Impact of 21st Century Climate Change on Baltic Sea Fish ... - BALTEX

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Baltic Ecosystem Status During 1550-1630Contemporary knowledge suggests it couldhave been “cod-hostile” (!):Primary Production(106 t C/yr)Lower 1 º Prodn.Elmgren 198960504030201001900 1980High seal predation & compet.Fish consumed bymarine mammals (kt/yr)3503002502001501005001900 1980Elmgren 1989-but cod biomass was high and widespread in Baltic(supported economically important fisheriesin northern and southern Baltic)MacKenzie et al. 2007 Fish. Res.
Cod in a Hostile Baltic?How could there be important fisheries in the (northern) Balticin an apparently cod-hostile ecosystem?Hypotheses:1. Better salinity and oxygen conditions? (positive effects on recruitmentand spatial distribution)-needs paleo-evidence2. Fishing effort and mortality rates were much lower than now.-allowed cod biomass to remain high, despite potentially lower 1º prodn.and higher predation rates and food competition due to seals-is very likely (simpler technologies, no fishing <strong>of</strong>fshore, etc.)MacKenzie et al. 2007 Fish. Res.
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Impact of<
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Variations in Spawner Biomass <stro
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Trends in Exploitation and Adult Bi
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Effects of Fishing
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Baltic Sea - hydrographic gradients
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Spawner Biomass of
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Species Interactions: Cod & Clupeid
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Estimating Effects of</stro
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Data Sources: Ocean Monitoring-comp
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Long-term Temperature Variability i
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Extreme YearsSST, Q319Torungen18171
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Effects of Past Oc
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Sprat Recruitment and SpawnerBiomas
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Zooplankton ConcentrationsHigher in
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Long-term Temperature VariabilitySp
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Climate-Hydrograph
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Management Application:Risk <strong
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Survival of Baltic
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Timing of Garfish
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Anchovy Spawning in Kattegat-ichthy
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Will Warm Invaders Reproducein the
Page 43 and 44: Cod Spawner Biomass and Recruitment
Page 45 and 46: Cod Recruitment per Spawner4Recruit
Page 47 and 48: Exercise Results:Cod Spawner Biomas
Page 49 and 50: Exercise 1: ConclusionsAbundance <s
Page 51 and 52: Cod Spawning Areas in the Baltic Se
Page 53 and 54: Variability in Cod Reproductive Vol
Page 55 and 56: Salinity, Zooplankton and Larval Co
Page 57 and 58: Oxygen Depletion Rate Following aMa
Page 59 and 60: Physical - Biogeochemical Processes
Page 61 and 62: Oceanographic Modeling of</
Page 63 and 64: Inter-annual Variability inCod Repr
Page 65 and 66: Future Climate <st
Page 67 and 68: Future Baltic Salinity in 2070-2100
Page 69 and 70: Exercise 2: Climate</strong
Page 72 and 73: Uncertainty of Pro
Page 74 and 75: Scenarios for GroupsGroup Salinity
Page 76 and 77: Projected Effects of</stron
Page 78: Future Climate <st
Page 81 and 82: Cod in a Future Low-Nutrient Baltic
Page 83 and 84: Cod in a Future Low-Nutrient Baltic
Page 85 and 86: Baltic Sea Management and Conservat
Page 87 and 88: Cod Fishing in the Southern Baltic,
Page 89 and 90: Range Variability of</stron
Page 91 and 92: Annual Cod Exports from Southern Fi
Page 93: Central-Northern Swedish Cod Landin
Page 98 and 99: Food Webs and Trophic CascadesPauly
Page 100 and 101: Trophic Cascades in Marine Foodwebs
Page 102 and 103: Trophic Cascade in a Marine Foodweb
Page 104 and 105: Hydrographic Effects on Trophic Int
Page 106 and 107: Cod Abundance and Cascading Effects
Page 108 and 109: Regime shifts in the Baltic ecosyst
Page 110: Early 20th Century
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Impact of 21st Century Climate Change on Baltic Sea Fish ... - BALTEX

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