2017 4th Quarter International Trade Council Global Business Confidence Survey

Recommendations

Info

GLOBAL BUSINESS CONFIDENCE REPORT 4 th Qtr. 2017 Comparison of respondents answers for previous and coming 12 months Expansion PREVIOUS 12 MONTHS No Change Recession Unsure Expansion COMING 12 MONTHS No Change Recession Unsure Australia 20% 39.26% 37.04% 3.70% 20.70% 65.10% 5.10% 8.80% Canada 29.01% 32.72% 30.25% 8.02% 32.70% 49.30% 7.40% 10.40% China 55.56% 22.22% 11.11% 11.11% 55.50% 44.40% 0% 0% Czech Republic 37.50% 29.17% 25% 8.33% 45.80% 29.10% 8.30% 16.60% India 47.06% 16.18% 33.82% 2.94% 48.50% 32.30% 16.10% 2.90% Jordan 13.43% 35.82% 46.27% 4.48% 16.40% 31.30% 31.30% 20.90% Malaysia 21.21% 36.36% 36.36% 6.06% 18.10% 54.50% 15.10% 12.10% Nepal 60.53% 21.05% 10.53% 7.89% 52.60% 23.60% 0% 23.60% Pakistan 68.18% 22.73% 6.82% 2.27% 56.80% 18.10% 11.30% 13.60% Poland 27.27% 27.27% 45.45% 0% 54.50% 27.20% 0% 18.10% Romania 17.39% 23.91% 54.35% 4.35% 26% 26% 43.40% 4.30% Singapore 42.86% 14.29% 42.86% 0% 23.80% 42.80% 23.80% 9.50% UAE 31.82% 18.18% 45.45% 4.55% 22.70% 31.80% 22.70% 22.70% United Kingdom 26.24% 34.75% 36.17% 2.84% 23.50% 51% 18.40% 7% United States 49.93% 27.82% 17.28% 4.98% 50.60% 31.10% 7.90% 10.20% Percentage Change Between Previous 12 Months and Coming 12 Months Expansion No Change Recession Australia 3.50% 65.82% -86.23% Canada 12.72% 50.67% -75.54% China -0.11% 99.82% -100% Czech Republic 22.13% -0.24% -66.80% India 3.06% 99.63% -52.40% Jordan 22.11% -12.62% -32.35% Malaysia -14.66% 49.89% -58.47% Nepal -13.10% 12.11% -100% Pakistan -16.69% -20.37% 65.69% Poland 99.85% -0.26% -100% Romania 49.51% 8.74% -20.15% Singapore -44.47% 199.51% -44.47% UAE -28.66% 74.92% -50.06% United Kingdom -10.44% 46.76% -49.13% United States 1.34% 11.79% -54.28% Respondents in many countries reported a cooling-off of local economic growth, particularly in Singapore (44.47% change), the United Arab Emirates (28.66% change), Pakistan (16.69% change), Malaysia (14.66% change), Nepal (13.10% change) and the United Kingdom (10.44% change). Results from Pakistan show a 65.69% increased chance of recession in the coming 12 months versus the bulk of respondents showing a decreased chance of a recession – heading either towards stability (Australia, China, India, Malaysia, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom & the United States) or economic growth (Canada, Czech Republic, Jordan, Poland & Romania). Despite a large percentage of respondents from Jordan, Romania, Singapore and the United Arab Emirates reporting a chance of recession, these figures are generally pierced as positive compared to the previous 12 months. While many respondents still expect local economic growth, overall figures trend towards a general cooling of the global economy. International Trade Council www.tradecouncil.org Page 28
GLOBAL BUSINESS CONFIDENCE REPORT 4 th Qtr. 2017 Confidence in Local Economy for Coming 12 Months Confidence in Local Economy for Next 12 Months Economic expansion 40.26% A flat economy 37.83% A recession 11.31% Unsure 10.60% In simple terms, economic expansion means an increase in real GDP (otherwise known as Gross Domestic Product). GDP is the total value of everything produced by all the people and companies in the country. An increase in real GDP means there is an increase in the value of national output / national expenditure. A decrease in GDP means there is a decrease in the value of national output / national expenditure – i.e. if you earn more than you spend you are able to save money, if you spend more than you earn, you will get in debt. The Importance of Forecasting Economic Growth Economic forecasts are, by their very nature, complex and while data may appear to be convoluted and ambiguous, it is important to attempt to understand the basics of the local economy, particularly as fluctuations can affect certain industries in various ways. A country which experiences economic growth (an increase in GDP) is likely to be less prone to inflation, have a reasonably constant output of goods and services, have higher levels of investment, increase the profitability of firms - leading to increased research and development and greater innovations, higher levels of employment, higher average incomes and lower government borrowing. A decrease in GDP for a country may result in greater external borrowing. If GDP continues to decrease then it may result in an economic, banking or currency crisis. Citizens in the affected country are then likely to experience direct impact due to the imbalance of exchange rates (local currency devaluation), unemployment and a decrease in state services and benefits. In a flat economy, companies generally will be less likely to make new investments or hire more employees. Impediments to a sound economy might include high taxes, high regulatory compliance costs, high energy costs, transportation inefficiencies, lack of affordable housing and a negative business climate. 40.26% of all respondents were confident about coming economic growth. International Trade Council www.tradecouncil.org Page 29
Page 1 and 2: GLOBAL BUSINESS CONFIDENCE REPORT 4
Page 27: GLOBAL BUSINESS CONFIDENCE REPORT 4
Page 79 and 80:
GLOBAL BUSINESS CONFIDENCE REPORT 4
Page 81 and 82:
Page 83 and 84:
Page 85 and 86:
Page 87 and 88:
Page 89 and 90:
Page 91 and 92:
Page 93 and 94:
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
Page 105 and 106:
Page 107 and 108:
Page 109 and 110:
Page 111 and 112:
Page 113 and 114:
Page 115 and 116:
Page 117 and 118:
Page 119 and 120:
Page 121 and 122:
Page 123 and 124:
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
Appendix GLOBAL BUSINESS CONFIDENCE
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144:
Page 145 and 146:
Page 147 and 148:
Page 149 and 150:
Page 151 and 152:
Page 153 and 154:
Page 155 and 156:
Page 157 and 158:
Page 159 and 160:
Page 161 and 162:
Page 163 and 164:
Page 165 and 166:
Page 167 and 168:
Page 169 and 170:
Page 171 and 172:
Page 173 and 174:
Page 175 and 176:
Page 177 and 178:
Page 179 and 180:
Page 181 and 182:
Page 183 and 184:
Page 185 and 186:
Page 187 and 188:
Page 189 and 190:
Page 191 and 192:
Page 193 and 194:
Page 195 and 196:
Page 197 and 198:
Page 199 and 200:
Page 201 and 202:
Page 203 and 204:
Page 205 and 206:
Page 207 and 208:
Page 209 and 210:
Page 211 and 212:
Page 213 and 214:
Page 215 and 216:
Page 217 and 218:
Page 219:
show all

2017 4th Quarter International Trade Council Global Business Confidence Survey

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?