proposals – Addendum

EXPECTED PERFORMANCE AGAINST INVESTMENT CRITERIA
GREEN CLIMATE FUND FUNDING PROPOSAL | PAGE 44 OF 101
E
E.6.5. Key efficiency and effectiveness indicators
Estimated cost per t CO2 eq, defined as total investment cost/expected lifetime emission reductions
(mitigation only)
(a) Total project financing
(b) Requested GCF amount
(c) Expected emission reductions (10 years)
(d) Estimated cost per t CO2 eq (d = a/c)
(e) Estimated GCF cost per t CO2 eq removed (e = b/c)
USD 9.11 million
USD 6.24 million
2.63 Mt CO2 eq
USD 3.46/t CO2 eq
USD 2.37/t CO2 eq
Estimating avoided deforestation: preliminary analysis
GCF
core
indicators
The project will work in PDM, and the historical deforestation statistics have been estimated by MINAM
and provided to PROFONANPE for this proposal, as indicated in figure C.1.1 and in map 10.4 in section
I. The data indicate that in this century the average deforestation rate at provincial level is 2,234 ha/year
and the loss of aguajales averages 102 ha/year. The historical loss of aguajales is depicted in figure
C.1.2. The direct causes associated with the historical loss of forests in PDM are the expansion of the
agricultural frontier by new settlers to the province, the exploitation of forests in indigenous lands by
intermediaries and with the consent of some members of the communities, and the irrational application
of traditional practices for collecting the fruit from palm trees by cutting the trees. Intermediaries have no
incentives to apply sustainable practices because they have no stake in the land or its long-term
productivity. The projection of future deforestation rates is a difficult task that must follow the national
guidance of the REDD-plus initiative in Peru. Since such guidance is not available at this time, the
baseline scenario is defined through simple analysis of the historical data. The intensification of shortterm
deforestation, using the Kernel method, in provided in map 10.5. Once the national guidance is
available, the baseline scenario will be defined and communicated. For the purpose of this proposal, the
following information is used to define the baseline scenario: three scenarios are estimated, from very
conservative, conservative and high. The first scenario takes the average of the last 10 years and
assumes that it will be the same during the project’s 10-year planning horizon. The conservative or
medium scenario estimates the linear trend depicted by the historical data and projects it to the 2016–
2025 period. The high scenario, based on initial projections provided by MINAM, uses a non-linear
approach to estimate future deforestation. The results are summarized as follows:
Accumulated deforestation in the 2016–2015 period:
• Very conservative scenario: 22,340 ha;
• Medium scenario: 40,780 ha; and
• High scenario: 67,560 ha.
Accumulated loss of aguajales in the 2016–2025 period:
• Very conservative scenario: 1,020 ha;
• Medium scenario: 1,956 ha; and
• High scenario: 5,380 ha.