THE HOSPITALITY MARKET REPORT FAST CASUAL According to Jourden, while fast-casual has been a foodservice trendsetter, this year and into next will likely see a bit of a slowdown in growth, due primarily to the increased number of players in the segment. Competitive pressures from newcomers expanding into Canada — such as the popular Americanbased chain The Cheesecake Factory, which is set to open in Toronto this fall — means existing brands need to up their game. “As this market gets more saturated, operators will need to start thinking about how they’re going to better differentiate themselves,” he says. “Traditionally, what we have seen in the fast-casual sector is a lot of the bakery-cafés and Freshii-type models. Now the question is ‘what else can fast-casual bring to the table?’” The Restaurants Canada report places consumer spending in restaurants this year at four per cent of household spending, down from 5.3 per cent in 2016, due to a retrenchment in consumer’s disposable income growth and increasing consumer debt. To remain competitive, fast casual is going to have to change. While demand will moderate in Ontario and B.C., Alberta and Saskatchewan will see a slight increase following two years of declines, the report says. After adjusting for menu inflation, real sales will grow at about the same pace as population Commerical Foodservice Sales Forecast [year-over-year change] 4.8% 0.8% 3.5% 3.2% 5.1% 4.4% growth — meaning in order to grow sales, fast-casual operators will need to steal traffic by focusing on food quality, value, convenience and innovative menu offerings. Innovation is certainly something Neil Creighton, director of Food and Beverage at Toronto-based Aroma Espresso Bar, says will continue to be important for companies like his to be successful. He says Aroma’s strategy of bringing the best of quick-service and fastcasual traits together has helped the company 5.1% 5.2% 6.2% 4.9% 4.3% 3.7% 3.6% 3.2% 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16-P 17-F 18-F 19-F 20-F 21-F SOURCE: CONFERENCE BOARD OF CANADA, STATISTICS CANADA AND RESTAURANTS CANADA. NOTE: Growth rates include inflation. P= PRELIMINARY F= FORECAST More global fare will be making appearances on Canadian menus in 2018, according to studies Restaurants Canada Sales Forecast Canada 2015 Final (in millions) % Change ‘15/’14 2016 Forecast Quick-service restaurants $26,870.3 6.7% $28,903.9 7.6% $30,153.2 4.3% Full-service restaurants $26,626.0 4.5% $28,225.1 6.0% $29,777.5 4.1% Caterers $5,312.9 4.6% $5,375.3 1.2% $5,488.2 4.2% Drinking places $2,289.3 -2.1% $2,405.1 5.1% $2,383.5 1.5% TOTAL COMMERCIAL $61,098.5 5.2% $64,909.4 6.2% $68,085.0 4.9% Accommodation foodservice $6,230.0 5.4% $6,392.0 2.6% $6,678.0 4.5% Institutional foodservice $4,487.0 2.6% $4,618.0 2.9% $4,761.0 3.1% Retail Foodservice $1,811.5 10.7% $2,014.4 11.2% $2,137.3 6.1% Other foodservice $2,558.5 3.0% $2,640.4 3.2% $2,738.0 3.7% TOTAL NON-COMMERCIAL $15,087.0 4.7% $15,664.8 3.8% $16,314.3 4.1% TOTAL FOODSERVICE $76,185.5 5.1% $80.574.2 5.8% $84,399.2 4.7% Menu Inflation 2.8% 2.6% 2.3% REAL GROWTH 2.3% 3.2% 2.4% SOURCE: RESTAURANTS CANADA, STATISTICS CANADA, fsSTRATEGY INC. AND CBRE HOTELS % Change ‘16/’15 2017 Forecast % Change ‘17/’16 grow to 40 locations, with four more to be added by the end of 2017. When it comes to sitting down for a coffee, Creighton says consumers are looking for something more. “One of the things that has set us apart and allows us to be successful is the commitment we made to making our locations both stylish and comfortable,” he says. “Where many others in our space have the food served in takeout packaging, at Aroma, when you sit down with our food, it is served on china and you get a proper cup for your coffee or espresso.” FULL SERVICE The full-service segment — from premiumcasual to fine dining — continues to struggle. Carter says the segment has been facing increased challenges since 2008, when the iSTOCK.COM/ARTRAN [PANCIT NOODLES] 30 FOODSERVICE AND HOSPITALITY NOVEMBER 2017 FOODSERVICEANDHOSPITALITY.COM
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