NOVEMBER- DECEMBER 2021

ANALYSIS
supporters, he has also announced that he
was still the supreme leader of the APRC
and proceeded to promptly sack the old
National Executive and appoint a new one
from a dissenting faction of the party.
Barely a month after the signing of
the NPP-APRC alliance, it emerged that
not all supporters of the former president
were in agreement with the move. At least
a month before Jammeh publicly rejected
the alliance, a breakaway faction of the
APRC, calling itself the ‘No to APRC-NPP
Alliance’ movement, had been vocal in
condemning the party’s National Executive
for getting into bed with the NPP.
Faction members questioned why
Barrow would be warming up to a party
that he had so vehemently condemned just
months earlier. This breakaway faction
was the first to claim that Jammeh did not
sanction the alliance, contrary to what his
party’s National Executive was saying. The
breakaway faction, now legitimated and
backed by its supreme leader’s rejection of
the alliance will certainly cost the president
some votes, and by the look of things that
could be a significant number of votes. It
is clear that Barrow’s strategy of winning
‘
The election battleground
is full of many
imponderables
’
re-election by embracing the APRC has
backfired.
A divided APRC and Jammeh’s
rejection of an alliance with him are only
two of several challenges Barrow is facing
in the run-up to the December polls. There
is, first of all, his former party and now
arch rival, the UDP, which commands
significant support across the country and
is indisputably the largest opposition party
in the country.
A UDP victory in December would be
a nightmare for Barrow. It is a possibility
that the president cannot dismiss as remote.
There are also a few other contenders
that should be watched. There is the
veteran politician and sociologist Sallah,
who heads the People’s Democratic
Organisation for Independence and
Socialism (PDOIS). Though Sallah’s
chances of winning the presidency are
rather slim, his party has visibly expanded
its support base over the past year or two.
Then there is the independent
candidate, Essa Faal, former lead counsel
for the TRRC whose popularity during the
Commission’s public hearings convinced
him to run for president. Faal may not win
the election, but he certainly commands
significant support across the country
and is likely to win support from among
potential Barrow voters.
In effect, Barrow has good reason
to feel intimidated by the prospect of
defeat in December, especially now that
his plan to embrace the former dictator
and to jettison the work of the TRRC has
alienated a significant number of Gambian
voters in the Greater Banjul Area and West
Coast Region, the country’s most populous
urban areas.
In the final analysis, with the clock
fast approaching December 4, it is nearly
impossible to say who will be elected
the next president of The Gambia. Even
with the many advantages of incumbency,
Barrow is not guaranteed to win reelection.
Indeed, the battleground is full of many
imponderables. Thus, Gambians will have
to wait for the days after the election to
AB
know who their next president will be.
Ousainou Darboe: from Barrow’s mentor to sworn enemy
AFRICA BRIEFING NOVEMBER - DECEMBER 2021 23