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adversary (notionally referred to as “Bubba Einstein”) could catastrophically employ these technologies. While there may be some technology surprise, (particularly from the unexpected convergence of technologies), the bigger danger is operational surprise generated by first use of novel or existing technology in innovative ways. Coping with these threats requires an operator’s perspective on emerging technology to anticipate operational surprise, vigilant monitoring of adversary war preparation, and the ability to adapt or customize rapidly if surprise occurs. An air campaign can be defeated without an air force. It is entirely possible to use nano particles to contaminate fuels, biological agents to degrade human performance, cyber attack to disrupt time over target, and directed energy to blind pilots—now. The use of these technologies to produce even greater havoc and destruction in the future is guaranteed, and will be possessed by many more actors, state and non-state alike. No potential adversary can compete with the USAF in the air, but they may not need to in the future. Disruptive change will overshadow incremental change. The Air Force Scientific Advisory Board (AFSAB) concluded last summer that sustaining innovation— doing what we now do better and faster—will no longer suffice. Incremental change cannot keep pace with the overall accelerating pace of technological change. We must return to our roots of being a leader of disruptive change in the military and being the leading technological service in introducing new capabilities and concepts to provide for the common defense. Weaponry is increasingly remote, robotic, cheap, small and swift. While the signs of this are with us now, the future will only amplify these tendencies. Nano-scale
particles, photons moving at the speed of light, molecular manipulation of the biosphere and life in it, the ability to create autonomous intelligent machines with sufficient processing power, and the replication of these in large numbers and at small cost, all suggest major changes in war. It may no longer be about conquest involving large numbers of people engaged in lethal, precision, kinetic kill, but increasingly a continuing contest among machines which is non-lethal, non-kinetic, and volumetric (i.e., wide-area oriented) – conducted at great distance over long time periods. Everyone can play. The power of these emerging technologies is such that they can empower the weak and dispossessed to have inordinate impact. Some of the key forces driving technological change are societal demand, scientific discovery, corporate profits, ideological desires, and state and non-state envy and hatred of the U.S. These factors, not simply U.S. preferences, ensure progress for good and ill in war fighting technologies. These are available with increasing frequency and ease as reliance on commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) technology grows. Recapitalization of people and expertise is paramount. Accelerating technological change necessarily demands significant procedural and organizational change. As the USAF reinvents itself in mastering space and cyberspace as well as air, the leadership of enlightened people will be an indispensable element in the process. One cannot overstate the importance of educating and organizing the force to create an agile, adaptive, learning organization capable of contending with the array of adversaries and the pace of technological change we face in the future. Making operators knowledgeable about future science and technology is essential. If the USAF of the future is to be successful, it must recruit, retain, motivate,
Page 2 and 3: TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword ……
Page 4: Splitting the Atom on the Way to th
Page 9 and 10: Findings Warfare is changing in fun
Page 11: programs to meet the changing envir
Page 15 and 16: General Recommendations 1. The USAF
Page 17 and 18: to coping with emerging technologie
Page 19 and 20: Conclusion The Horizon 21 study was
Page 21 and 22: The initial study was comprised of
Page 23 and 24: After completion of the research pa
Page 25 and 26: Supercomputers will be able to “t
Page 27 and 28: The ideas of 1920 that generated th
Page 29 and 30: that this concept be continually te
Page 31 and 32: for to be either immersive OR inter
Page 33 and 34: vulnerabilities to the cyber domain
Page 35 and 36: networks. 4) The Air Force should a
Page 37 and 38: the past, such as the industrial re
Page 39 and 40: environment like “Virtual Flag”
Page 41 and 42: toward ever-smaller sensor and sens
Page 43 and 44: and electronics and computing. This
Page 45 and 46: gains to offset reduction in size.
Page 47 and 48: 2 The petroleum fuel alternative mu
Page 49 and 50: hostile to the U.S., thus computati
Page 51 and 52: differentiation of stem cells into
Page 53 and 54: Recommendations: 1) The direct ener
Page 55 and 56: and overwhelms the decision-making
Page 57 and 58: importance of lasers in sustaining
Page 59 and 60: ensure it remains ahead of potentia
Page 61 and 62: launch less-capable satellites rout
Page 63 and 64:
term partnering incentive industry
Page 65 and 66:
shortcomings imposed by the atmosph
Page 67 and 68:
2) Once the Air Force fields SAS, i
Page 69 and 70:
equires maturation of a several tec
Page 71 and 72:
as the DoD Executive Agent for Spac
Page 73 and 74:
provide dynamic and vertically-inte
Page 75 and 76:
Joel “Spicoli” Luker, Major, US
Page 77 and 78:
four areas: biotechnology, nanotech
Page 79 and 80:
weapons for time-sensitive targets.
Page 81 and 82:
increase situational awareness for
Page 83 and 84:
merged RFID, GPS (Global Positionin
Page 85 and 86:
gap and enable ubiquitous, fast-res
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