TABLE OF CONTENTS

When direct energy weapons arrive in numbers on the battlefield, the war planner
will need to know what probability of damage these weapons can attain. Currently, the
Joint Munitions Effectiveness Manual calculates a "single sortie probability of damage"
for conventional blast and fragmentation weapons. Adapting the single sortie probability
of damage formula for lasers, microwave and millimeter wave weapons will allow a
determination of their effectiveness.
Adjusting probability equations for various inputs enables a forecast of the future
capabilities of each weapon. The current trend trajectory is used to establish a baseline
estimate of future probabilities of effect, and the Status of Futures Index (SoFI) method is
used to compare complex entities across multiple dimensions. Finally, disruptive
technologies are analyzed for their effect on the weapons capabilities.
The SoFI for each direct energy weapon indicates a potentially bright future if
managed properly. The current trajectory of lasers makes a Pd/Pe of 1.0 barely possible
at the 30 year mark for a laze time of 0.5 seconds from ranges similar to current blast/frag
weapons. Microwave data is less conclusive. Trend data shows microwave power
increases should place distance ranges at 70km in 30 yrs! But empirical data shows a
reverse trend due to atmospheric ionization shortening the range. The millimeter wave
trend line shows a very steep rise in range, power and dwell time. However, data for the
millimeter wave weapons is less available and has a shorter history. Overall, the SoFI
indications for the current trajectory of direct energy weapons is positive, but does not
indicate a major shift to DE from blast/frag before the year 2035. If direct energy
weapons are to meet their full potential, disruptive new technologies must be found.