The Trucker Newspaper - December 1, 2019

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18 • December 1-14, 2019 Business
b Trucks from page 17 b
There is always a risk in forecasting the truck
market and the U.S. economy broadly, in either
direction, and that risk remains the trade war with
China, Tam said.
With U.S. manufacturers and farmers struggling
to compete on the tilted global playing
field, the key driver of growth in the mid-term
outlook is the U.S. consumer, who remains wellpositioned
to keep the economy out of the ditch,
Tam said.
“With around 80% of North America’s Class
8 market and about 90% of the Classes 5-7 and
trailer markets beholden to the U.S. economy, it
is little wonder that ACT’s forecasts focus heavily
on the North American, and primarily the U.S.,
economy,” Tam said. “We are seeing weakerthan-expected
activity in the economies of Canada
and Mexico and our US growth expectations,
at 2.2%, are now below start-of-the-year levels.
Looking to 2020, GDP growth in all three North
American economies is anticipated to fall below
2%, with the US and Canada at 1.7% and Mexico
rebounding to 1.4%.”
Regarding the trade war and risk of a recession,
Tam said if President Donald J. Trump
doubles down from this point, a greater global
b Trailers from page 17 b
with slower line rates and/or reduced days in operation
at the OEMs. A market that was extremely
advantageous toward the OEMs as 2019 opened
has seen that pendulum shift rather dramatically
to ‘advantage fleets,’ meaning price levels will
likely be a major topic during ongoing order negotiations.”
The high October order totals were achieved
despite still elevated cancellations, as a few
OEM’s continue to clean up their 2019 backlogs,
FTR said, adding that October production is expected
to be down moderately on a per-day basis
due to seasonal factors, with backlogs climbing
slightly for the first time in 10 months.
thetrucker.com
downturn could ensue, with the worst outcomes
spreading beyond the impact of tariffs and into a
global currency war.
“If Schedule D tariffs are put in place in December,
the likelihood of recession rises,” he said.
ACT’s North American Commercial Vehicle
Outlook is a report that forecasts the future of
the industry, looking at the next one to five, with
the objective of giving OEMs, Tier 1 and Tier 2
suppliers, and investment firms the information
needed to plan accordingly for what is to come.
The report provides a complete overview of the
North American markets, as well as takes a deep
dive into relevant, current market activity to highlight
orders, production, and backlogs, shedding
light on the forecast.
Information included in this report covers
forecasts and current market conditions for medium
and heavy-duty trucks, tractors, and trailers,
the macroeconomies of the US, Canada, and
Mexico, publicly-traded carrier information, oil
and fuel price impacts, freight and intermodal
considerations and regulatory environment impacts.
ACT Research is a publisher of commercial
vehicle truck, trailer and bus industry data, market
analysis and forecasts for the North America
and China markets.
More information can be found at actresearch.net.
8
“This is great news for the trailer market,”
said Don Ake, FTR vice president of commercial
vehicles. “Several large dry van fleets placed
requirement orders for 2020, showing they have
confidence in the freight markets going into next
year. Dry van orders were strong despite a lull in
freight growth. There still is plenty of replacement
demand present and fleets continue to need more
dry vans to move products quickly to and between
warehouses due to increased online sales.”
Ake said the vocation trailer markets, such
as flatbeds and dumps, are still struggling as the
industrial sectors of the economy weaken. Refrigerated
van orders are expected to increase soon.
“The higher October orders suggest the market
will be decent in 2020. The trailer market is slowing,
but a significant downturn is not imminent,”
he said. 8
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