Crop Yield Forecasting

1.3. Release calendars: punctuality and timeliness
The NBS’s crop yield forecasts obtained through the NSRCP are used as internal references
to the crop estimates generated by traditional statistics. The yield forecasts are internally
reported in three reports: a preliminary report, a pre-production report and a final production
report, while the planting area is reported annually (Zhang et al. 2010).
The crop production estimates are released at the press board of the NBS’s website 8 in
mid-July, at the end of August, and in early December for summer grains, early rice and
national grain output respectively. A detailed timeline of NBS’s internal crop estimates (China
2014b) is provided in Table B2.1, Annex B2.1.
As for the MoA’s CHARMS, the change in the crop sown area can be determined one month
before harvest and the crop production can be forecast every month at late growing stages,
with the final estimation being delivered by May, September and early October for winter
wheat, maize and cotton respectively (Yang 2007).
Each province regularly reports the crop estimates based on the traditional method (a
complete reporting system supplemented by sampling surveys) to the MoA (see Table B2.2,
Annex B2.1; China 2013), and the CHARMS crop forecasts are disseminated internally. Both
sources are reported to the State Council and are used internally for policymaking purposes
and to supplement the NBS’s official agricultural statistics.
The CMA’s agricultural forecasts are released through multiple channels. Internally, two
national consulting conferences are hosted by the CMA every year (mid-May and late
August) to assess the national yield of summer crops and autumn crops. Representatives
are invited from all provincial meteorological bureaus and other official department and
institutions, including the MoA, the NBS, the State Administration of Grain (SAG), the
Ministry of Civil Affairs (MCA) and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Externally, the
critical agrometeorological updates are directly reported to the State Council, the Rural Work
Leading Group of the Communist Party of China’s (CPC) Central Committee, the National
Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the Ministry of Finance (MoF), the MoA
and other relevant government departments; the crop forecasts may be updated in the
periodical Agro-Meteorological Bulletins with ten-day, monthly, seasonal or annual time
periods. Besides, during important growing periods for specific crops, special topic reports
are issued to enable the dynamic monitoring of crop conditions and yield prospects. In
addition, Agro-Meteorological Disasters Reports are released when disasters occur (Wang
and He 2009). Currently, the CMA is capable of obtaining the variation of average, yield and
production (increase or decrease) of domestic crops two months before the harvest, and
the quantitative estimation of yield and production one month before harvest. For foreign
countries such as United States, India and Brazil the yield predictions are available one month
before harvest.
8
NBS press board: http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
Crop Yield Forecasting: Methodological and Institutional Aspects 57