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VBJ February 19

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<strong>February</strong> 20<strong>19</strong><br />

Cloudy and Blurry, or the New Normal?<br />

REAL ESTATE<br />

by by<br />

Gene Steve Wunderlich Fillingim<br />

As most of you know from my<br />

recent articles, 2018 was not a great<br />

year but far from a bad one. We’ve<br />

been in a low interest rate/low inventory<br />

situation for so long we’ve forgotten<br />

what a ‘normal’ market used to<br />

be. For example, we’ve conveniently<br />

forgotten when we were comfortable<br />

with 6% - 7% mortgage interest rates.<br />

Rates have been artificially depressed<br />

into the 3% range for so long that<br />

today’s rates of 4.25% are causing<br />

alarm. They shouldn’t. And next year<br />

they’ll likely rise into the 5% - 5.5%<br />

range, and that won’t be the end of<br />

the world either. However, it does<br />

make it more difficult for first-time<br />

buyers to enter the market given the<br />

lack of affordable workforce housing.<br />

Lack of supply is the problem, not<br />

interest rates.<br />

Similarly, we’ve forgotten that a<br />

‘normal’ inventory of homes for sale<br />

is a 6 -7 month supply. Over the past<br />

decade we’ve had local inventories<br />

as low as 3 weeks and only recently<br />

increased to 3 months. And for some<br />

THE VALLEY BUSINESS JOURNAL<br />

www.TheValleyBusinessJournal.com<br />

reason people are freaking out about it.<br />

They shouldn’t. Increased supply is the<br />

solution, not the problem.<br />

Properties are staying on the market<br />

longer – as long as 40 days in December.<br />

For agents accustomed to the more recent<br />

market, the fact that they’re not getting<br />

multiple offers at higher than asking<br />

price within hours of listing a home is<br />

evidence that the market is collapsing.<br />

It’s not. Competitively priced properties<br />

are still selling briskly but nearly 30%<br />

of properties in the mls are now selling<br />

after a price reduction. Adjust your expectations<br />

in line with reality instead of<br />

fantasy and you won’t be disappointed.<br />

Fewer properties sold across our<br />

region in 2018 than 2017 – about 12%<br />

fewer (11,685 / 10,479). That’s actually<br />

479 homes more than my mid-year forecast<br />

called for, so I look at that as a win!<br />

But it’s also the fact that we’re coming<br />

off our best sales year in a decade in<br />

2017 that makes this year look worse<br />

than it actually is. After four consecutive<br />

years of increasing sales volume, a<br />

step back looks scary until you realize<br />

a correction is not a bad thing. As long<br />

as it remains just a correction. By the<br />

way, condo sales were off 15% (680<br />

/ 581) and sales of luxury homes over<br />

$1,000,000 also declined 16% (131 /<br />

110) across the region.<br />

If you’re an existing homeowner,<br />

median price appreciation remained<br />

a bright spot in 2018, though not as<br />

bright as it has been. Median price for<br />

the region increased 6% ($351,578 /<br />

$374,104), exceeding my mid-year forecast<br />

of 5%. Echoing what’s happening<br />

across the state, our higher end markets<br />

in Temecula and Murrieta saw three<br />

consecutive months of price declines<br />

during the last quarter while more affordable<br />

market continued to increase.<br />

Temecula actually saw a median price<br />

decline of 5% from December of 2017<br />

($474,000 / $449,325) and after posting<br />

an average price in excess of $500,000<br />

for the first 11 months of the year, saw<br />

that drop to $489,890 in December.<br />

Across the market our region is still<br />

some 4.5% below our prior peak average<br />

price point ($405,486 / $387,767)<br />

but three cities, Temecula, Wildomar<br />

and Menifee all set new record high<br />

averages. It took 11 years to recover<br />

what it took 18 months to lose.<br />

So where do we go in 20<strong>19</strong>? Well<br />

there are experts on both sides of the<br />

equation from (limited) boom to (moderate)<br />

bust. As usual, I agree with the<br />

experts. Home sales across the state fell<br />

3.2% in 2018 and are forecast to drop<br />

25<br />

another 3.3% in 20<strong>19</strong>. Sluggish sales<br />

will moderate price gains to 3% - 5%<br />

with actual declines in some markets.<br />

Most point to underlying strength in<br />

our economy albeit with concern for<br />

the impact of weakness in markets<br />

from Europe to China, the fear of<br />

trade wars, stock market volatility,<br />

the Fed, and what the newly constituted<br />

Congress and mega-majority<br />

California Legislature will deliver<br />

to us.<br />

Meanwhile cloudy and blurry<br />

will define our return to the new normal<br />

for the next few months. If you’d<br />

like to view the detailed report and<br />

graphs, please visit: https://tinyurl.<br />

com/SRCAR-housing.<br />

Gene Wunderlich is Vice President,<br />

Government Affairs for Southwest<br />

Riverside County Association of Realtors.<br />

If you have questions on the<br />

market, please contact me at GAD@<br />

srcar.org.

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