E C O N O M I C R E P O R T O F T H E P R E S I D E N T

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THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERSEconomic Report of the President | 9
LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS,Washington, D.C., February 10, 2000.MR. PRESIDENT:The Council of Economic Advisers herewith submits its 2000 AnnualReport in accordance with the provisions of the Employment Act of 1946 asamended by the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978.Sincerely,Martin N. Baily,ChairmanRobert Z. Lawrence,MemberKathryn L. Shaw,Member-NomineeEconomic Report of the President | 11
Page 1 and 2: E C O N O M I CR E P O R TO F T H E
Page 3 and 4: C O N T E N T SPageECONOMIC REPORT
Page 5 and 6: ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
Page 7 and 8: my State of the Union address, I pr
Page 9: hard-pressed families—with additi
Page 13 and 14: PageSources of Business Cycle Moder
Page 15 and 16: PageHeterogeneity in Abatement Bene
Page 17 and 18: Page2-3. Net Worth and the Personal
Page 19 and 20: PageLIST OF BOXES2-1. The CPI-U-RS,
Page 21 and 22: These successes notwithstanding, th
Page 23 and 24: $33,740, Americans today can acquir
Page 25 and 26: those in the highest decile rose 0.
Page 27 and 28: Data on poverty also show progress.
Page 29 and 30: Over the years, government support
Page 31 and 32: asis, the current expansion also sh
Page 33 and 34: The current expansion, by contrast,
Page 35 and 36: InflationAccelerating inflation pos
Page 37 and 38: it was argued, must be shifting the
Page 39 and 40: is that the direction of technologi
Page 41 and 42: Challenges for the FutureThis chapt
Page 43 and 44: in the new labor market. The chapte
Page 45 and 46: disruptive in some cases. Finally,
Page 47 and 48: C H A P T E R 2Macroeconomic Policy
Page 49 and 50: Chapter 2 | 51
Page 51 and 52: usiness cycle has changed over the
Page 53 and 54: cent over the four quarters of 1999
Page 55 and 56: framework that continues to pay dow
Page 57 and 58: The labor force participation rate
Page 59 and 60: Box 2-1.—continuedof no substitut
Page 61 and 62:
feed directly into the index. Moreo
Page 63 and 64:
funds rate (the interest rate that
Page 65 and 66:
nesses with below-investment-grade
Page 67 and 68:
From 1989 to 1999, corporate earnin
Page 69 and 70:
ital includes the value of intellec
Page 71 and 72:
of gross personal saving to GDP has
Page 73 and 74:
The beginnings and ends of U.S. bus
Page 75 and 76:
introduced in 1913 and Social Secur
Page 77 and 78:
Of course, it is premature to decla
Page 79 and 80:
Box 2-3.What Did We Learn from the
Page 81 and 82:
TABLE 2-3.— Accounting for the Pr
Page 83 and 84:
future extrapolates long-term trend
Page 85 and 86:
Over the past 6 years, the CPI-U-RS
Page 87 and 88:
work enables job hunters to work wh
Page 89 and 90:
Chart 2-17 shows how this could hap
Page 91 and 92:
of professional economic forecaster
Page 93 and 94:
Administration’s forecast is used
Page 95 and 96:
Innovations during the 20th century
Page 97 and 98:
transformations the Internet and e-
Page 99 and 100:
Another industry that saw major cha
Page 101 and 102:
One example is the “lean” produ
Page 103 and 104:
Box 3-1. Measuring the Economy in a
Page 105 and 106:
Box 3-2. Implementing Local Competi
Page 107 and 108:
of fiber optic cable deployed by te
Page 109 and 110:
How Information Technology IsChangi
Page 111 and 112:
total investment in information tec
Page 113 and 114:
For e-retailers, the Internet repla
Page 115 and 116:
suppliers for surplus quantities of
Page 117 and 118:
However, the same technology that d
Page 119 and 120:
value of each network to its users.
