TABLE OF CONTENTS

global pursuit of knowledge and its application are transforming the global order in
fundamental ways. Over 70 percent of the research and development in the world occurs
outside the U.S. and the bulk of it is in the private sector. Increasingly, neither the U.S.
government nor DoD have much control over the direction, pace, quantity, quality, or
proliferation of science and technology knowledge and its application.
Superiority may be fleeting. Because so much technology is civilian designed,
commercially available, and globally distributed; and so many have access to it; periods
of superiority in militarily critical technologies are likely to be more volatile and shorter
in duration. Periods of superiority in all fields, including the military, may be
increasingly short or even impossible. As transparency increases, secrets will be more
difficult to preserve, while knowledge becomes ubiquitous and available to both state and
non-state actors.
The test of survival is responsiveness to change. The former sources of
dominance—being bigger, stronger, and faster than an opponent—may no longer suffice.
Foresight and adaptability may be the future keys to survival and prosperity.
Increasingly, being smarter—and just as importantly, more clever—may confer the
greatest advantage. The U.S. held a substantial advantage in the industrial age because
the criteria for dominance included massive production. In the coming age, it will not be
enough to out-produce or out-spend an adversary…one must out think him.
Risk, reverses, and reinvention come with the territory. In attempting to cope
with exponential change, risk increases dramatically. This is an inevitable effect of
accelerating change, where change can outpace traditional planning and will necessarily
create more surprise. Surprise in turn creates the necessity to scrap current concepts and