20 Resilient July 23/30, 2012 Vinyl sales hit record high By Raymond Pina Sales of vinyl sheet and tile flooring hit a record high wholesale value of $2.11 billion in the U.S. last year, according to Catalina Research. Though total 2011 vinyl floor sales grew 5.8 percent in value and 3.2 percent in volume, it is the ongoing 15 percent growth in higher priced luxury vinyl tile (LVT) and fiberglass sheet flooring that has pushed the segment to record heights. Gains in up-market LVT and fiberglass volume forced 2011 average vinyl floor pricing up 2.9 percent over 2010. The category’s average square foot price has jumped a remarkable 22 percent since 2007. “New innovative products, many incorporating locking systems for the first time, stimulated demand and led to vinyl taking share from every other category,” said Stuart Hirschhorn, director of research, Catalina Research. “What’s more, commercial, especially replacement commercial, faired better during the recession than the residential sector and vinyl has a huge concentration of that commercial business. 2011 key points Vinyl sheet and fl oor tile sales hit record high with category sales increasing 5.8 percent in value and 3.2 percent in volume. Average square foot pricing for vinyl increased 2.9 percent this year over last year and increased 22 percent from 2007. Vinyl imports decreased 6.2 percent in 2011 as suppliers increase domestic production of LVT and fiberglass sheet. Other resilient flooring — which includes cork, other plastics, rubber and linoleum — increased in sales value by 4.2 percent but decreased 2.5 percent in volume in 2011. Average square foot pricing has increased 43.7 percent since 2007. Chart 25 Resilient purchases by end-use market (Total: $2,396.3 million) 0.6% 0.1% Vinyl floors also had the highest increases in pricing due to record oil and raw material costs but they still remained competitive and highly desirable, if not more so.” Sales of commercial vinyl composition tiles (VCT) also grew an estimated 3.3 percent in volume to 1.01 billion square feet, according to Hirschhorn. Leading executives, who have reported double-digit increases in their LVT and fiberglass businesses over the past three years, agreed with Catalina Research’s overall category growth rates, but remain hesitant to declare 2011 a record year. “Having the category up 5 percent sounds about right, but I don’t think anyone would paint 2011 as a historically positive year,” noted Allen Cubell, vice president, residential product management, Armstrong Floor Products. While LVT, fiberglass and VCT continue to grow, Catalina Research estimates traditional felt-backed vinyl sheet sales declined 7 percent to 907 million square feet in 2011, with volumes evenly split between the residential and commercial markets. What’s more, the report highlights that fiberglass volumes, accounting for 195 million square feet of sales in 2011, is trending to reach traditional felt numbers by 2015. “We see 2011 fiberglass sales at 184 million square feet; so we’re in the same ballpark,” said David Sheehan, vice president of residential resilient business, Mannington. “Residentially, we see vinyl sheet at 462 million square feet. Sheet vinyl was up until 2010 when fiberglass sales started kicking in and we think fiberglass now represents about 40 percent of residential sheet.” Similarly, Catalina Research estimates 2011 LVT sales volume at 785 million square feet. But some companies that focus primarily on high end branded product said the number is higher than their own estimates. “You’d have to think a lot of that number includes peel-and-stick tiles where the defini- Chart 26 Vinyl sheet and floor tile market value and volume (in billions) 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 $1.93(R) 3.27 $2.11(R) 3.25 tion of LVT kind of runs amuck,” explained Cubell. “Lowe’s and Menards do bring in a lot of cheap tile from Asia. If Catalina is looking at those imported cash-and-carry tiles, then I can understand how it gets to its number.” Hirschhorn added, “There was a large jump in peel-and-stick tile sales at home centers where laminate would have traditionally been used. There was also a record number of new suppliers entering the LVT market.” Imports decline, domestics grows Despite a large number of suppliers, distributors and retailers expanding into the vinyl Chart 27 $1.82(R) 2.78 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Market sales Square feet R=Revised Vinyl sheet and floor tile imports value and volume (in millions) 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 650 400 200 0 Chart 28 $605.8 1,503.7 $687.6 1,481.8 $613.8 1,247.4 $2.00(R) $728.8 2.86 1,335.2 $2.11 $764.4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2.95 1,251.8 Market sales Square feet R=Revised Source: Catalina Research Vinyl sheet and floor tile exports value and volume (in millions) 400 market with imported LVT in 2011, Catalina Research has category imports declining 6.2 percent for the year — mostly due to a shift towards increased domestic production. “It makes sense that vinyl imports were down last year with both IVC US and Armstrong making fiberglass here in the states,” said Cubell. “We shut down a tile and VCT plant in Montreal, Canada which brought our imported tiles way down. And we shut our fiberglass plant in England so our imported fiberglass went to zero. And those import numbers are only going to keep decreasing as Continued on page 22 11.6% 31.2% Commercial new construction $747.5 million Residential replacement $743.5 million Commercial replacement $611.1 million 350 300 250 200 301.2 331.7 310.5 377.6 363.3 25.5% Residential builders $278.0 million Manufactured housing $13.8 million 150 100 50 $138.0 $160.9 $141.6 $163.8 $176.8 31.0% Transportation equipment $2.4 million Source: Catalina Research 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Market sales Square feet Source: Catalina Research
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