Page 121 and 122:
many possible uses but that depends
Page 123 and 124:
Maintaining CompetitionAnother way
Page 125 and 126:
Similarly, by reducing barriers to
Page 127 and 128:
Formal education was a far less imp
Page 129 and 130:
The Transformation of the Labor Mar
Page 131 and 132:
Americans has risen almost 10-fold
Page 133 and 134:
diploma (Chart 4-5). That same year
Page 135 and 136:
ensuring equal opportunity for all
Page 137 and 138:
those of men (again looking at full
Page 139 and 140:
Box 4-1. The Role of Government Pol
Page 141 and 142:
severe disabilities. For example, a
Page 143 and 144:
Box 4-2.—continuedOther policy in
Page 145 and 146:
equirements of jobs. To right this
Page 147 and 148:
uild and maintain a world-class ele
Page 149 and 150:
Class Size Reduction. Average class
Page 151 and 152:
During this Administration, the Fed
Page 153 and 154:
years ago. In 2000, 13.1 million st
Page 155 and 156:
through a period of unpaid training
Page 157 and 158:
The first major mandatory training
Page 159 and 160:
a 30-year low, labor force particip
Page 161 and 162:
ConclusionTwo key developments—th
Page 163 and 164:
TABLE 5-1.—Contrasting American F
Page 165 and 166:
opened up for women to work and as
Page 167 and 168:
The increased prevalence of single-
Page 169 and 170:
to an increasing share of the popul
Page 171 and 172:
Box 5-1.—continuedAlthough most f
Page 173 and 174:
For the past 50 years, the median i
Page 175 and 176:
gle mothers the median rose from $1
Page 177 and 178:
TABLE 5-3.— Share of Women with C
Page 179 and 180:
income growth over the last 30 year
Page 181 and 182:
consumption patterns have changed,
Page 183 and 184:
Increases in the Minimum WageThe mi
Page 185 and 186:
Box 5-4.The National Strategy to Re
Page 187 and 188:
or older, and of those 85 or older,
Page 189 and 190:
of single-parent families increased
Page 191 and 192:
caregivers for the elderly say thei
Page 193 and 194:
would allow all workers who get tim
Page 195 and 196:
C H A P T E R 6Opportunity and Chal
Page 197 and 198:
Meanwhile innovations in transporta
Page 199 and 200:
But to look at U.S. trade only in t
Page 201 and 202:
Data from the U.S. computer industr
Page 203 and 204:
net indebtedness of about 18 percen
Page 205 and 206:
capital flows. Coupled with other d
Page 207 and 208:
forces to play themselves out. In t
Page 209 and 210:
The Benefits of a Global EconomyThe
Page 211 and 212:
Domestic production can expand when
Page 213 and 214:
In short, increased globalization b
Page 215 and 216:
key sectors such as finance, teleco
Page 217 and 218:
international trade is not a zero-s
Page 219 and 220:
As these data suggest, not all WTO
Page 221 and 222:
For example, preferential U.S. trad
Page 223 and 224:
By contrast, in 1998 output fell on
Page 225 and 226:
Box 6-3.The New International Finan
Page 227 and 228:
The key objective of the initiative
Page 229 and 230:
Chapter 6 | 233
Page 231 and 232:
demand for exports. It would be a m
Page 233 and 234:
integrating with the world economy
Page 235 and 236:
The past century of experience in a
Page 237 and 238:
242 | Economic Report of the Presid
Page 239 and 240:
Box 7-1.—continuedand energy pric
Page 241 and 242:
Box 7-2.—continuedproviding usefu
Page 243 and 244:
Incentive-Based Approaches to Addre
Page 245 and 246:
compliance costs may fall by less t
Page 247 and 248:
Box 7-4.—continuedroughly 5 to 15
Page 249 and 250:
so a system of multipollutant tradi
Page 251 and 252:
sulfur dioxide trading program. The
Page 253 and 254:
coastal zone. Trades can occur with
Page 255 and 256:
Permit Trading: Phasedown of Leaded
Page 257 and 258:
To address the problems associated
Page 259 and 260:
Box 7-5. Individual Quotas for Fish
Page 261 and 262:
A landmark international agreement
Page 263 and 264:
However, the country could cut ener
Page 265 and 266:
Quantitative Restrictions on Tradin
Page 267 and 268:
comprehensive domestic trading syst
Page 269 and 270:
Box 7-9.—continuedthe use of ener
Page 271 and 272:
C O N C L U S I O NA Century of Cha
Page 273 and 274:
