INTERVIEW| JETNET In 2011 JETNET launched the JETNET iQ business aviation forecast initiative to annually survey 2,000 operators across the globe in demographic proportion to the fl eet. This is done on a rolling basis with 500 operators surveyed each quarter. “We ask very insightful questions about how they see the market, what they see as the challenges and obstacles to growth in the market, what they are thinking about in the way of their next aircraft purchase, and do they anticipate to fl y more or less in the near future,” said Cardarelli. JETNET iQ also has a broader set of questions asking operators what they think of various leading brands for aircraft, engines and avionics. From all this a detailed quarterly report is produced along with a forecast for business aircraft production over the next 10 years. JETNET IQ is produced in association with the aviation consulting fi rm Rolland Vincent and Associates. “Rollie has an extensive background in market strategy, working for a number of the OEMs, and has been closely following the slow recovery that has taken place since the 2008 crash,” Cardarelli notes. Right now, he says, there are clear signs of a recovery in business aviation, albeit not the V-shaped recovery that people had been hoping for. “The pre-owned market continues to be a bit soft in spots, but it has recovered. We’ve seen a slight slowdown in large cabin orders, but there is steady progress being made, even if the good news is all centred on one economy, the US,” The researchers are in regular telephone and email contact with aircraft owners and operators around the globe. Between them they have the full complement of language skills Paul Cardarelli he adds. Rolland Vincent adds that he believes that US corporates are already showing signs of coming back into the market to upgrade their fl eets. Many moderate to heavy corporate users of business jets have not added to or upgraded their fl eet since the crash, and some of their aircraft will already be looking a bit aged, and will be over the psychologically important 10-year line. “Germany, the UK and Mexico are also showing stronger new and pre-owned orders. If you take those three plus the US you are dealing with three quarters of the global fl eet right there,” Vincent adds. Of course, no one expects to see the 1,200 aircraft sales a year that we saw in 2007 returning any time soon. But sales in the high 600s for 2014, and the same kind of levels expected for the full year 2015, are respectable. “If you eliminate 2007 then you have to go back a long time in the records to fi nd 700 aircraft a year being sold,” he says. Cardarelli points out that if you view current sales in dollar terms instead of in numbers of aircraft sold, the fi gures look a great deal better and more impressive. “We are going to see some $21 billion in US dollars in delivery values this year. Plus the average price today per aircraft is around $30 million. Go back 10 to 15 years and a Hawker would have been a mid-market jet at half that value. So we have seen a tremendous upward shift in the average value of aircraft and we expect that to continue,” he concludes. PAUL CARDARELLI, VICE PRESIDENT OF SALES Paul Cardarelli is part of the very foundation that built and supports JETNET. He has been with the company from its inception in 1988 when he began his career there working in the research department. There he gained his knowledge of the business aircraft sales trade and the market in which it occurs. In 1994 he was promoted to Sales Director, and today manages a staff of 13 with responsibility for all JETNET subscription sales worldwide. In 2011 he participated in the launch of the JETNET iQ business aviation forecast service tailored to the strategic planning needs of OEMs and tier I and II suppliers. Cardarelli is JETNET’s delegate to the NBAA Leadership Council, a member of the Business Aviation Subcommittee of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, and a member of the board for the the National Aircraft Resale Association (NARA). He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business Administration with a concentration in Human Resource Management from the State University of New York at Oswego. He earned his private pilot certifi cate in 1981. Cardarelli and his wife Cynthia reside in Ilion, NY, where he is a Unit Commissioner for the Boy Scouts of America and a member of the Ilion Winter Club. They have two children, Danielle and Nicholas. 72 International | Autumn 2015
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