Impact of 21st Century Climate Change on Baltic Sea Fish ... - BALTEX

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<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>, Eutrophication,and Cod in the Future Baltic:Increased precipitationand run<strong>of</strong>f loading<strong>of</strong> nutrients; warmer TReduced nutrientloading; more stormsFrequent and longerperiods <strong>of</strong> anoxia?Fewer and shorterperiods <strong>of</strong> anoxia?MacKenzie et al. 2002CJFAS-outcome not clear-requires process modelling
Baltic Sea Management and ConservationPolicy Objectives (BSAP 2007)-reduce nutrient loading-rebuild seal populations-negative consequences for cod??(lowering overall productivity <strong>of</strong> system andincreasing abundance <strong>of</strong> a cod predator)-consider ecosystem <strong>of</strong> the past…look for past evidence<strong>of</strong> abundances and distributions (develop baselines)-archives, paleo data, etc.
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Impact of<
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Variations in Spawner Biomass <stro
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Trends in Exploitation and Adult Bi
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Effects of Fishing
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Baltic Sea - hydrographic gradients
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Spawner Biomass of
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Species Interactions: Cod & Clupeid
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Estimating Effects of</stro
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Data Sources: Ocean Monitoring-comp
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Long-term Temperature Variability i
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Extreme YearsSST, Q319Torungen18171
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Effects of Past Oc
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Sprat Recruitment and SpawnerBiomas
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Zooplankton ConcentrationsHigher in
Page 29 and 30:
Long-term Temperature VariabilitySp
Page 31 and 32:
Climate-Hydrograph
Page 33 and 34: Management Application:Risk <strong
Page 35 and 36: Survival of Baltic
Page 37 and 38: Timing of Garfish
Page 39 and 40: Anchovy Spawning in Kattegat-ichthy
Page 41 and 42: Will Warm Invaders Reproducein the
Page 43 and 44: Cod Spawner Biomass and Recruitment
Page 45 and 46: Cod Recruitment per Spawner4Recruit
Page 47 and 48: Exercise Results:Cod Spawner Biomas
Page 49 and 50: Exercise 1: ConclusionsAbundance <s
Page 51 and 52: Cod Spawning Areas in the Baltic Se
Page 53 and 54: Variability in Cod Reproductive Vol
Page 55 and 56: Salinity, Zooplankton and Larval Co
Page 57 and 58: Oxygen Depletion Rate Following aMa
Page 59 and 60: Physical - Biogeochemical Processes
Page 61 and 62: Oceanographic Modeling of</
Page 63 and 64: Inter-annual Variability inCod Repr
Page 65 and 66: Future Climate <st
Page 67 and 68: Future Baltic Salinity in 2070-2100
Page 69 and 70: Exercise 2: Climate</strong
Page 72 and 73: Uncertainty of Pro
Page 74 and 75: Scenarios for GroupsGroup Salinity
Page 76 and 77: Projected Effects of</stron
Page 78: Future Climate <st
Page 81 and 82: Cod in a Future Low-Nutrient Baltic
Page 83: Cod in a Future Low-Nutrient Baltic
Page 87 and 88: Cod Fishing in the Southern Baltic,
Page 89 and 90: Range Variability of</stron
Page 91 and 92: Annual Cod Exports from Southern Fi
Page 93 and 94: Central-Northern Swedish Cod Landin
Page 95 and 96: Cod in a Hostile Baltic?How could t
Page 98 and 99: Food Webs and Trophic CascadesPauly
Page 100 and 101: Trophic Cascades in Marine Foodwebs
Page 102 and 103: Trophic Cascade in a Marine Foodweb
Page 104 and 105: Hydrographic Effects on Trophic Int
Page 106 and 107: Cod Abundance and Cascading Effects
Page 108 and 109: Regime shifts in the Baltic ecosyst
Page 110: Early 20th Century
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Impact of 21st Century Climate Change on Baltic Sea Fish ... - BALTEX

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