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level out of 134 countries, according to James Parrott of the Fiscal Policy Institute, landing between Chile and Honduras. 71 Even in nouveau hipster and increasingly expensive Brooklyn, nearly a quarter of residents—mainly African-American and Latino—live below the poverty line. The wealthy gentry shop at artisanal cheese shops and frequent trendy restaurants, but one in four Brooklynites receive food stamps. New York has experienced one of the steepest increases in homeless families in the past decade, growing 73 percent since 2002; the number of children Figure 20 Share of Jobs in Personal Care and Food Service Occupations, 2014 Orange County, FL Orleans County, LA Bronx County, NY Kings County, NY Milwwaukee County, WI Bexar County, TX Richmond County, NY San Francisco County, CA Queens County, NY Nation Source: EMSI 2015.2 16.8% 16.6% 16.5% 15% 14.9% 14.8% 14.5% 13.5% 13.4% 12.1% sleeping in shelters rose even as the elite economy “boomed.” 72 Similarly, in the past decade there has been considerable gentrification around Chicago’s lakefront, but Chicago’s middle class has declined precipitously. At the same time, despite all the talk about 'the great inversion' of the poor being replaced by the rich, it turns out that it is mostly the middle and working-classes that have exited the city. Urban analyst Pete Saunders has suggested that Chicago is really now two different cities: a generally prosperous “super-global Chicago” and a “rust belt Chicago,” with lagging education and income levels. “Chicago,” Saunders suggests, “may be better understood in thirds—one-third San Francisco, twothirds Detroit.” 73 This is a common malady in big city America. During the first ten years of the new millennium, the number of neighborhoods with entrenched urban poverty actually grew, increasing from 1100 to 3100, and in population from two to four million. “This growing concentration of poverty,” notes urban researchers Joe Cortright and Dillon Mahmoudi, “is the biggest problem confronting American cities.” 74 The Middle Class Economy Research by the University of Washington’s Richard Morrill shows that suburban areas tend to have “generally less inequality” than the denser cities with activity centralized in the core; for example, in California, Riverside-San Bernardino is far less unequal than Los Angeles, and Sacramento less than San Francisco. 75 Within the 51 metropolitan 24 CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY • CENTER FOR DEMOGRAPHICS AND POLICY
Figure 21 Inequality Levels Across Nation’s Largest Cities (highest) areas with more than 1 million in population, notes demographer Wendell Cox, suburban areas were less unequal (measured by the Gini coefficient) than the core cities in 46 cases. 76 This reflects the fact that most of the middle class economy is found outside the dense, core cities. The monocentric city, where all activity revolves around a vital urban core may represent “… the rhetorical framework for urban policy discussion everywhere” but increasingly does not reflect reality, notes author William Bogart. 78 Today, large suburbs are often the new job centers. 79 Some— Irvine, and Santa Clara, California; Bellevue, outside Seattle; and Irving, a Dallas suburb—have higher job to resident worker ratios than their closest core municipality. 80 This dispersion of work applies even in the oft-cited model for urban density, Portland, Oregon, where all the net new job growth was clustered in the suburbs and exurbs between 2000 and 2013. 81 Nationwide, as the economy has improved, suburban locations—which account for more than 75 percent of all office space— rebounded faster than their more urban counterparts. Between 2012 and 2015, occupied suburban office space rose from 75 percent of the market to 76.7 percent (with the balance located in CBDs). 82 Employment growth continues to be stronger in the newer suburbs and exurban areas than in the urban core. More than 80 percent of employment growth from 2007 to 2013 was in the newer suburbs and exurbs. 83 Perhaps the most critical employment developments are related to technology. Some claim that tech is now becoming an inner city industry, City Population, 2012 Highest Inequality 20th percentile 95th percentile 1 Atlanta, GA 2 San Francisco, CA 3 Miami, FL 4 Boston, MA 5 Washington, DC 6 New York, NY 7 Oakland, CA 8 Chicago, IL 9 Los Angeles, CA 10 Baltimore, MD 443,768 825,863 413,864 637,516 632,323 8,336,697 400,740 2,714,844 3,857,786 621,342 $14,850 $21,313 $10,438 $14,604 $21,782 $17,119 $17,646 $16,078 $17,657 $13,522 Household Income, 2012 Souce: Brooking Institution analysis of 2012 American Community Survey Data Figure 22 Gini Index 0.6 Higher Indicates Less Equal 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Urban Core: CBD Urban Core: Inner Ring Early Suburb Later Suburb bolstered by millennial preferences for Figure 23 inner city living. 84 San Francisco proper has Office seen a Space significant by boom Location in high tech Major business Metropolitan services Areas: in recent 1950–2010 years, yet the majority of the Bay Area’s total Central Business employment remains 10 miles from the Districts city. Neighboring San Mateo (Downtown) County still holds more than five times as 23.3% many jobs in software publishing as San Francisco. 85 Even more, the majority of the Bay Area’s Ratio $279.827 18.8 $353,576 16.6 $164,013 15.7 $223,83 15.3 $290,637 13.3 $226,675 13.2 $223,965 12.7 $201,460 12.5 $217,770 12.3 $164,995 12.2 Income Equality: Major Metropolitan Areas By City Sector: 2011 Exurb Derived from American Community Survey 2009-2013: City Sector Model Overall BEST CITIES FOR PEOPLE 25
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Page 6 and 7: AUTHOR Joel Kotkin is an internatio
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Page 22 and 23: Incidence of Property Crime Core &
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Page 30 and 31: Job Location 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Page 32 and 33: Figure 28 Change: Predominant Commu
Page 34 and 35: Percent Children Under 18 Years Old
Page 36 and 37: Zip Code Analysis Zones) Small Area
Page 38 and 39: Figure 41 Growth in Residents with
Page 40 and 41: Foreign Born Share of of New Househ
Page 42 and 43: Population (Millions) Population (M
Page 44 and 45: Section Four: Creating a New Urban
Page 46 and 47: Institution, a proponent of smart g
Page 48 and 49: Home Ownership UNITED STATES: 2000-
Page 50 and 51: Less Money to Spend One-way bet Med
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Page 54 and 55: MIDDLE CLASS ASPIRATION INDEX: ECON
Page 56 and 57: Miami, Las Vegas, Los Angeles—are
Page 58 and 59: categories: increases in median fam
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Page 62 and 63: IN RANK ORDER Table A.1 MIDDLE CLAS
Page 64 and 65: ETICAL SCORES Table B.1 MIDDLE CLAS
Page 66 and 67: ETICAL RANK Table C.1 MIDDLE CLASS
Page 68 and 69: 1. Fernand Braudel, The Structures
Page 70 and 71: 30. This actually understates the s
Page 72 and 73: 55. Richard Florida, “The Power o
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housing, schools”, SFGATE, Octobe
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142. Elliot Schimel and Jennifer Ma
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167. Paula Span, “New Old Age”,
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197. Martin Dreiling, “New Urbani
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224. Wendell Cox, “84% of 18-to-3
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Design Notes Best Cities for People
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