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joint operational planning concepts, effects-based operational principles, capabilitiesbased planning processes, and scenario thinking, a list of most likely adversary capabilities for each scenario was developed. Since common context is the primary deliverable, the uniqueness of each scenario is discussed, as well as aspects that challenge the future choice and application of technology solutions. The American Insurgency scenario depicts a future in which the adversary creates cascading effects to cause the overthrow of the American government. In the Cyber 9/11 scenario, the enemy attacks with informational tools to cripple U.S. infrastructures temporarily. The Blind Battlefield adversary attempts to replace the fog of war that U.S. informational tools typically eliminate. The Guerillas in the Mist scenario demonstrates the adversary’s use of precision attack to drive a wedge between occupiers and the local populace. The four scenarios illustrate challenges and concerns that affect the future procurement and employment of military technology solutions, as adversaries are equal partners in deciding strategic and operational effectiveness. Acquisition Leaders for Rapid Technology Insertion Programs Christopher M. Coombs, Lt Col, USAF In order for the United States to maintain its position as a hegemon, to maintain its technological superiority, and to meet the requirement to fight “any enemy, anywhere, anytime,” the Department of Defense (DoD) must revamp policies and procedures to ensure rapid technology transition. We must have able people and sufficient funding to generate military capability from private sector technological advances as they become available. DoD probability of success in future conflict will be increased by leveraging the experience, training, investments and advances of independent research by civilian companies and universities. This paper reviews the impact of technological advances in
four areas: biotechnology, nanotechnology, cyber technology and directed energy. It also looks at the findings of several Horizons students, and addresses challenges to reforming the acquisition model that stem from people, process, technology and the organizational structure. Recommendations: 1) Review and modify the selection, promotion and assignment of acquisition officers. 2) Inculcate a risk raking rather than a risk averse mentality toward leadership in the realm of ideas. Developing Technical Leaders David W. Hiltz, Lt Col USAF The thesis of this paper is that the Air Force needs to recruit and educate officers who better understand science and engineering, and provide its technical officers a leadership development program that is experience-based. People should be our first investment priority. To be successful in 2025, the acquisition community will need officers who possess great leadership skills and can adapt to rapidly changing technology. Air Force Material Command’s best senior captains and majors in the program management, scientific development and engineering fields need more opportunities to lead people (not simply projects) earlier in their careers. For example, senior captains should formally compete for the best leadership jobs at their product center or depot, as well as operational leadership positions throughout the entire command. Broadening these officers’ leadership experience will enhance the effectiveness and credibility of these officers. General Bernard Schriever illustrated the
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword ……
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Splitting the Atom on the Way to th
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Findings Warfare is changing in fun
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programs to meet the changing envir
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particles, photons moving at the sp
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General Recommendations 1. The USAF
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to coping with emerging technologie
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Conclusion The Horizon 21 study was
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The initial study was comprised of
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After completion of the research pa
Page 25 and 26: Supercomputers will be able to “t
Page 27 and 28: The ideas of 1920 that generated th
Page 29 and 30: that this concept be continually te
Page 31 and 32: for to be either immersive OR inter
Page 33 and 34: vulnerabilities to the cyber domain
Page 35 and 36: networks. 4) The Air Force should a
Page 37 and 38: the past, such as the industrial re
Page 39 and 40: environment like “Virtual Flag”
Page 41 and 42: toward ever-smaller sensor and sens
Page 43 and 44: and electronics and computing. This
Page 45 and 46: gains to offset reduction in size.
Page 47 and 48: 2 The petroleum fuel alternative mu
Page 49 and 50: hostile to the U.S., thus computati
Page 51 and 52: differentiation of stem cells into
Page 53 and 54: Recommendations: 1) The direct ener
Page 55 and 56: and overwhelms the decision-making
Page 57 and 58: importance of lasers in sustaining
Page 59 and 60: ensure it remains ahead of potentia
Page 61 and 62: launch less-capable satellites rout
Page 63 and 64: term partnering incentive industry
Page 65 and 66: shortcomings imposed by the atmosph
Page 67 and 68: 2) Once the Air Force fields SAS, i
Page 69 and 70: equires maturation of a several tec
Page 71 and 72: as the DoD Executive Agent for Spac
Page 73 and 74: provide dynamic and vertically-inte
Page 75: Joel “Spicoli” Luker, Major, US
Page 79 and 80: weapons for time-sensitive targets.
Page 81 and 82: increase situational awareness for
Page 83 and 84: merged RFID, GPS (Global Positionin
Page 85 and 86: gap and enable ubiquitous, fast-res
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