Crop Yield Forecasting

Annex B1.2 - The JRC-MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System
(MCYFS)
In 1992, the JRC developed the MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (MCYFS), a crop yield
forecasting system that provides timely forecasts of crop production – including biofuel
crops – for Europe and other strategic areas (EU Countries, the Maghreb, the European part
of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus) (Figure 1 below). The MCYFS, which the JRC maintains to
this day, monitors crop vegetation growth (for cereals, oil seed crops, protein crops, sugar
beet, potatoes, pastures, and rice), including the short-term effects of meteorological events
on crop production. It also provides seasonal yield forecasts for key European crops (wheat,
maize, etc.).
FIGURE B1.6
Meteorological grid (50 x 50 km) of countries covered by the MCYFS
Source: http://marswiki.jrc.ec.europa.eu/agri4castwiki/index.php/Main_Page
The MCYFS is an integrated analysis tool based on satellite observations of Earth,
meteorological observations, meteorological forecasts, agro-meteorological and biophysical
modelling, and statistical analyses. The MCYFS uses near-real time data, e.g. observed
weather, weather forecasts and remote sensing data. At regular intervals, crop yield
statistics are added. The static input data consists of soil maps, crop parameters and
administrative regions. With these inputs, the data crop conditions can be simulated and
crop-specific end-of-season yield forecasts may be computed. The MCYFS consists of a set
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Crop Yield Forecasting: Methodological and Institutional Aspects