Architectural Record 2015-04

26
ARCHITECTURAL RECORD APRIL 2015
perspective stats
Data from Dodge Data & Analytics
Single-Family Starts by Region
In addition to U.S. total and 2015 forecast figures
NORTHEAST MIDWEST SOUTH WEST TOTAL U.S. FORECAST
THOUSANDS OF UNITS
1800
1500
1200
MARKET FOCUS
SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL
In the aftermath of the housing market bust, single-family
residential construction is making a slow and steady
comeback. However, activity in this sector isn’t likely to
return to pre-recession levels anytime soon.
Top Metro-Area Markets
Ranked by single-family residential
starts for 2014
1 HOUSTON 37,346
2
3
4
5
REGION
Dwelling Units
DALLAS 24,997
ATLANTA 16,292
AUSTIN 12,027
PHOENIX 11,519
900
600
300
Shulman Home and Studio, Los Angeles, Raphael Soriano/Lorcan O’Herlihy Architects, page 112.
0
04
05
06
07
08
The Dodge Index for
Single-Family Residential
Construction 1/2014 – 1/2015
4 1
40
39
38
37
36
35
Dodge Index for Single Family Housing Starts (2005 = 100)
09
34
J F M A M J J A S O N D J
2014 2015
The index is based on seasonally adjusted data for U.S. single-family construction
starts. The average dollar value of projects in 2005 serves as the index baseline.
10
11
12
13
14
15
Quis Quis am, am, rem rem re re nobis nobis dellescid dellescid que que quis quis solor solor re re parit, parit,
Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA)
Fourth Quarter 2014
Homeowner improvements
Four-Quarter Moving Totals
Billions of $
$190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
U.S. COMMERCE DEPARTMENT
LIRA
ACTUAL PROJECTION
8.4% 8.2%
$120.9
4 1
201 1 2012
5.6%
2
2.1%
$120.6 $121.0 $121.9
3
4.2%
$126.0
4
6.6% 7.0% 7.7% 5.6%
4.2%
2.3%
$128.6
1
2013
$129.5
2
$131.3
3
Four-Quarter Moving
Rate of Change
Note: Historical data from the third quarter 2014 onward is based on the LIRA and will remain so until the Census Bureau releases annual
revisions on July 1st. Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University.
$133.1
4
$134.0
1
2014
$132.5
2
5.0%
$137.9
3
7.7%
6.2%
3.3%
$143.4
4
$142.4
1
2015
$137.0
2
1.6%
$140.1
3
20%
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
MOMENTUM INDEX CONTINUES FITFUL CLIMB
After a drop the previous
month, the Dodge Momentum
Index rose 4.3% in February,
to 126.3. Despite some recent
volatility, the index is 17%
higher than it was a year ago.
The Dodge Momentum Index is a leading
indicator of construction spending. The
information is derived from first-issued planning
reports in the Dodge Data & Analytics Reports
database. The data lead the U.S. Commerce
Department’s nonresidential spending by a full
year. In the graph to the right, the index has
been shifted forward 12 months to reflect its
relationship with the Commerce data.
200
150
100
50
0
DODGE MOMENTUM INDEX
U.S. COMMERCE DEPARTMENT
MONTHLY DETAIL
2/2015 – 2/2016
6/ 2015
INDEX (2000 = 100)
0
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 1 1 12 13 14 15 16
400
300
200
100
CoreLogic Measure of
Completed Foreclosures
DECEMBER 2013 46,000
DECEMBER 2014 39,000
% change -15.2%
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price
Index: Single-family
INDEX (JANUARY 2000 = 100)
COMPLETED FORECLOSURES
20-METRO AVERAGE
DECEMBER 2013 165.6
DECEMBER 2014 173.0
% change +4.5%
PHOTOGRAPHY: © IWAN BAAN
Dodge Data & Analytics tracks projects from predesign through construction to capture hard construction costs, square footage, and other key statistical information.