proposals – Addendum

DETAILED PROJECT / PROGRAMME DESCRIPTION
GREEN CLIMATE FUND FUNDING PROPOSAL | PAGE 10 OF 101
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Table C.1.2 Deforestation rate in the
Peruvian Amazon, 2009–2011
The project will work in Province of the Datem del Maranon (PDM) in
the Loreto region. The historical deforestation statistics have been
estimated by MINAM and provided to PROFONANPE for this
proposal, as indicated in figure C.1.1 and in map 10.4 in section I.
The data indicate that in this century the average deforestation rate at
provincial level is 2,234 ha/year and the loss of aguajales averages
102 ha/year. The historical loss of aguajales is depicted in figure
C.1.2. The direct causes associated with the historical deforestation
in PDM are the expansion of the agricultural frontier by new settlers
to the province, the exploitation of forests in indigenous lands by
intermediaries and with the consent of some members of the
communities, and the application of traditional practices for collecting
the fruit from palm trees by cutting the trees. Intermediaries have no
incentives to apply sustainable practices because they have no stake
in the land or its long-term productivity.
Another source of deforestation in PDM comes mostly from illegal logging by intermediaries who obtain logging permits
falsely in the name of the indigenous communities. Given the needs of communities and the fact that they are not
creditworthy and lack the technical, legal and financial capability and support to develop and implement forest
management plans, the extraction of timber by outside intermediaries is unsupervised by the authorities. Weakness and
absence of regional and local authorities contribute to this lack of control.
The projection of future deforestation rates is a difficult task that must follow the national guidance of the REDD-plus
process in Peru. Since this guidance is not currently available, the baseline scenario is defined through simple analysis
of the historical data under the most conservative approach. As a reference for the proposed project, the intensification
of short-term deforestation, using the Kernel method, provided in map 10.5. Once the national guidance is available,
the baseline scenario will be adjusted and communicated. For the purpose of this proposal, the following information is
used to define the baseline scenario: three scenarios are estimated from very conservative, conservative and high. The
first scenario takes the average of the last 10 years and assumes that it will be the same during the following 10 years.
The conservative or medium scenario estimates the linear trend depicted by the historical data and projects it to the
2016–2025 period. The high scenario, based on an initial projection provided by MINAM, uses a non-linear approach to
estimate future deforestation. The results are summarized as follows:
Accumulated deforestation in the terra firme forest:
a. Very conservative scenario: 22,340 ha;
b. Medium scenario: 40,780 ha; and
c. High scenario: 67,560 ha.
Figure C.1.1.
Accumulated deforestation in aguajales forest:
a. Very conservative scenario: 1,020 ha;
b. Medium scenario: 1,956 ha; and
c. High scenario: 5,380 ha.
Carbon emissions, based on the selected scenarios and
the data indicated in table C.1.1 (best available scientific
information) yield the following results of the carbon stock
at risk, in Mt C in 10 years: