Social, Cultural and Educational Legacies - ER - NASA

What’s Next for Human Spaceflight?Norman AugustineFormer president and CEO of Lockheed Martin Corporation and recipient of many honorsfor his national defense, homeland security, and science policy accomplishments.Parachuting an instrument package onto the summit of Mt. Everest would, without question,have been a significant and exciting scientific contribution. But would it have had the broadimpact of Sir Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay standing atop the 29,035 ft peak?There are many important missions that can and should be accomplished with roboticspacecraft, but when it comes to inspiring a nation, motivating young would-be scientists andengineers and adaptively exploring new frontiers, there is nothing like a human presence.But humans best serve a nation’s space goals when employed not as truck drivers but ratherwhen they have the opportunity to exploit that marvelous human trait: flexibility. A primeexample is the on-orbit repair of the Hubble Space Telescope using the shuttle. Without thatcapability for in situ human intervention, Hubble, itself a monumental accomplishment,would have been judged a failure. Indeed, there are important missions for both humans androbots in space—but each is at its best when it does not try to invade the other’s territory.So what is next for human spaceflight? There is a whole spectrum of interesting possibilitiesthat range from exploring Mars, Demos, or Phoebus, to establishing a station on the moonor at a neutral gravity point. It would seem that the 1990 recommendations of the WhiteHouse/NASA commission on the Future of the U.S. Space Program still make a lot of sense.These include designating Mars as the primary long-term objective of the human spaceprogram, most likely with the moon as a scientific base and stepping-off point, and gettingon with developing a new heavy-lift launch capability (probably based on the shuttle’sExternal Tank).The cost of space transportation was, and is today, the most intransigent impediment to humanspace travel. The mission traffic models are sparse; the development costs large; the hazard ofinfant mortality of new vehicles daunting; and the arithmetic of discounted cost accountingand amortization intimidating. Thus, at least in my opinion, the true breakthrough in humanspaceflight will occur only when space tourism becomes a reality. Yes, space tourism. Thereis a close parallel to the circumstance when World War II solved the chicken and egg problemof commercial air travel.By space tourism I do not refer to a few wealthy individuals experiencing a few momentsof exposure to high altitudes and zero g’s. Rather, I mean a day or two on orbit for largenumbers of people, peering through telescopes, taking photographs, eating, and exercising.There are, of course, those who would dismiss any such notion as fantasy—but what mightthe Wright Brothers have said if told that within the century the entire population of Houstonwould each day climb aboard an airplane somewhere in the US and complain that they hadalready seen the movie? Or Scott and Amundsen if informed that 14,000 people would visit© 2009, Norman Augustine. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. All rights reserved.502The Shuttle Continuum