indicating likelihood of gentrification• High rate of renters• Ease of access to job centers (freeways, public transit, reverse commutes, newsubway stations or ferry routes)• High and increasing levels of metropolitan congestion• High architectural value• Comparatively low housing valuesTrends indicating gentrification in progress• Shift from rental tenure to homeownership• Increase in downpayment ratios, decline in FHA-financing• Influx of households and individuals interested in specifically urban amenitiesand cultural niches (e.g., artists, young professionals, gay/lesbian households)• Influx of amenities that serve higher income levels, for instance music clubs andgalleries, valet parking, new Starbucks locations, etc.2. Suburban Areas See Much Faster GrowthWhile gentrification is occurring in some urban cores, it is important to remember that thevast majority of homeowners buy outside gentrifying areas, and America’s suburbs continue toexpand much more rapidly than its city centers. Populations increased seven times faster on anannual basis between 1990 and 1996 in the American suburbs compared to its cities, 8 and 70percent of loans made in 1997 financed properties in the suburbs. 9 In a recent examination of realestate trends in eight metropolitan areas, Wyly and Hammel found substantial increases inconventional home purchase loan volumes in what they considered to be core and fringe urbanneighborhoods between 1992 and 1997. During this period, conventional home loans in areas theyconsidered to be gentrifying grew from $358 million to $763 million, an increase of 129 percent overthis period. While this growth rate substantially exceeded the growth rate for other parts of their7 See Strategic Economics, Gentrification: Causes, Indicators, and Possible Policy Responses for the SanFrancisco Bay Area, Berkeley, CA, September, 1999, pp. 37-41, for an extended discussion of gentrificationmeasures, their complexity and limitations.8 Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, The State of the Nation’s Housing, 1999, p. 33, TableA-5.9 Ibid., p. 34, Table A-6.8