HT0918
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growth is expected to moderate at two<br />
per cent, which will cause occupancy<br />
to decline to 74 per cent. Similarly,<br />
ADR is expected to contract by two<br />
per cent, finishing at $168. Overall,<br />
RevPAR growth is expected to<br />
contract by three per cent in 2018.<br />
OTTAWA<br />
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018<br />
ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL CBRE(F)<br />
Occupancy 70% 72% 73% 75% 74%<br />
ADR $143 $151 $156 $171 $168<br />
RevPAR $100 $109 $114 $128 $124<br />
MONTREAL<br />
Montreal saw unprecedented GDP<br />
growth of 3.7 per cent in 2017. With<br />
the celebrations around Montreal’s<br />
375th and Canada’s 150th anniversary,<br />
overnight travel to Montreal<br />
was up more than five per cent. As a<br />
result, the Montreal market was able<br />
to achieve 75-per-cent occupancy city<br />
wide for the first time, while at the<br />
same time seeing ADR growth of 7.5<br />
per cent.<br />
Montreal’s economy is expected to<br />
expand by a moderate 2.2 per cent in<br />
2018 and travel growth will be in line<br />
with historic growth rates of about two<br />
per cent.<br />
From a hotel-industry perspective,<br />
the suburban markets have<br />
shown strong occupancy and ADR<br />
growth over the first half of 2018. The<br />
downtown market, however, has struggled,<br />
with demand down year-to-date<br />
by more than three per cent and yearend<br />
occupancy projected to be down<br />
by four points, relative to 2017. This<br />
may not be surprising, coming of the<br />
peaks of Montreal’s 375th and Canada’s<br />
150th anniversary in 2017, along with<br />
the full-year operation of the Fairmont<br />
Queen Elizabeth, which re-opened in<br />
mid-2017. Overall, Montreal is expected<br />
to finish 2018 down three points in<br />
occupancy at 72 per cent.<br />
MONTREAL<br />
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018<br />
ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL CBRE(F)<br />
Occupancy 69% 71% 73% 75% 72%<br />
ADR $146 $154 $163 $175 $180<br />
RevPAR $101 $109 $118 $131 $130<br />
QUEBEC CITY<br />
After sluggish GDP growth in 2015<br />
and 2016, growth in 2017 and 2018 is<br />
expected to be 2.3 per cent per annum.<br />
The stronger GDP is expected as a<br />
result of stronger growth in employment,<br />
high-tech services output and<br />
continued growth in manufacturing<br />
and construction. Slowing retail sales<br />
are expected to mitigate some of the<br />
growth, but the outlook is positive<br />
— particularly in light of the fact the<br />
province has balanced its books.<br />
In 2017, Quebec City’s overnight<br />
visitation was forecast to grow by<br />
3.9 per cent to 5.6 million visits as a<br />
result of both the Montreal 375th and<br />
Canada 150th celebrations. In particular,<br />
overseas visits were forecast to grow<br />
by 10.9 per cent. In 2018, overnightvisitation<br />
growth is expected to be<br />
positive, although more in line with<br />
historic levels at 2.2 per cent.<br />
In 2017, Quebec City saw demand<br />
increase by four per cent against supply<br />
growth of 1.5 per cent, which pushed<br />
occupancy up to 68 per cent — a level<br />
not seen since 2000. Although demand<br />
was strong, ADR growth was not as<br />
robust, increasing only 2.7 per cent<br />
and pushing ADR to $168. As a result,<br />
RevPAR in the market increased by<br />
more than five per cent to $114 in 2017<br />
With supply expected to grow by<br />
0.5 per cent in 2018, and demand<br />
growth of one per cent, occupancy is<br />
expected to remain steady at 68 per<br />
cent. In June 2018, the G7 Summit was<br />
held in Charlevoix and the Quebec<br />
City market saw significant increases<br />
in both occupancy and ADR at that<br />
time. As a result, ADR is projected<br />
to be $175 in 2018 — up four per cent<br />
over 2017. This will help drive RevPAR<br />
growth of five per cent, to $119.<br />
QUEBEC CITY<br />
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018<br />
ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL CBRE(F)<br />
Occupancy 63% 63% 66% 68% 68%<br />
ADR $151 $158 $164 $168 $175<br />
RevPAR $95 $100 $109 $114 $119<br />
ISTOCK.COM/MIRCEAX<br />
HALIFAX/DARTMOUTH<br />
After a GDP increase of less<br />
than one per cent in 2017, Halifax/<br />
Dartmouth is expected to see growth<br />
of 1.9 per cent in 2018. Construction<br />
and manufacturing will be the growth<br />
leaders in this market, with continued<br />
benefits from ship-building activity.<br />
Overnight visitation saw strong<br />
increases in 2017, at a growth rate<br />
of more than three per cent. Travel<br />
growth will be more moderate in 2018,<br />
in line with historic growth rates of<br />
about two per cent.<br />
In 2017, the market experienced a<br />
contraction in supply of about four per<br />
cent. This, combined with demand<br />
growth of about one per cent, drove<br />
hoteliermagazine.com<br />
SEPTEMBER 2018 HOTELIER 37
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