e_Paper, Friday, August 18, 2017

As the sea levels rise
Preparing for rising sea levels and the end of self-sufficiency in food
Opinion 13
DT
FRIDAY, AUGUST 18, 2017
Fossil fuels are the culprits
• Zahin Hasan
The Earth is getting
warmer; the Antarctic ice
is melting.
Scientists expect that
by the end of this century, many
low-lying districts of Bangladesh
will be permanently inundated;
the agricultural lands in these
districts will be lost. In “The
Unfolding Tragedy of Climate
Change in Bangladesh” (published
on the Scientific American
website) Robert Glennon writes:
“A three-foot rise in sea level
would submerge almost 20% of
the entire country and displace
more than 30 million people.
Some scientists project a five-tosix
foot rise by 2100, which would
displace perhaps 50 million people
… Already, the intruding sea has
contaminated groundwater, which
supplies drinking water for coastal
regions, and degraded farmland,
rendering it less fertile and
eventually barren.”
When millions of people lose
their homes and their farms,
they will move to cities in
search of work. As cities expand
to accommodate millions of
migrants, they will swallow up
even more agricultural land.
At some point, Bangladesh will
become permanently dependent
on imported food; self-sufficiency
We need to create at least 20 industrial cities which will eventually house
and employ a total population of 50 million
in rice production is no longer a
realistic long-term goal. A more
realistic long-term goal would be
to create enough industrial jobs to
ensure that the poor are employed,
and can afford to buy imported
rice. This is possible, but will
require careful planning.
The crux of the problem is
that Dhaka and Chittagong,
the traditional destinations for
migrants from the countryside,
cannot accommodate millions of
more migrants. The slums which
house the working class in Dhaka
are unliveable; many of them
occupy low-lying areas of the cities
which periodically flood with
rainwater and raw sewage.
Chittagong has already
expanded to risky hillsides, whose
residents live with the danger of
fatal landslides. We simply cannot
allow the unplanned growth of
these two cities to continue.
SEZs show the way
Fortunately, the government has
already taken the first step, which
will create alternative destinations
for migrants: Several Special
Economic Zones (SEZs) have been
created in different districts. As
factories and mills are set up
in these SEZs, they will tend to
grow into industrial cities; the
government should encourage this
growth by investing in the towns
and villages near each SEZ.
The employees of each SEZ will
need government schools, universities,
hospitals, magistrate courts,
and of course infrastructure like
roads, sewage, railways, and power
distribution.
If the government makes all
these investments, a well-planned
industrial city can grow around
each SEZ.
As climate change and
population growth will probably
create 50 million migrants, we
need to create at least 20 industrial
cities which will eventually house
and employ a total population
of 50 million people. The
infrastructure required for 20
industrial towns will probably
require the government to invest
about $20 billion.
Fortunately, the government
can finance this by taxing fossil
fuels (oil, gas, and coal). Burning
fossil fuels is what caused the
crisis of rising sea levels, so it
makes sense that fossil fuels
should be taxed to raise money for
adaptation to rising sea levels.
Creating industrial cities is
not just a matter of building
infrastructure; private capital will
be required to set up factories in
the new cities.
The private sector will probably
require about $20bn to set up
10,000 factories (at an average
investment of $2m per factory).
Let the taka float
The best way to ensure that these
investments are made is to allow
private banks in Bangladesh to
borrow money from abroad (where
interest rates are very low), so they
can lend to industrial companies
at low interest rates.
In the past, the private sector
in Bangladesh has been forced
to borrow money at high interest
rates; other countries which have
convertible, floating currencies are
easily able to attract large amounts
of capital from abroad.
BIGSTOCK
It is time to make the taka a
freely floating currency, and to
make it convertible for capital
account transactions (transfers
of assets). Foreign financial
institutions will then have the
confidence to lend large amounts
of money to Bangladeshi banks.
Only private banks should be
allowed to borrow money from
abroad; massive fraud and loan
default have illustrated that the
state-owned banks are thoroughly
corrupt, and should not be allowed
to expand their lending business.
State-owned banks should only be
allowed to lend their deposits to
private banks.
Once industrial cities have
been created, and foreign capital
has been attracted to Bangladesh
to finance new factories,
Bangladeshis who lose their land
to rising sea levels will naturally
move to the new industrial cities
to find employment.
Bangladesh will have
successfully transformed into an
industrial economy; preventing
hunger will then be a simple
matter of adjusting the minimum
wage to ensure that the average
working family can afford
imported rice. •
Zahin Hasan is a businessman, and a
member of the board of directors of the
Dhaka Tribune.