More than 40 percent of the work fo
Page 275 and 276:
growth and are credited with helpin
Page 277 and 278:
have much to gain from continuing t
Page 279 and 280:
Appendix AREPORT TO THE PRESIDENT O
Page 281 and 282:
Council Members and Their Dates of
Page 283 and 284:
previously served as the New Centur
Page 285 and 286:
(antidumping, countervailing duties
Page 287 and 288:
with a number of developing countri
Page 289 and 290:
Michael Treadway provided editorial
Page 291:
Appendix BSTATISTICAL TABLES RELATI
Page 294 and 295:
POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND
Page 296 and 297:
AGRICULTURE:PageB-95. Farm income,
Page 298 and 299:
NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
Page 300 and 301:
TABLE B-2.—Real gross domestic pr
Page 302 and 303:
TABLE B-3.—Quantity and price ind
Page 304 and 305:
TABLE B-5.—Contributions to perce
Page 306 and 307:
TABLE B-6.—Chain-type quantity in
Page 308 and 309:
TABLE B-7.—Chain-type price index
Page 310 and 311:
TABLE B-8.—Gross domestic product
Page 312 and 313:
Year orquarterGrossdomesticproductT
Page 314 and 315:
TABLE B-12.—Gross product of nonf
Page 316 and 317:
TABLE B-14.—Personal consumption
Page 318 and 319:
TABLE B-16.—Private gross fixed i
Page 320 and 321:
TABLE B-18.—Government consumptio
Page 322 and 323:
TABLE B-20.—Private inventories a
Page 324 and 325:
Year orquarterTABLE B-22.—Foreign
Page 326 and 327:
TABLE B-24.—Relation of gross dom
Page 328 and 329:
Year orquarterTABLE B-26.—Nationa
Page 330 and 331:
TABLE B-27.—Sources of personal i
Page 332 and 333:
TABLE B-28.—Disposition of person
Page 334 and 335:
TABLE B-30.—Gross saving and inve
Page 336 and 337:
TABLE B-31.—Median money income (
Page 338 and 339:
TABLE B-33.—Civilian population a
Page 340 and 341:
TABLE B-34.—Civilian employment a
Page 342 and 343:
TABLE B-36.—Unemployment by demog
Page 344 and 345:
TABLE B-38.—Civilian labor force
Page 346 and 347:
TABLE B-40.—Civilian unemployment
Page 348 and 349:
TABLE B-42.—Unemployment by durat
Page 350 and 351:
TABLE B-44.—Employees on nonagric
Page 352 and 353:
TABLE B-45.—Hours and earnings in
Page 354 and 355:
Year orquarterOutput per hourof all
Page 356 and 357:
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYTAB
Page 358 and 359:
TABLE B-51.—Industrial production
Page 360 and 361:
Year or monthTABLE B-53.—New cons
Page 362 and 363:
TABLE B-55.—Manufacturing and tra
Page 364 and 365:
Year or monthTotalTABLE B-57.—Man
Page 366 and 367:
Year ormonthTABLE B-59.—Consumer
Page 368 and 369:
TABLE B-60.—Consumer price indexe
Page 370 and 371:
TABLE B-62.—Changes in consumer p
Page 372 and 373:
TABLE B-63.—Producer price indexe
Page 374 and 375:
TABLE B-65.—Producer price indexe
Page 376 and 377:
TABLE B-66.—Changes in producer p
Page 378 and 379:
TABLE B-68.—Components of money s
Page 380 and 381:
TABLE B-69.—Aggregate reserves of
Page 382 and 383:
Year andmonthBills(new issues) 13-m
Page 384 and 385:
TABLE B-72.—Credit market borrowi
Page 386 and 387:
TABLE B-73.—Mortgage debt outstan
Page 388 and 389:
TABLE B-75.—Consumer credit outst
Page 390 and 391:
TABLE B-77.—Federal budget receip
Page 392 and 393:
TABLE B-79.—Federal receipts, out
Page 394 and 395:
TABLE B-81.—Federal and State and
Page 396 and 397:
TABLE B-83.—State and local gover
Page 398 and 399:
TABLE B-85.—Interest-bearing publ
Page 400 and 401:
End of monthTABLE B-87.—Estimated
Page 402 and 403:
TABLE B-89.—Corporate profits by
Page 404 and 405:
TABLE B-91.—Sales, profits, and s
Page 406 and 407:
Year or monthTABLE B-93.—Common s
Page 408 and 409:
AGRICULTURETABLE B-95.—Farm incom
Page 410 and 411:
TABLE B-97.—Farm output and produ
Page 412 and 413:
Year ormonthTABLE B-99.—Indexes o
Page 414 and 415:
Year orquarterExportsINTERNATIONAL
Page 416 and 417:
TABLE B-102.—U.S. international t
Page 418 and 419:
TABLE B-104.—U.S. international t
Page 420 and 421:
TABLE B-106.—Industrial productio
Page 422 and 423:
PeriodTABLE B-108.—Foreign exchan
Page 424:
TABLE B-110.—Growth rates in real
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