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terms over 20 years. Because the base year for the current report is 2012, the scenarios have been renamed Sustain 2012 Spending. The Maintain Conditions and Performance scenario for highways and bridges presented in the 2013 C&P Report used average pavement roughness, average delay per VMT, and the average bridge sufficiency rating as primary indicators. This edition substitutes the percentage of deck area on bridges classified as deficient for the average bridge sufficiency rating in defining this scenario and applies the pavement roughness and delay indicators in a somewhat different manner. Cautionary Notes on Using This Report To interpret the analyses presented in this report correctly, understanding the framework in which they were developed and recognizing their limitations are critical. This document is not a statement of Administration policy, and the future investment scenarios presented are illustrative. The report does not endorse any particular level of future highway, bridge, or transit investment. It neither addresses how future Federal programs for surface transportation should look, nor identifies the level of future funding for surface transportation that could or should be provided by the Federal, State, or local governments; the private sector; or system users. Making recommendations on such policy issues is beyond the legislative mandate for this report and furthermore would violate its objectivity. Analysts outside FHWA can and do use the statistics presented in the C&P report to draw their own conclusions, but any analysis attempting to use the information presented in this report to determine a target Federal program size would require a series of additional policy and technical assumptions that are well beyond what is reflected here. The investment scenario results presented in this report are estimates of the performance that could be achieved with a given level of funding, not necessarily what would be achieved. The analytical tools used in developing these estimates combine engineering and economic procedures that determine deficiencies based on engineering standards while applying benefit-cost analysis procedures to identify potential capital improvements to address deficiencies that might have positive net benefits. The models generally assume that projects are prioritized based on their benefit-cost ratios, but that assumption deviates somewhat from actual patterns of project selection and funding distribution that occur in the real world. Consequently, the level of investment identified as the amount required for achieving a certain performance level should be viewed as illustrative only—not as a projection or prediction of an actual condition and performance outcome likely to result from a given level of national spending. As in any modeling process, simplifying assumptions have been made to make analysis practical and to report within the limitations of available data. Because operators at the State and local levels primarily make the ultimate decisions concerning highways, bridges, and transit systems, they have a much stronger business case for collecting and retaining detailed data on individual system components. The Federal government collects selected data from States and transit operators to support this report and several other Federal activities, but these data are not sufficiently robust to make definitive recommendations concerning specific transportation xxxvi Introduction
investments in specific locations. Improvements are evaluated based on benefit-cost analysis, but not all external costs (such as noise pollution or construction-related loss of wildlife habitat) or external benefits (such as productivity gains that might result from transportation improvements that open markets to competition) are fully considered. Across a broad program of investment projects, such external effects might cancel each other; but, to the extent that they do not, the true “needs” could be either higher or lower than the models predict. Introduction xxxvii
Page 5 and 6: Table of Contents List of Exhibits
Page 7 and 8: Roads and Bridges by Purpose ......
Page 9 and 10: Ridership .........................
Page 11 and 12: Urbanized Areas Over 1 Million in P
Page 13 and 14: Moving Forward ....................
Page 15 and 16: List of Exhibits Highlights 2012 Ex
Page 17 and 18: Exhibit 1-9 Labor Force Participati
Page 19 and 20: Exhibit 3-18 Functionally Obsolete
Page 21 and 22: Exhibit 5-32 Transit Urban Passenge
Page 23 and 24: Exhibit 7-14 Projected 2032 Pavemen
Page 25 and 26: Exhibit 9-9 Sustain 2012 Spending S
Page 27 and 28: Exhibit C-1 Definitions of Transit
Page 29 and 30: FLTP Federal Lands Transportation P
Page 31 and 32: STRIDE Southeastern Transportation
Page 33 and 34: Report Organization This report beg
Page 35 and 36: metropolitan planning organizations
Page 37: to replace and rehabilitate existin
Page 41 and 42: ■ In nominal dollar terms, highwa
Page 43 and 44: Highway Safety Improved Overall, bu
Page 45 and 46: ■ The combined cost of wasted tim
Page 47 and 48: Highlights: Transit Extent of the S
Page 49 and 50: which came from passenger fares. Th
Page 51 and 52: Unlinked Passenger Trips, Passenger
Page 53 and 54: Executive Summary PART I Descriptio
Page 55 and 56: Executive Summary CHAPTER 1 Freight
Page 57 and 58: Executive Summary CHAPTER 2 System
Page 61 and 62: Executive Summary CHAPTER 4 Safety:
Page 65 and 66: Executive Summary CHAPTER 6 Finance
Page 67 and 68: activity when travelers use transit
Page 69 and 70: Executive Summary CHAPTER 7 Potenti
Page 71 and 72: Executive Summary CHAPTER 8 Selecte
Page 73 and 74: Executive Summary CHAPTER 9 Supplem
Page 75 and 76: Executive Summary CHAPTER 10 Sensit
Page 77: Executive Summary CHAPTER 12 Transp
Page 80 and 81: Introduction In 2014, the U.S. Depa
Page 82 and 83: ■ Safety - To achieve a significa
Page 84 and 85: ■ An NPRM for an Asset Management
Page 86 and 87: Personal Travel The movement of peo
Page 88 and 89:
in nonvehicle travel. Nonvehicle mi
Page 90 and 91:
Exhibit 1-6 Average Annual Person M
Page 92 and 93:
As the U.S. population ages, the pe
Page 94 and 95:
On average, U.S. citizens spend 20
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Exhibit 1-10 Regional Migration and
Page 98 and 99:
Growth in Megaregions Between 2000
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Integrating GPS and smartphone tech
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These households learn to adapt to
Page 104 and 105:
Transportation Demand Management (T
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Freight Movement The economy of the
Page 108 and 109:
Exhibit 1-17 Tonnage on Highways, R
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Exhibit 1-20 Weight of Shipments by
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Exhibit 1-23 presents a map identif
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Exhibit 1-27 Total U.S.-Mexico Trad
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Challenges for Freight Transportati
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Freight challenges are not new. The
Page 120 and 121:
Highway and Bridge System Character
Page 122 and 123:
Percentage of Total Highway Miles P
Page 124 and 125:
stabilized, Americans are beginning
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In view of the importance of the NH
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The National Network has remained g
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next to office buildings or suburba
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How are collectors defined? Collect
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In addition to the construction of
Page 136 and 137:
in urban areas; single-unit truck t
Page 138 and 139:
The NHS encompasses all of the Inte
Page 140 and 141:
with Disabilities Act of 1990 (ADA)
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UZA Rank Urbanized Areas (UZA) with
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In addition to fixed-route bus syst
Page 146 and 147:
Exhibit 2-21 Transit Rail Mileage a
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FTA for Transportation for Persons
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chapter 3 System Conditions Highway
Page 153 and 154:
Condition data for all bridges on t
Page 155 and 156:
In 2012, approximately 66.6 percent
Page 157 and 158:
has been the share of VMT on paveme
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low amounts of traffic, typically a
Page 161 and 162:
Bridge deficiencies by ownership ar
Page 163 and 164:
Among the individual functional cla
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Roadway Alignment The term “roadw
Page 167 and 168:
shoulder width designed in the 1930
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How do total bridge deficiencies di
Page 171 and 172:
Bridge replacement projects create
Page 173 and 174:
Transit System Conditions Ideally,
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The Replacement Value of U.S. Trans
Page 177 and 178:
Exhibit 3-25 Age Distribution of Fi
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Exhibit 3-28 Urban Transit Rail Fle
Page 181 and 182:
Other Rail Assets Assets associated
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vans, minivans, autos, and cutaways
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chapter 4 Safety Highway Safety ...
Page 187 and 188:
Overall Fatalities and Injuries Sta
Page 189 and 190:
The fatality rate per population wa
Page 191 and 192:
Exhibit 4-5 Fatalities by Functiona
Page 193 and 194:
To help accomplish this goal, FHWA
Page 195 and 196:
serious injuries and fatalities on
Page 197 and 198:
Roadway Departure Focus States and
Page 199 and 200:
Exhibit 4-9 Pedestrian and Other No
Page 201 and 202:
total property damage exceeding $7,
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Transportation’s (DOT) Status of
Page 205 and 206:
ecause of a commuter rail collision
Page 207:
Exhibit 4-19 Commuter Rail Injuries
Page 210 and 211:
Highway System Performance Transpor
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“Nonrecurring” congestion is ca
Page 214 and 215:
States. Similar to results for the
Page 216 and 217:
Exhibit 5-5 Planning Time Index for
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congestion has risen almost 5 perce
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travel times for intermodal locatio
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Exhibit 5-12 Average Truck Speeds o
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Exhibit 5-14 Top 25 Intercity Truck
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Exhibit 5-16 Average Travel Speeds
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sense of place; economic competitiv
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the success of plans and projects i
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change and extreme weather events i
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discusses techniques for integratin
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Gulf Coast Study The groundbreaking
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■ bus rapid transit - previously
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and (2) sharp drops in loads beyond
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service that are both reasonably fr
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light-rail and vanpool miles growin
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an increase in capacity-equivalent
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(up 20 percent per year), can be pa
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Exhibit 5-34 Transit Ridership vs.
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Highway Finance This chapter presen
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As shown in Exhibit 6-1, all levels
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Exhibit 6-4 Government Revenue Sour
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Highway Expenditures Highway expend
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dollar terms, while capital outlay
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for example, in the period between
Page 264 and 265:
Highway Capital Outlay States provi
Page 266 and 267:
ehabilitation and 25.3 percent to e
Page 268 and 269:
Capital Outlays on the National Hig
Page 270 and 271:
the private partner’s investment
Page 272 and 273:
Transit Finance Transit funding com
Page 274 and 275:
Federal Funding Federal funding for
Page 276 and 277:
Exhibit 6-23 Urban Funding for Tran
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locomotives, and service vehicles)
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Fluctuations in the levels of capit
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Exhibit 6-29 Urban Sources of Funds
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Exhibit 6-32 2012 Urban Rail Operat
Page 286 and 287:
Based on operating costs alone, hea
Page 288 and 289:
Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21) a
Page 290 and 291:
Introduction To support the develop
Page 292 and 293:
costs because of difficulties in va
Page 294 and 295:
transit investment scenarios, which
Page 296 and 297:
The models used in this report—HE
Page 298 and 299:
are taken from the 2013 update to t
Page 301 and 302:
chapter 7 Potential Capital Investm
Page 303 and 304:
Nonmodeled spending also includes t
Page 305 and 306:
match. To match the national-level
Page 307 and 308:
other pollutants. (The model uses e
Page 309 and 310:
Impacts of Federal-Aid Highway Inve
Page 311 and 312:
How large is the investment backlog
Page 313 and 314:
Impact of Future Investment on High
Page 315 and 316:
feeds the Maintain Conditions and P
Page 317 and 318:
emains at the base-year level (aver
Page 319 and 320:
Impact on Vehicle Operating Costs E
Page 321 and 322:
travel that would occur if user cos
Page 323 and 324:
Exhibit 7-9 HERS Investment Levels
Page 325 and 326:
Impact of Future Investment on NHS
Page 327 and 328:
Impact of Future Investment on Inte
Page 329 and 330:
Exhibit 7-13 Projected Changes in 2
Page 331 and 332:
2012 (95.2 percent) at the highest
Page 333 and 334:
The Percent Structurally Deficient
Page 335 and 336:
Exhibit 7-15 also indicates that th
Page 337 and 338:
Exhibit 7-17 Projected Impact of Al
Page 339 and 340:
Potential Transit Capital Investmen
Page 341 and 342:
aim of improving current service pe
Page 343 and 344:
Transit Backlog The 2010 Conditions
Page 345 and 346:
Exhibit 7-21 Impact of Preservation
Page 347 and 348:
level of expansion investment requi
Page 349 and 350:
Page 351 and 352:
Expansion Investments Although urba
Page 353 and 354:
Page 355:
Exhibit 7-28 presents estimates of
Page 358 and 359:
Selected Highway Capital Investment
Page 360 and 361:
How do the definitions of the selec
Page 362 and 363:
when the scenario relates to mainta
Page 364 and 365:
The NBIAS-derived component represe
Page 366 and 367:
improvement type. Of importance to
Page 368 and 369:
Exhibit 8-7 Federal-Aid Highway Cap
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Exhibit 8-9 Improve Conditions and
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Exhibit 8-10 National Highway Syste
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Selected Transit Capital Investment
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■ Low and High-Growth Scenarios:
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Exhibit 8-14 Annual Transit Capital
Page 380 and 381:
ages and types and records generate
Page 382 and 383:
equired to support continued riders
Page 384 and 385:
Exhibit 8-21 Investment Backlog: St
Page 386 and 387:
Within this new framework, the Low-
Page 388 and 389:
much of this comparison is based on
Page 390 and 391:
Expansion Impacts Although continue
Page 392 and 393:
Highway Supplemental Scenario Analy
Page 394 and 395:
The average annual investment level
Page 396 and 397:
The sensitivity analysis was conduc
Page 398 and 399:
substituting these State-supplied f
Page 400 and 401:
derived from the 2012 HPMS data bee
Page 402 and 403:
Alternative Timing of Investment in
Page 404 and 405:
The bottom panel of Exhibit 9-5 ill
Page 406 and 407:
investment timing. High bridge inve
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Why are the investment analyses pre
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Exhibit 9-8 Asset Condition Forecas
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Exhibit 9-11 Low-Growth Scenario: A
Page 414 and 415:
Prior Methodology: Prior to this re
Page 416 and 417:
fuel efficiency, but this possible
Page 418 and 419:
increase in investment needs. To pr
Page 420 and 421:
Exhibit 9-21 Projection of Guideway
Page 423 and 424:
chapter 10 Sensitivity Analysis Hig
Page 425 and 426:
Alternative Economic Analysis Assum
Page 427 and 428:
the binding constraint in this scen
Page 429 and 430:
(https://www.transportation.gov/off
Page 431 and 432:
to exhaust all opportunities for im
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ase-year capital improvement costs
Page 435 and 436:
motor fuel prices reduce the cost a
Page 437 and 438:
pavement rehabilitation and capacit
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Transit Sensitivity Analysis This s
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Exhibit 10-11 Impact of Increase in
Page 443 and 444:
part III Special Topics Introductio
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chapter 11 Pedestrian and Bicycle T
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■ ■ ■ ■ ■ development pro
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Exhibit 11-3 Bicycle and Pedestrian
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pedestrian walkways. Pedestrian and
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“The DOT policy is to incorporate
Page 455 and 456:
A newly formed Pedestrian and Bicyc
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practices and principles published
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chapter 12 Transportation Serving F
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miles are traveled annually on the
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urban areas, access to educational
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oads are paved, and the rest are gr
Page 467 and 468:
those assets. In addition to this b
Page 469 and 470:
adjacent to refuge access points. A
Page 471 and 472:
Reclamation owns approximately 2,01
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DOD contributes to the highway trus
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for FY 2013 and FY 2014 (see Exhibi
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the complex relationship among thes
Page 479 and 480:
part IV Recommendations for HPMS Ch
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investment requirements. The system
Page 483 and 484:
part V Appendices Introduction ....
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appendix A Highway Investment Analy
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costs resulting from a highway impr
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conventional widening is infeasible
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■ For Portland cement concrete su
Page 493 and 494:
■ emergency service providers (su
Page 495 and 496:
A-3 indicate that bus drivers’ tr
Page 497 and 498:
Distribution of Vehicle Use by Purp
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Exhibit A-5 Shares of Business and
Page 501 and 502:
employees’ eligibility to use com
Page 503 and 504:
Report, three- and four-axle trucks
Page 505 and 506:
HERS uses these estimates of CO2 em
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■ Arterial Management Adaptive T
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Exhibit A-9 Impacts of Operations S
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study and are not considered adequa
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9 http://www.apta.com/resources/sta
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Bridge Investment Analysis Methodol
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e identified if a user-specified re
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estimated backlog of bridge needs,
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appendix C Transit Investment Analy
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The asset inventory data are derive
Page 527 and 528:
Note that this feature is not used
Page 529 and 530:
TERM’s estimates for capital expa
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Exhibit C-5 Assets in Marginal or P
Page 533 and 534:
The specific calculations used by t
Page 535:
Investment Benefits TERM’s B/C mo
Page 538 and 539:
Reimagining the C&P Report Over the
Page 540 and 541:
Other methodologies that could be s
Page 542:
of expression to guide users to con
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