G7_JAPAN

Strengthening G7 summitry
IN CONVERSATION
Progress will
be difficult
or impossible
without China
The efforts of G7 members to reduce tensions in parts of
East Asia can only go so far without cooperation from Beijing
Beijing is not quite psychologically or
materially ready to put the economic
headlock on Pyongyang, but if Kim Jong-un
does not begin to whistle at least a
somewhat different tune, expect China to
come closer and closer onside with G7
members – provided that they (and South
Korea) can assuage its very visceral fear of a
North Korean collapse that results in a united
Korea with American troops on the Yalu River.
With respect to other regional security
challenges, China shows little sign of
coming in from the cold. The East China
Sea, at least, has settled into a modus
vivendi, albeit one with distressingly
frequent encounters between Chinese and
Japanese vessels and distressingly frequent
Japanese fighter scrambles from Okinawa.
Since the election of Tsai Ing-wen as
President of Taiwan, Beijing has gone quiet
on cross-Strait relations, indicating that
some re-evaluation of Beijing’s strategy
is under way. Given that engagement has
clearly failed to woo Taiwan back, I fear
the next strategy will involve fewer carrots
and more sticks.
In the South China Sea, matters appear
to be coming to a head. Beijing’s refusal to
clarify its precise claims, its breakneck land
reclamation programme, its militarisation
of artificial islands, its refusal to move
forward on a code of conduct, its insistence
on bilateral solutions and its hysterical
reaction to the Philippines arbitration case
have triggered balancing behaviour by
others and have weakened China’s hand
rather than strengthened it. Here, Chinese
behaviour is not driven by assertiveness,
aggressiveness or confidence, but by fear:
it is caught between domestic expectations
of inflexibility and a deteriorating security
environment at a time when the regime
is becoming increasingly aware of its shaky
legitimacy. It is hard to imagine how we
get from here to a happy ending.
Q What role has the G7 played in the
past in managing these challenges?
A Not much, frankly. Others have taken
the lead on major security issues to this
point. The defunct Six-Party Talks took
the point position on North Korean nuclear
weapons; the United States and Japan,
through their bilateral security treaty, have
taken the lead on the East China Sea; the
United States has unilaterally taken the
lead on backstopping Taiwan against
China (largely informally, but nevertheless
very seriously); and the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations has tried – but
failed miserably – to take the lead on the
South China Sea.
The G7 has never been in a position
to assert leadership on these issues
because only two members (Japan and
the United States) are major stakeholders,
and they are on the same side of every
issue. But the G7 may begin to speak in
a louder voice, as it did recently in the
foreign ministers’ Hiroshima Statement
on Maritime Security.
Q Will any of these issues
escalate into military conflict?
A There is always that potential. The
good news is that nobody wants a shooting
war. The bad news is that sometimes you
get a shooting war when absolutely no
one wants one. The chief danger of
military conflict on the Korean Peninsula
lies either in a desperate gamble by
Kim Jong-un to stave off collapse, or in a
new American administration that runs
out of patience with diplomatic tools
and reaches for the military hammer
before North Korea masters ballistic
missile technology.
In the East China Sea, the problem is
an inadvertent clash – which, with luck,
everyone will seek to contain as quickly
as possible. With Taiwan we probably
have some time, but since Taiwan will
never willingly return to the fold, the
big question is whether China will lose
patience before it loses interest.
In the South China Sea, inadvertent
conflict is always a danger, but if the
Philippines arbitration case goes in
Manila’s favour we may see more assertive
military action in defence of claims.
Q Which issues are most likely to
become acute in the coming months?
A Keep an eye on both North Korea
and the South China Sea. G7
g7g20.com May 2016 • G7 Japan: The Ise-Shima Summit 119