THE FUTURE OF THE ARMY

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APACHE TRANSFERS AND RELATED ISSUES Potential efficiencies identified in the “Fiscal Challenges” chapter of this report (see page 43), may also free up funding. Added funding is not certain and, even if it eventually occurs, might not materialize for several years. Nevertheless, because the Commission is charged with a long-term look at the future of the Army, it determined that identifying high-priority initiatives is appropriate even though they require substantial funding. The Commission places a high priority on efforts to retain eleven Combat Aviation Brigades in the Regular Army. Considering all types of Army units, the demand for aviation forces is among the highest, and the addition of an eleventh CAB would help meet this strong demand. The eleventh CAB would be used in Korea. Under the current ARI plan, the CAB located in Korea will inactivate in fiscal year 2019, and personnel from stateside CABs would rotate to Korea and operate helicopters already in place in the region. If an eleventh CAB is retained, the CAB in Korea would remain fully manned, and rotational units would not be needed. An eleventh CAB offers important advantages. Peacetime operational tempo for Regular Army Apache units would meet the Army’s BOG-to-dwell goals because the CAB would be permanently stationed in Korea rather than deploying to the region. Most wartime capacity shortfalls, including some early shortfalls identified by TRAC analyses discussed above, would be eliminated. Importantly, the nation would have a stable force of Army aviation in Korea rather than the rotating force planned under the ARI. As noted above, stability would be a major advantage in a region that is volatile and could become involved in combat with little or no notice. Retaining an eleventh Regular Army CAB would, however, add substantially to costs. Compared to those under the Commission’s recommended Apache transfer option, annual operating costs would increase by between about $185 million and $450 million a year. The range depends on whether other force structure changes are made to offset the added personnel required to retain the CAB. Procurement costs would grow by even more. For aircraft other than Apaches, the eleventh CAB would draw from the equipment set already planned for Korea. For Apaches, however, the Commission’s Apache transfer recommendation uses the forty-eight stateside Apaches belonging to units that would rotate to Korea. If an eleventh CAB is added to this plan, and units no longer rotate, then forty-eight additional Apaches would have to be purchased to outfit stateside units. The one-time cost to purchase forty-eight new Apaches—the most expensive Army helicopters with a per-aircraft cost of about $40 million—would total roughly $1.9 billion. A combination of higher defense budgets, efficiencies, and internal Army offsets would be needed to pay this bill. In earlier chapters the Commission offered some alternatives to help offset these added costs. Recommendation 17: The Army should retain eleven Combat Aviation Brigades in the Regular Army. The Commission learned from senior Army leaders that the current level of flying hours for the Regular Army (an average of about eleven hours per pilot per month) permits typical aviation units to maintain platoon- to company-level proficiency, whereas collective proficiency at the battalion level is appropriate and requires an average of about 14.5 hours per pilot per month. Aviation units in the reserve components typically maintain individual- to team-level proficiency using about seven hours per pilot per month for mission aircraft, whereas platoon-level proficiency is appropriate and requires about eight hours per pilot per month. Some of these shortfalls can be offset with Overseas Contingency Operations money, but that type of funding is becoming less available. Without additional flying hours, individual and collective training proficiency will decline, contributing to further declines in readiness and possible increases in accident rates. According to Army data, the rate of serious aviation accidents in fiscal year 2015 stood about 16 percent above the average level in the fiscal years from 2006 to 2010 (these results are based on Army aviation accidents in Classes A, B, and C and so include serious and less serious accidents). Last year aviation units stood down because of concerns stemming from a series of serious accidents. Many factors influence accident rates, such as operational tempo and the introduction of new aircraft models. But the relatively low level of training flight hours could be one cause of the increase in accident rates, a trend that is worrisome to the Commission. The Army should determine the exact level and composition of the increase in flying hours. However, an increase of about two hours per pilot per month in the Regular Army, Army National Guard, and Army Reserve may be appropriate. Such an increase would apply to all types of Army rotary wing aircraft and, compared to the PB16, would add between $250 million and $300 million a year in costs. Recommendation 59: The Army should consider increasing flying hours available for peacetime training. 94 National Commission on the Future of the Army
APACHE TRANSFERS AND RELATED ISSUES Photo by Sgt. 1st Class Sadie Bleistein A CH-47 Chinook door gunner with Task Force Destiny of the 101st Combat Aviation Brigade surveys the ground on a flight from Kandahar Airfield, Afghanistan, to Forward Operating Base Tarin Kowt. The Commission heard from Army aviation officials who believe that modernization is key to maintaining aviation capability, given the reductions in force size. The Army should pursue a robust science and technology effort designed to offset evolving threats and ensure the survivability of helicopters flying in hostile environments (the NCFA Classified Annex contains some additional detail about this important issue). The Army should also consider a program to develop a future armed reconnaissance helicopter. Finally, the Army should continue to place a high priority on development of technologies for future vertical lift. In the nearer term, added modernization funds could be used to offset reductions to the Black Hawk procurement program discussed as part of the Commission’s Apache transfer recommendation, and perhaps even accelerate the Black Hawk modernization. Added modernization funds could also be used to buy more Apache helicopters, thereby avoiding the need to equip Army National Guard battalions with only eighteen aircraft under the Commission’s approach. Recommendation 60: The Army should implement a more aggressive modernization program for its aviation forces. National Commission on the Future of the Army 95
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NATIONAL COMMISSION ON THE FUTURE O
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TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY “Not later than
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Developing One Ar
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WHY THE NATION NEEDS AN ARMY CIVILI
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WHY THE NATION NEEDS AN ARMY Figure
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WHY THE NATION NEEDS AN ARMY “The
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National Commission on the Future o
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THE COMMISSION’S MISSION AND METH
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U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Richard W.
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FUTURE CHALLENGES Figure 7 ARMY IN
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FUTURE CHALLENGES Iran poses a mult
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FUTURE CHALLENGES terrorists or oth
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FUTURE CHALLENGES anti-Americanism,
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FUTURE CHALLENGES to prevent the So
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U.S. Army photo. “The Commission
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FISCAL CHALLENGES Figure 8 BUDGET U
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Page 67 and 68: DEVELOPING ONE ARMY Figure 9 ARMY F
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Page 79 and 80: DEVELOPING ONE ARMY unity of effort
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Page 83 and 84: DEVELOPING ONE ARMY Due to much sho
Page 85 and 86: DEVELOPING ONE ARMY “When you joi
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Page 89 and 90: APACHE TRANSFERS AND RELATED ISSUES
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Page 131 and 132: APPENDIX F: GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS AA
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Page 135 and 136: APPENDIX G: TESTIMONIES AND COMMENT
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APPENDIX G: TESTIMONIES AND COMMENT
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APPENDIX H: COMMISSIONERS AND STAFF
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APPENDIX I: SUBCOMMITTEES OPERATION
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APPENDIX I: SUBCOMMITTEES FORCE GEN
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APPENDIX I: SUBCOMMITTEES DRAFTING
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APPENDIX J: SOURCES CONSULTED Defen
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APPENDIX J: SOURCES CONSULTED U.S.
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APPENDIX J: SOURCES CONSULTED U.S.
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THE FUTURE OF THE ARMY

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