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Exhibit 8-8 Federal-Aid Highway Capital Investment Scenarios for 2013 Through 2032: Projected Impacts on Selected Highway Performance Measures ....................................................................................... 8-12 Exhibit 8-9 Improve Conditions and Performance Scenario for Federal-Aid Highways: Distribution of Average Annual Investment for 2013 Through 2032 Compared with Actual 2012 Spending by Functional Class and Improvement Type........................................................................................................... 8-14 Exhibit 8-10 National Highway System Capital Investment Scenarios for 2013 Through 2032: Distribution by Capital Improvement Type and Projected Impacts on Selected Highway Performance Measures ........................................................................................................................................................ 8-16 Exhibit 8-11 Interstate System Capital Investment Scenarios for 2013 Through 2032: Distribution by Capital Improvement Type and Projected Impacts on Selected Highway Performance Measures ........................ 8-17 Exhibit 8-12 Capital Investment Scenarios for Transit ....................................................................................... 8-18 Exhibit 8-13 Annual Average Cost by Investment Scenario, 2013 through 2032 ................................................. 8-20 Exhibit 8-14 Annual Transit Capital Expenditures, 2004–2012 ........................................................................... 8-22 Exhibit 8-15 Sustain 2012 Spending Scenario: Average Annual Investment by Asset Type, 2013 through 2032 ................................................................................................................................................... 8-22 Exhibit 8-16 Sustain 2012 Spending Scenario: Over-Age Forecast by Asset Category, 2012–2032 ........................ 8-23 Exhibit 8-17 Investment Backlog: Sustain 2012 Spending ($10 Billion Annually) ................................................. 8-24 Exhibit 8-18 Sustain 2012 Spending Scenario: Capacity Utilization by Mode Forecast, 2012–2032 ...................... 8-25 Exhibit 8-19 Projected vs. Currently Supported Ridership Growth ..................................................................... 8-26 Exhibit 8-20 SGR Benchmark: Average Annual Investment by Asset Type, 2013 through 2032 ........................... 8-27 Exhibit 8-21 Investment Backlog: State of Good Repair Benchmark ($16.6 Billion Annually) .............................. 8-28 Exhibit 8-22 Proportion of Transit Assets Not in State of Good Repair (Excluding Tunnel Structures) .................. 8-29 Exhibit 8-23 Low-Growth and High-Growth Scenarios: Average Annual Investment by Asset Type, 2013 through 2032 .......................................................................................................................................... 8-30 Exhibit 8-24 Scenario Investment Benefits Scorecard ....................................................................................... 8-33 Exhibit 9-1 Selected Highway Investment Scenario Projections Compared with Comparable Data from the 2013 C&P Report ......................................................................................................................................... 9-3 Exhibit 9-2 Comparison of Average Annual Highway and Bridge Investment Scenario Estimates with Base-Year Spending, 1997 to 2015 C&P Reports .................................................................................................. 9-4 Exhibit 9-3 Annual Projected Highway VMT Based on HPMS-Derived Forecasts or FHWA VMT Forecast Model ............................................................................................................................................................... 9-8 Exhibit 9-4 State-Provided Long-Term VMT Forecasts Compared with Actual VMT, 1965–2032 .......................... 9-10 Exhibit 9-5 Impact of Investment Timing on HERS Results Reflected in the Improve Conditions and Performance Scenario—Effects on Pavement Roughness and Delay per VMT .................................................... 9-12 Exhibit 9-6 Impact of Investment Timing on NBIAS Results Reflected in the Improve Conditions and Performance Scenario—Effects on Structurally Deficient Bridges and Economic Bridge Investment Backlog ........................................................................................................................................................... 9-15 Exhibit 9-7 Illustration of Potential Impact of Alternative Inflation Rates on Selected Systemwide Investment Scenarios....................................................................................................................................... 9-17 Exhibit 9-8 Asset Condition Forecast for All Existing and Expansion Transit Assets ............................................. 9-20 xxii List of Exhibits
Exhibit 9-9 Sustain 2012 Spending Scenario: Asset Percent of Useful Life Consumed .......................................... 9-20 Exhibit 9-10 SGR Benchmark: Asset Percent of Useful Life Consumed ................................................................ 9-21 Exhibit 9-11 Low-Growth Scenario: Asset Percent of Useful Life Consumed ....................................................... 9-22 Exhibit 9-12 High-Growth Scenario: Asset Percent of Useful Life Consumed ....................................................... 9-22 Exhibit 9-13 Asset Condition Forecast for All Existing and Expansion Transit Assets ........................................... 9-23 Exhibit 9-14 Prior and Revised Passenger Miles Traveled (PMT) Projection Methodology ................................... 9-24 Exhibit 9-15 Passenger Miles Traveled: 15-Year Compound Annual Growth Rate by Mode, 1997-2012 ............... 9-25 Exhibit 9-16 Hybrid and Alternative Fuel Vehicles: Share of Total Bus Fleet, 2000–2030 ..................................... 9-26 Exhibit 9-17 Impact of Shift to Vehicles Using Hybrid and Alternative Fuels on Investment Needs: Low- Growth Scenario .............................................................................................................................................. 9-27 Exhibit 9-18 Impact of Shift from Diesel to Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles on Average Annual Investment Needs ($B) ..................................................................................................................................... 9-28 Exhibit 9-19 Impact of Shift to Vehicles Using Hybrid and Alternative Fuels on Backlog Estimate: Sustain 2012 Spending Scenario ........................................................................................................................ 9-28 Exhibit 9-20 Projection of Fleet Size by Scenario ............................................................................................... 9-29 Exhibit 9-21 Projection of Guideway Route Miles by Scenario ........................................................................... 9-30 Exhibit 9-22 Projection of Stations by Scenario ................................................................................................. 9-30 Exhibit 9-23 Stock of Fixed Guideway Miles by Year Under Low-Growth Scenario, 2012–2032............................ 9-31 Exhibit 10-1 Impact of Alternative Value of Time Assumptions on Highway Investment Scenario Average Annual Investment Levels ................................................................................................................... 10-4 Exhibit 10-2 Impact of Alternative Assumptions About Growth in the Real Value of Time on Highway Investment Scenario Average Annual Investment Levels ................................................................................... 10-6 Exhibit 10-3 Impact of Alternative Value of Life Assumptions on Highway Investment Scenario Average Annual Investment Levels ................................................................................................................... 10-7 Exhibit 10-4 Impact of Alternative Discount Rate Assumption on Highway Investment Scenario Average Annual Investment Levels ................................................................................................................... 10-9 Exhibit 10-5 Impact of an Increase in Capital Costs on Highway Investment Scenario Average Annual Investment Levels .......................................................................................................................................... 10-10 Exhibit 10-6 Impact of Alternative Future Fuel Price Assumption on Highway Investment Scenario Average Annual Investment Levels ................................................................................................................. 10-12 Exhibit 10-7 Projected Average Percent Growth per Year in Vehicle Miles Traveled by Vehicle Class, 2013–2032 ..................................................................................................................................................... 10-13 Exhibit 10-8 Impact of Alternative Travel Growth Forecasts on Highway Investment Scenario Average Annual Investment Levels ............................................................................................................................... 10-14 Exhibit 10-9 Impact of Alternative Operations Strategies Deployment Rate Assumptions on Selected Performance Indicators and Highway Investment Scenarios ............................................................................ 10-15 Exhibit 10-10 Impact of Alternative Replacement Condition Thresholds on Transit Preservation Investment Needs by Scenario (Excludes Expansion Impacts) .......................................................................... 10-18 Exhibit 10-11 Impact of Increase in Capital Costs on Transit Investment Estimates by Scenario ........................ 10-19 List of Exhibits xxiii
Page 5 and 6: Table of Contents List of Exhibits
Page 7 and 8: Roads and Bridges by Purpose ......
Page 9 and 10: Ridership .........................
Page 11 and 12: Urbanized Areas Over 1 Million in P
Page 13 and 14: Moving Forward ....................
Page 15 and 16: List of Exhibits Highlights 2012 Ex
Page 17 and 18: Exhibit 1-9 Labor Force Participati
Page 19 and 20: Exhibit 3-18 Functionally Obsolete
Page 21 and 22: Exhibit 5-32 Transit Urban Passenge
Page 23: Exhibit 7-14 Projected 2032 Pavemen
Page 27 and 28: Exhibit C-1 Definitions of Transit
Page 29 and 30: FLTP Federal Lands Transportation P
Page 31 and 32: STRIDE Southeastern Transportation
Page 33 and 34: Report Organization This report beg
Page 35 and 36: metropolitan planning organizations
Page 37 and 38: to replace and rehabilitate existin
Page 39 and 40: investments in specific locations.
Page 41 and 42: ■ In nominal dollar terms, highwa
Page 43 and 44: Highway Safety Improved Overall, bu
Page 45 and 46: ■ The combined cost of wasted tim
Page 47 and 48: Highlights: Transit Extent of the S
Page 49 and 50: which came from passenger fares. Th
Page 51 and 52: Unlinked Passenger Trips, Passenger
Page 53 and 54: Executive Summary PART I Descriptio
Page 55 and 56: Executive Summary CHAPTER 1 Freight
Page 57 and 58: Executive Summary CHAPTER 2 System
Page 61 and 62: Executive Summary CHAPTER 4 Safety:
Page 65 and 66: Executive Summary CHAPTER 6 Finance
Page 67 and 68: activity when travelers use transit
Page 69 and 70: Executive Summary CHAPTER 7 Potenti
Page 71 and 72: Executive Summary CHAPTER 8 Selecte
Page 73 and 74: Executive Summary CHAPTER 9 Supplem
Page 75 and 76:
Executive Summary CHAPTER 10 Sensit
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Executive Summary CHAPTER 12 Transp
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Introduction In 2014, the U.S. Depa
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■ Safety - To achieve a significa
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■ An NPRM for an Asset Management
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Personal Travel The movement of peo
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in nonvehicle travel. Nonvehicle mi
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Exhibit 1-6 Average Annual Person M
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As the U.S. population ages, the pe
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On average, U.S. citizens spend 20
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Exhibit 1-10 Regional Migration and
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Growth in Megaregions Between 2000
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Integrating GPS and smartphone tech
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These households learn to adapt to
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Transportation Demand Management (T
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Freight Movement The economy of the
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Exhibit 1-17 Tonnage on Highways, R
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Exhibit 1-20 Weight of Shipments by
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Exhibit 1-23 presents a map identif
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Exhibit 1-27 Total U.S.-Mexico Trad
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Challenges for Freight Transportati
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Freight challenges are not new. The
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Highway and Bridge System Character
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Percentage of Total Highway Miles P
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stabilized, Americans are beginning
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In view of the importance of the NH
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The National Network has remained g
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next to office buildings or suburba
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How are collectors defined? Collect
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In addition to the construction of
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in urban areas; single-unit truck t
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The NHS encompasses all of the Inte
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with Disabilities Act of 1990 (ADA)
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UZA Rank Urbanized Areas (UZA) with
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In addition to fixed-route bus syst
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Exhibit 2-21 Transit Rail Mileage a
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FTA for Transportation for Persons
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chapter 3 System Conditions Highway
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Condition data for all bridges on t
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In 2012, approximately 66.6 percent
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has been the share of VMT on paveme
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low amounts of traffic, typically a
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Bridge deficiencies by ownership ar
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Among the individual functional cla
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Roadway Alignment The term “roadw
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shoulder width designed in the 1930
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How do total bridge deficiencies di
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Bridge replacement projects create
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Transit System Conditions Ideally,
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The Replacement Value of U.S. Trans
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Exhibit 3-25 Age Distribution of Fi
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Exhibit 3-28 Urban Transit Rail Fle
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Other Rail Assets Assets associated
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vans, minivans, autos, and cutaways
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chapter 4 Safety Highway Safety ...
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Overall Fatalities and Injuries Sta
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The fatality rate per population wa
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Exhibit 4-5 Fatalities by Functiona
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To help accomplish this goal, FHWA
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serious injuries and fatalities on
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Roadway Departure Focus States and
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Exhibit 4-9 Pedestrian and Other No
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total property damage exceeding $7,
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Transportation’s (DOT) Status of
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ecause of a commuter rail collision
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Exhibit 4-19 Commuter Rail Injuries
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Highway System Performance Transpor
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“Nonrecurring” congestion is ca
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States. Similar to results for the
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Exhibit 5-5 Planning Time Index for
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congestion has risen almost 5 perce
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travel times for intermodal locatio
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Exhibit 5-12 Average Truck Speeds o
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Exhibit 5-14 Top 25 Intercity Truck
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Exhibit 5-16 Average Travel Speeds
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sense of place; economic competitiv
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the success of plans and projects i
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change and extreme weather events i
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discusses techniques for integratin
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Gulf Coast Study The groundbreaking
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■ bus rapid transit - previously
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and (2) sharp drops in loads beyond
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service that are both reasonably fr
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light-rail and vanpool miles growin
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an increase in capacity-equivalent
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(up 20 percent per year), can be pa
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Exhibit 5-34 Transit Ridership vs.
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Highway Finance This chapter presen
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As shown in Exhibit 6-1, all levels
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Exhibit 6-4 Government Revenue Sour
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Highway Expenditures Highway expend
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dollar terms, while capital outlay
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for example, in the period between
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Highway Capital Outlay States provi
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ehabilitation and 25.3 percent to e
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Capital Outlays on the National Hig
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the private partner’s investment
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Transit Finance Transit funding com
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Federal Funding Federal funding for
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Exhibit 6-23 Urban Funding for Tran
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locomotives, and service vehicles)
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Fluctuations in the levels of capit
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Exhibit 6-29 Urban Sources of Funds
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Exhibit 6-32 2012 Urban Rail Operat
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Based on operating costs alone, hea
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Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21) a
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Introduction To support the develop
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costs because of difficulties in va
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transit investment scenarios, which
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The models used in this report—HE
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are taken from the 2013 update to t
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chapter 7 Potential Capital Investm
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Nonmodeled spending also includes t
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match. To match the national-level
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other pollutants. (The model uses e
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Impacts of Federal-Aid Highway Inve
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How large is the investment backlog
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Impact of Future Investment on High
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feeds the Maintain Conditions and P
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emains at the base-year level (aver
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Impact on Vehicle Operating Costs E
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travel that would occur if user cos
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Exhibit 7-9 HERS Investment Levels
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Impact of Future Investment on NHS
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Impact of Future Investment on Inte
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Exhibit 7-13 Projected Changes in 2
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2012 (95.2 percent) at the highest
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The Percent Structurally Deficient
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Exhibit 7-15 also indicates that th
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Exhibit 7-17 Projected Impact of Al
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Potential Transit Capital Investmen
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aim of improving current service pe
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Transit Backlog The 2010 Conditions
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Exhibit 7-21 Impact of Preservation
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level of expansion investment requi
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Expansion Investments Although urba
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Page 355:
Exhibit 7-28 presents estimates of
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Selected Highway Capital Investment
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How do the definitions of the selec
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when the scenario relates to mainta
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The NBIAS-derived component represe
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improvement type. Of importance to
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Exhibit 8-7 Federal-Aid Highway Cap
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Exhibit 8-9 Improve Conditions and
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Exhibit 8-10 National Highway Syste
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Selected Transit Capital Investment
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■ Low and High-Growth Scenarios:
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Exhibit 8-14 Annual Transit Capital
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ages and types and records generate
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equired to support continued riders
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Exhibit 8-21 Investment Backlog: St
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Within this new framework, the Low-
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much of this comparison is based on
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Expansion Impacts Although continue
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Highway Supplemental Scenario Analy
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The average annual investment level
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The sensitivity analysis was conduc
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substituting these State-supplied f
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derived from the 2012 HPMS data bee
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Alternative Timing of Investment in
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The bottom panel of Exhibit 9-5 ill
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investment timing. High bridge inve
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Why are the investment analyses pre
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Exhibit 9-8 Asset Condition Forecas
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Exhibit 9-11 Low-Growth Scenario: A
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Prior Methodology: Prior to this re
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fuel efficiency, but this possible
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increase in investment needs. To pr
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Exhibit 9-21 Projection of Guideway
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chapter 10 Sensitivity Analysis Hig
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Alternative Economic Analysis Assum
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the binding constraint in this scen
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(https://www.transportation.gov/off
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to exhaust all opportunities for im
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ase-year capital improvement costs
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motor fuel prices reduce the cost a
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pavement rehabilitation and capacit
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Transit Sensitivity Analysis This s
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Exhibit 10-11 Impact of Increase in
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part III Special Topics Introductio
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chapter 11 Pedestrian and Bicycle T
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■ ■ ■ ■ ■ development pro
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Exhibit 11-3 Bicycle and Pedestrian
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pedestrian walkways. Pedestrian and
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“The DOT policy is to incorporate
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A newly formed Pedestrian and Bicyc
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practices and principles published
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chapter 12 Transportation Serving F
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miles are traveled annually on the
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urban areas, access to educational
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oads are paved, and the rest are gr
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those assets. In addition to this b
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adjacent to refuge access points. A
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Reclamation owns approximately 2,01
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DOD contributes to the highway trus
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for FY 2013 and FY 2014 (see Exhibi
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the complex relationship among thes
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part IV Recommendations for HPMS Ch
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investment requirements. The system
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part V Appendices Introduction ....
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appendix A Highway Investment Analy
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costs resulting from a highway impr
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conventional widening is infeasible
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■ For Portland cement concrete su
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■ emergency service providers (su
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A-3 indicate that bus drivers’ tr
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Distribution of Vehicle Use by Purp
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Exhibit A-5 Shares of Business and
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employees’ eligibility to use com
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Report, three- and four-axle trucks
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HERS uses these estimates of CO2 em
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■ Arterial Management Adaptive T
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Exhibit A-9 Impacts of Operations S
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study and are not considered adequa
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9 http://www.apta.com/resources/sta
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Bridge Investment Analysis Methodol
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e identified if a user-specified re
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estimated backlog of bridge needs,
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appendix C Transit Investment Analy
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The asset inventory data are derive
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Note that this feature is not used
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TERM’s estimates for capital expa
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Exhibit C-5 Assets in Marginal or P
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The specific calculations used by t
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Investment Benefits TERM’s B/C mo
Page 538 and 539:
Reimagining the C&P Report Over the
Page 540 and 541:
Other methodologies that could be s
Page 542:
of expression to guide users to con
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