Crop Yield Forecasting

estimate is computed by interviewing a sample of 1,500 farms. This farm cover represents
approximately 5 to 10 percent of total crop acreage and approximately 2.5 percent of the
total number of farms. The combination of the two surveys provides a preliminary estimate
of crop production by 1 October of the current year, and a final estimate by 1 October of the
following year (De Baets, 1996).
2.2. Description of the non-official yield forecasting methodology
2.2.1. The B-CGMS’ overall methodology
An unofficial source of crop yield forecasts is the B-CGMS. The project proposed a comparative
analysis of Belgium and China’s Heilongjiang province to compare the Chinese and Belgian
CGMSs. In particular, the project sought to introduce the remote sensing approach into the
Chinese system and to improve the remote sensing interface of the Belgian system; an
additional goal was to adapt and improve both systems. The B-CGMS is an independent
implementation of the European Crop Yield Forecasting System (MCYFS) implemented by
the MARS Unit of the Joint Research Center (JRC-MARS 24 ). A brief description of the MCYFS
is given in Annex B1.2. below.
The B-CGMS is independent of the European MCYFS model, and is adjusted to Belgium’s
local conditions. This adjustment required the original MCYFS to be modified, to take into
account i.e. pedo-climatological databases, the crop parameters and the working scale (Table
1.2). Indeed, as more detailed information became available at Belgian level (e.g. weather
stations network, soil map), the basic grid size (of 50 x 50 km in the CGMS) was modified as
described in Section 1.1 above.
Table 1.2 highlights the main differences between the original European model and the
B-CGMS.
24
JRC-MARS: http://mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/mars/About-us/The-MARS-Unit.
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Crop Yield Forecasting: Methodological and Institutional Aspects