Crop Yield Forecasting

Table 3.1 compares crop yield forecasts at national level for the main crops, as released by
the two different systems.
TABLE 3.1
Crop yield forecasts (t/ha) at national level for the 2012-2013 cropping season, as
released by the CGMS-MAROC and the EU-CGMS, on the basis of their respective
methodologies
Yield (t/ha)
System Soft wheat Durum wheat Barley
CGMS_MAROC 1.93 1.92 1.40
EU-CGMS 1.89 1.85 1.26
Dates of release:
CGMS-MAROC: 17 April 2013
EU-CGMS: 21 May 2013
The CGMS-MAROC releases provisional forecasts each year during the month of April, and
constantly revises them as the season progresses.
Tables 3.2 and 3.3 below provide examples of this revision process, illustrating how the
provisional forecasts released on 10 April 2012 (Table 3.2) have been corrected in the final
forecasts for the 2012-2013 season (Table 3.3).
TABLE 3.2
Provisional forecasts as at 10 April 2012
Average yield
(t/ha)
Area
(million ha)
Production
(million tons)
Soft wheat 1.15 2.18 2.51
Durum wheat 1.03 0.96 1.00
Barley 0.64 1.89 1.22
Total 5.13 4.73
Official production was then estimated at 5.07 million tons.
TABLE 3.3
Cereals forecasts for the 2012-2013 season in Morocco
Average yield
(t/ha)
Area
(million ha)
Production
(million tonnes)
Soft wheat 1.93 2.17 4.18
Durum wheat 1.92 0.97 1.87
Barley 1.40 1.98 2.78
Total 5.12 8.83
Crop Yield Forecasting: Methodological and Institutional Aspects 87