VBJ March 2020
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THE VALLEY BUSINESS JOURNAL<br />
24 www.TheValleyBusinessJournal.com<br />
<strong>March</strong> <strong>2020</strong><br />
Aaaand, They’re Off!<br />
REAL ESTATE<br />
by by<br />
Gene Steve Wunderlich Fillingim<br />
Don’t know if you noticed ho<br />
media headlines for the first half of<br />
January trumpeted the onslaught of<br />
buyers heralding a jump on the spring<br />
buying season. Realtor.com told us:<br />
“Early-bird home buyers turn January<br />
into the new April” while MSNBC<br />
announced “Competition for housing<br />
is so high, the spring market is starting<br />
now”. But by mid-January Housing<br />
wire reported that “The Housing<br />
Market is off to a slow start in January”<br />
and Financial Samurai cautioned<br />
“It’s Time to Start Worrying About<br />
the Housing Market Again”. Not to<br />
be outdone, CNN just came out with<br />
“Coronavirus Threat Set to Trigger a<br />
Massive U.S. Housing Market Crash”.<br />
It’s not even mid-February and I’m<br />
already exhausted for the year. It’s less<br />
stressful to follow the election!<br />
So, ignoring the media crisis<br />
du jour, how did <strong>2020</strong> actually start<br />
in Southwest California? About as<br />
expected – no surprises, no rush, no<br />
crash. January is always a slow month<br />
and this year was no different.<br />
After a decent December that capped<br />
off a pretty good 2019 season, pending<br />
sales were down coming into the month<br />
so all things considered. we pretty much<br />
knew what was going to happen. And<br />
it did, but maybe not as bad as it could<br />
have. Sure that closed sales were down<br />
21% from December (860 / 679) but they<br />
were 16% better than January 2019 (583),<br />
so that’s not bad. And pending sales coming<br />
into February are up 20% (672 / 843),<br />
so subtract two holidays, add a leap day,<br />
multiply by low interest rates carry the<br />
seven, = February should be even better.<br />
What about prices, you ask? More<br />
good news. January median price ticked<br />
up 2% from December ($385,900 /<br />
$395,188) and improved 6% over last<br />
January ($370,706). That’s good news for<br />
home sellers, but not so good if you’re<br />
trying to buy– especially if you’re a firsttime<br />
home buyer.<br />
Not only that but there’s way fewer<br />
options to choose from right now. We’ve<br />
had eight straight months of inventory<br />
declines dropping us 6% month-overmonth<br />
(1,720 / 1,623) and down a<br />
whopping 30% from last January (2,317).<br />
Inventory is at its lowest level since January<br />
2018 and, after rising to 4+ months<br />
a few times in 2019, has now dropped to<br />
around 2monthsin most markets.<br />
As I’ve cautioned before, some<br />
percentage of sales and inventory can<br />
be attributed to increased new home<br />
construction across our region, and we<br />
are appreciative of the efforts our cities<br />
and county are making to address the<br />
housing crisis. But that’s still a grim<br />
inventory number coming into the year.<br />
If we’re going to have a robust buying<br />
season, it’s imperative we add to that<br />
listing inventory because you can’t sell<br />
what you don’t have. And right now<br />
we don’t have! Despite the Governor’s<br />
pledge to add 350,000 new dwelling<br />
units to the state every year, in 2019 the<br />
state actually produced fewer that it had<br />
in 2018 – down around 108,000 units.<br />
And projections from both the California<br />
Association of Realtors and the Building<br />
Industry Association are forecasting less<br />
than 1,000 additional homes built in <strong>2020</strong><br />
– from 108,170 to 108,620. Not only a<br />
far cry from the Governor’s 350,000, but<br />
less than the 180,000 we need just to keep<br />
pace with growth. Probably a good thing<br />
people are leaving the state – take some<br />
of the pressure off.<br />
The good news is that aside from<br />
CNN’s threat of a crash (when was the<br />
last time they were actually right?),<br />
most prognosticators of any repute<br />
remain optimistic for housing in <strong>2020</strong>.<br />
With economic indicators all still in<br />
positive territory and interest rates<br />
expected to remain near record lows<br />
for the year, there are few indicators<br />
of a recession, or even a correction,<br />
this year. C.A.R is forecasting modest<br />
gains in sales and price, while Core-<br />
Logic is even more bullish on the<br />
market this year than they were last,<br />
and they usually do a pretty good job.<br />
Let’s hope they’re right.<br />
Gene Wunderlich is Vice President,<br />
Government Affairs for Southwest Riverside<br />
County Association of Realtors.<br />
If you have questions on the market,<br />
please contact me at GAD@srcar.org.