Derry City and Strabane District CouncilClimate Change Adaptation Plan 2020-2025

Appendices
Appendices
Appendix 1
Representative Concentration
Pathways
In order to predict the potential impacts of climate change in
the future, many different variables must be considered. One
of the key pieces of data is the emission of greenhouse gases,
including carbon dioxide. This in turn must take account of
several other factors which affect these emissions such as;
population, economic activity, lifestyle, energy use, land use
patterns, technology and climate policy.
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) provide a
measure of greenhouse gas forcing (Radiative Forcing -the
difference between the incoming and outgoing radiation at
the top of the atmosphere) and represent different scenarios
for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions ranging from no/
low effort RCP8.5 to transformational societal change and
reduction in emissions RCP2.6.
Name Radiative Forcing CO2 Levels
RCP8.5 8.5 Wm² in 2100 High Levels
Rising
(~1370 ppm CO2 eq) by 2100
RCP6.0 6 Wm² post 2100 Medium
Low Mitigation
(~850 ppm CO2 eq) at
stabilization after 2100
RCP4.5
RCP2.6
4.5 Wm² post
2100
3 Wm² before
2100 declining to
2.6 Wm² by 2100
Medium
High Mitigation
(~650 ppm CO2 eq) at
stabilization after 2100
Very Low Levels
Peak & Decline
(~490 ppm CO2 eq) before
2100 and then decline
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DCSDC Climate Change Adaptation Plan