Global Automotive Executive Survey 2017
global-automotive-executive-survey-2017
global-automotive-executive-survey-2017
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Geopolitical turmoil & regional shift 47<br />
Taking the temperature on production in Western Europe<br />
Shifting production volumes to growth markets is another serious<br />
threat to Western Europe.<br />
65 % of executives believe that by 2030 less than<br />
5% of global car production will originate from<br />
Western Europe.<br />
Not only macroeconomic risks and geopolitical turmoil will<br />
have a significant impact on the automotive sector in Western<br />
Europe. <strong>Global</strong>ization and the emergence of China as<br />
the most important automotive sales market has led to<br />
dramatic dependencies for some auto manufacturers in<br />
Western Europe.<br />
Taking the temperature on whether less than 5% of the<br />
global car production will originate from Western Europe by<br />
2030, nearly two out of three executives absolutely or partly<br />
agree. In numbers that would mean that car production<br />
would drop from 13.1 million today to only 5.4 million in 2030.<br />
This would have severe consequences for manufacturers<br />
themselves and the whole labor market in Western Europe.<br />
However, current forecasts still show that the volume will at<br />
least not be lower than today, although global share will drop<br />
only slightly to 13%. Past experience suggests that the reality<br />
will be in between these two extremes.<br />
<strong>Executive</strong> opinion<br />
42%<br />
Partly agree<br />
23%<br />
22%<br />
Partly disagree<br />
Absolutely agree<br />
Neutral<br />
10%<br />
Absolutely disagree<br />
2%<br />
NextGen Analytics: <strong>Automotive</strong> light vehicle production volume (< 6t) for Western Europe 2013–2030<br />
forecast<br />
15 m<br />
12 m<br />
9 m<br />
6 m<br />
13.1 m production volume<br />
16% of global production<br />
“Market forecasts predict a global market<br />
share of 13% for Western Europe by 2030<br />
with an absolute growth of 0.6 m units.“<br />
“<strong>Executive</strong>s think that production<br />
in Western Europe will dramatically<br />
decline to less than 5% by 2030.“<br />
Market forecast<br />
for 2030<br />
13.7 m production<br />
volume<br />
13% of global<br />
production<br />
<strong>Executive</strong> opinion<br />
for 2030<br />
5.4 m production<br />
volume<br />
5% of global<br />
production<br />
Market forecast<br />
<strong>Executive</strong> opinion<br />
2013<br />
2014<br />
2015<br />
2016<br />
<strong>2017</strong><br />
2018<br />
2019<br />
2020<br />
2021<br />
2022<br />
2023<br />
2024<br />
2025<br />
2026<br />
2027<br />
2028<br />
2029<br />
2030<br />
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100 % due to rounding | Source: KPMG’s <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Automotive</strong> <strong>Executive</strong> <strong>Survey</strong> <strong>2017</strong><br />
Source NextGen Analytics Graphic: LMC <strong>Automotive</strong>, KPMG <strong>Automotive</strong> Institute <strong>2017</strong><br />
kpmg.com/GAES<strong>2017</strong><br />
© <strong>2017</strong> KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
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