VBJ February 19
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<strong>February</strong> 20<strong>19</strong><br />
Cloudy and Blurry, or the New Normal?<br />
REAL ESTATE<br />
by by<br />
Gene Steve Wunderlich Fillingim<br />
As most of you know from my<br />
recent articles, 2018 was not a great<br />
year but far from a bad one. We’ve<br />
been in a low interest rate/low inventory<br />
situation for so long we’ve forgotten<br />
what a ‘normal’ market used to<br />
be. For example, we’ve conveniently<br />
forgotten when we were comfortable<br />
with 6% - 7% mortgage interest rates.<br />
Rates have been artificially depressed<br />
into the 3% range for so long that<br />
today’s rates of 4.25% are causing<br />
alarm. They shouldn’t. And next year<br />
they’ll likely rise into the 5% - 5.5%<br />
range, and that won’t be the end of<br />
the world either. However, it does<br />
make it more difficult for first-time<br />
buyers to enter the market given the<br />
lack of affordable workforce housing.<br />
Lack of supply is the problem, not<br />
interest rates.<br />
Similarly, we’ve forgotten that a<br />
‘normal’ inventory of homes for sale<br />
is a 6 -7 month supply. Over the past<br />
decade we’ve had local inventories<br />
as low as 3 weeks and only recently<br />
increased to 3 months. And for some<br />
THE VALLEY BUSINESS JOURNAL<br />
www.TheValleyBusinessJournal.com<br />
reason people are freaking out about it.<br />
They shouldn’t. Increased supply is the<br />
solution, not the problem.<br />
Properties are staying on the market<br />
longer – as long as 40 days in December.<br />
For agents accustomed to the more recent<br />
market, the fact that they’re not getting<br />
multiple offers at higher than asking<br />
price within hours of listing a home is<br />
evidence that the market is collapsing.<br />
It’s not. Competitively priced properties<br />
are still selling briskly but nearly 30%<br />
of properties in the mls are now selling<br />
after a price reduction. Adjust your expectations<br />
in line with reality instead of<br />
fantasy and you won’t be disappointed.<br />
Fewer properties sold across our<br />
region in 2018 than 2017 – about 12%<br />
fewer (11,685 / 10,479). That’s actually<br />
479 homes more than my mid-year forecast<br />
called for, so I look at that as a win!<br />
But it’s also the fact that we’re coming<br />
off our best sales year in a decade in<br />
2017 that makes this year look worse<br />
than it actually is. After four consecutive<br />
years of increasing sales volume, a<br />
step back looks scary until you realize<br />
a correction is not a bad thing. As long<br />
as it remains just a correction. By the<br />
way, condo sales were off 15% (680<br />
/ 581) and sales of luxury homes over<br />
$1,000,000 also declined 16% (131 /<br />
110) across the region.<br />
If you’re an existing homeowner,<br />
median price appreciation remained<br />
a bright spot in 2018, though not as<br />
bright as it has been. Median price for<br />
the region increased 6% ($351,578 /<br />
$374,104), exceeding my mid-year forecast<br />
of 5%. Echoing what’s happening<br />
across the state, our higher end markets<br />
in Temecula and Murrieta saw three<br />
consecutive months of price declines<br />
during the last quarter while more affordable<br />
market continued to increase.<br />
Temecula actually saw a median price<br />
decline of 5% from December of 2017<br />
($474,000 / $449,325) and after posting<br />
an average price in excess of $500,000<br />
for the first 11 months of the year, saw<br />
that drop to $489,890 in December.<br />
Across the market our region is still<br />
some 4.5% below our prior peak average<br />
price point ($405,486 / $387,767)<br />
but three cities, Temecula, Wildomar<br />
and Menifee all set new record high<br />
averages. It took 11 years to recover<br />
what it took 18 months to lose.<br />
So where do we go in 20<strong>19</strong>? Well<br />
there are experts on both sides of the<br />
equation from (limited) boom to (moderate)<br />
bust. As usual, I agree with the<br />
experts. Home sales across the state fell<br />
3.2% in 2018 and are forecast to drop<br />
25<br />
another 3.3% in 20<strong>19</strong>. Sluggish sales<br />
will moderate price gains to 3% - 5%<br />
with actual declines in some markets.<br />
Most point to underlying strength in<br />
our economy albeit with concern for<br />
the impact of weakness in markets<br />
from Europe to China, the fear of<br />
trade wars, stock market volatility,<br />
the Fed, and what the newly constituted<br />
Congress and mega-majority<br />
California Legislature will deliver<br />
to us.<br />
Meanwhile cloudy and blurry<br />
will define our return to the new normal<br />
for the next few months. If you’d<br />
like to view the detailed report and<br />
graphs, please visit: https://tinyurl.<br />
com/SRCAR-housing.<br />
Gene Wunderlich is Vice President,<br />
Government Affairs for Southwest<br />
Riverside County Association of Realtors.<br />
If you have questions on the<br />
market, please contact me at GAD@<br />
srcar.org.