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VBJ March 2020

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THE VALLEY BUSINESS JOURNAL<br />

24 www.TheValleyBusinessJournal.com<br />

<strong>March</strong> <strong>2020</strong><br />

Aaaand, They’re Off!<br />

REAL ESTATE<br />

by by<br />

Gene Steve Wunderlich Fillingim<br />

Don’t know if you noticed ho<br />

media headlines for the first half of<br />

January trumpeted the onslaught of<br />

buyers heralding a jump on the spring<br />

buying season. Realtor.com told us:<br />

“Early-bird home buyers turn January<br />

into the new April” while MSNBC<br />

announced “Competition for housing<br />

is so high, the spring market is starting<br />

now”. But by mid-January Housing<br />

wire reported that “The Housing<br />

Market is off to a slow start in January”<br />

and Financial Samurai cautioned<br />

“It’s Time to Start Worrying About<br />

the Housing Market Again”. Not to<br />

be outdone, CNN just came out with<br />

“Coronavirus Threat Set to Trigger a<br />

Massive U.S. Housing Market Crash”.<br />

It’s not even mid-February and I’m<br />

already exhausted for the year. It’s less<br />

stressful to follow the election!<br />

So, ignoring the media crisis<br />

du jour, how did <strong>2020</strong> actually start<br />

in Southwest California? About as<br />

expected – no surprises, no rush, no<br />

crash. January is always a slow month<br />

and this year was no different.<br />

After a decent December that capped<br />

off a pretty good 2019 season, pending<br />

sales were down coming into the month<br />

so all things considered. we pretty much<br />

knew what was going to happen. And<br />

it did, but maybe not as bad as it could<br />

have. Sure that closed sales were down<br />

21% from December (860 / 679) but they<br />

were 16% better than January 2019 (583),<br />

so that’s not bad. And pending sales coming<br />

into February are up 20% (672 / 843),<br />

so subtract two holidays, add a leap day,<br />

multiply by low interest rates carry the<br />

seven, = February should be even better.<br />

What about prices, you ask? More<br />

good news. January median price ticked<br />

up 2% from December ($385,900 /<br />

$395,188) and improved 6% over last<br />

January ($370,706). That’s good news for<br />

home sellers, but not so good if you’re<br />

trying to buy– especially if you’re a firsttime<br />

home buyer.<br />

Not only that but there’s way fewer<br />

options to choose from right now. We’ve<br />

had eight straight months of inventory<br />

declines dropping us 6% month-overmonth<br />

(1,720 / 1,623) and down a<br />

whopping 30% from last January (2,317).<br />

Inventory is at its lowest level since January<br />

2018 and, after rising to 4+ months<br />

a few times in 2019, has now dropped to<br />

around 2monthsin most markets.<br />

As I’ve cautioned before, some<br />

percentage of sales and inventory can<br />

be attributed to increased new home<br />

construction across our region, and we<br />

are appreciative of the efforts our cities<br />

and county are making to address the<br />

housing crisis. But that’s still a grim<br />

inventory number coming into the year.<br />

If we’re going to have a robust buying<br />

season, it’s imperative we add to that<br />

listing inventory because you can’t sell<br />

what you don’t have. And right now<br />

we don’t have! Despite the Governor’s<br />

pledge to add 350,000 new dwelling<br />

units to the state every year, in 2019 the<br />

state actually produced fewer that it had<br />

in 2018 – down around 108,000 units.<br />

And projections from both the California<br />

Association of Realtors and the Building<br />

Industry Association are forecasting less<br />

than 1,000 additional homes built in <strong>2020</strong><br />

– from 108,170 to 108,620. Not only a<br />

far cry from the Governor’s 350,000, but<br />

less than the 180,000 we need just to keep<br />

pace with growth. Probably a good thing<br />

people are leaving the state – take some<br />

of the pressure off.<br />

The good news is that aside from<br />

CNN’s threat of a crash (when was the<br />

last time they were actually right?),<br />

most prognosticators of any repute<br />

remain optimistic for housing in <strong>2020</strong>.<br />

With economic indicators all still in<br />

positive territory and interest rates<br />

expected to remain near record lows<br />

for the year, there are few indicators<br />

of a recession, or even a correction,<br />

this year. C.A.R is forecasting modest<br />

gains in sales and price, while Core-<br />

Logic is even more bullish on the<br />

market this year than they were last,<br />

and they usually do a pretty good job.<br />

Let’s hope they’re right.<br />

Gene Wunderlich is Vice President,<br />

Government Affairs for Southwest Riverside<br />

County Association of Realtors.<br />

If you have questions on the market,<br />

please contact me at GAD@srcar.org.

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