NOVEMBER- DECEMBER 2021

PUBLISHER’S NOTE
After COP26: why gas should
be part of the continent’s
clean energy future
PUBLISHER’S NOTE
FRICA is the continent likely to bear the
brunt of the effects of climate change even
Africa A bucks global
though studies show it has contributed least
to the crisis.
economic trend
The consensus at this year’s COP26 climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland was a blanket
ban on fossil fuels that would preclude any new projects involving natural gas. Burning
In natural 2018, gas emits six of carbon the 10 dioxide fastest-growing (CO2), a long-lived greenhouse gas. Facilities that produce,
transport economies and consume in the natural world were gas sometimes in leak methane, a short-lived but even more
potent Africa, greenhouse according gas. So to the blocking World money Bank, for new gas pipelines, gas-fired power plants, or
gas-consuming with Ghana industries leading the in Africa pack. might With seem like good environmental policy, especially as
GDP we seek growth to accelerate for the continent the global projected transition to a cleaner energy future in the wake of Covid-19.
accelerate But some experts to four disagree. per cent in 2019 and 4.1
per They cent maintain 2020, that Africa’s a prohibition economic funding growth for gas-fuelled power in Africa won’t work for
story climate continues mitigation apace. — and Meanwhile, it will hurt the World continent’s Bank’s development. 2019 Doing Worse, Business because Index gas has a
reveals pivotal that role to five play of in the Africa’s 10 most-improved transition to clean countries energy, are a in ban Africa, now could and one-third slow the adoption of
all of reforms renewables recorded and reinforce globally a global were energy in sub-Saharan double standard. Africa.
And there are many reasons why gas should have a bright future in Africa. The continent
What is starting makes from the such story a low more energy impressive use and and emissions heartening base that is that there the are growth few gains from
– squeezing projected out to gas. be broad-based Here’s how low: – is if being all of achieved Sub-Saharan in a Africa challenging tripled global its electricity
environment, consumption overnight bucking the using trend. only natural gas, the additional CO2 would be equivalent to just
1 percent of global emissions.
In the Cover Story of this edition, Dr. Hippolyte Fofack, Chief Economist at the
African Electricity Export-Import demand may Bank be plateauing (Afreximbank), in the US analyses and Western the Europe. factors But underpinning Africa, rising this
performance. incomes, growing Two populations factors, in and my rapid opinion, urbanisation stand out will in Dr. combine Hippolyte’s to push analysis: electricity demand
trade to at least between double Africa (or possibly and China triple and or the more) intra-African by 2040. Barring cross-border financing investment for all fossil and fuels
would have the very concrete effect of slowing poverty reduction, raising energy costs on the
infrastructure development.
most vulnerable people, and suppressing incomes and job creation.
Much Ruling has out been gas would said and hamstring written African about countries China’s ever-deepening as they try to adapt economic to the major foray impacts into
Africa, of climate especially change like by Western droughts, analysts floods and and soaring commentators temperatures. who Gas have is been particularly sounding wellsuited
bells to energy-intensive about re-colonisation adaptation of technologies, Africa, this time such by as steel the Chinese. and concrete But for empirical resilient
alarm
evidence infrastructure, paints desalination a different for picture. expanded freshwater supply, and cold storage and air
conditioning.
Despite the decelerating global growth environment, trade between Africa and
Coal, geothermal, nuclear and hydro power stations all incur huge upfront capital
China increased by 14.5 per cent in the first three quarters of 2018, surpassing
investments. By contrast, gas turbines are cheap and modular, which helps them sidestep the
the growth rate of world trade (11.6 per cent), reflecting the deepening economic
huge cost overruns that plague large coal-fired power projects. And they are less polluting
dependency than the default between modular the energy two major source trading in emerging partners. markets – the diesel generator.
Empirical Natural gas evidence is not just shows for electricity; that China’s it's also domestic a valuable investment feedstock has for become making highly fertilizer or
linked other petrochemicals with economic and expansion efficient in Africa. source of A process one percentage heat for high-energy point increase industries like
in cement China’s or steel domestic production. investment For African growth countries is associated with industrial with an average ambitions of (that 0.6 is, all of
percentage them), gas will point be increase an indispensable overall input. African exports. And, the expected economic
development Nigeria, Mozambique, and trade Ghana, impact Senegal of expanding many Chinese more countries investment have on their resource-rich own significant
African natural gas countries, resources especially that they oil-exporting are already developing, countries, often is even in partnership more important. with US and
European companies. Asking these countries to leave this resource in the ground and forego
The income, resilience or to export of African all their economies gas to richer can regions, also be seems attributed indefensible, to growing especially intra-African given that...
cross-border investment and infrastructure development. A combination of the
Gas accounted for nearly half of the global increase in energy demand in 2018. The United
two factors is accelerating the process of structural transformation in a continent
States, China, and large parts of Asia and Europe are all betting heavily on gas as a core
where component industrial of their output energy and futures, services with account important for volumes a growing sourced share from of GDP. Africa African as liquefied
corporations natural gas (LNG). and industrialists Indeed, French which energy are giant expanding Total has their inked industrial the financing footprint for a across $20
Africa billion and LNG globally project in are Mozambique. leading the Closing diversification off gas consumption from agriculture to African into higher countries just
value because goods they in are manufacturing late adopters with and more service limited sectors. financing These options industrial for building champions out domestic
are gas carrying infrastructure out transcontinental is a politically and operations, ethically fraught with investment stance. As a holdings senior African around policymaker
with once a said: strong “We presence will be aggressive in Europe in and promoting Pacific the Asia, energy together transition, account but for we more cannot
the
globe,
than accept 75 climate per cent colonialism.” of their combined activities outside Africa.
Innovation can position gas to support a future zero-carbon energy system. Methane leaks
A survey of 30 leading emerging African corporations with global footprints and
are starting to be monitored by satellite, potentially addressing a serious environmental
combined revenue of more than $118 billion shows that they are active in several
concern about gas. Over the longer term, pipelines and storage facilities needed for gas
industries, including manufacturing (e.g., Dangote Industries), basic materials,
utilisation today could allow future excess energy from off-peak wind and solar to be stored
telecommunications as “renewable gas” for (e.g., later use. Econet, Emerging Safaricom), technologies finance for (e.g., carbon Ecobank) capture and and storage oil (CCS)
and might gas. also In allow addition gas-fired to mitigating power plants risks to highly operate correlated with a low or with zero African carbon economies,
footprint.
these emerging African global corporations are accelerating the diversification of
The above is by no means exhaustive and given the seriousness of climate change, “Ban
sources of growth and reducing the exposure of countries to adverse commodity
all fossil fuels, everywhere” is an intuitively appealing position. When applied to energydeprived
of trade. regions like Africa, however, ruling out natural gas will do far more harm than good
terms
This on environmental, makes very health, bullish and about development Africa! fronts. In the process, it will convince policymakers
on the continent, perhaps not for the first time, that outside investors do not have their
best interests at heart.
Publisher
Jon Offei-Ansah
Editor
Publisher Desmond Davies
Jon Offei-Ansah
Contributing Editors
Editor
Stephen Williams
Desmond Davies
Prof. Toyin Falola
Deputy Tikum Editor Mbah Azonga
Angela Contributors Cobbinah
Contributing Justice Lee Editor Adoboe
Stephen
Chief Chuks
Williams
Iloegbunam
Joseph Kayira
Director, Zachary Special Ochieng Projects
Olu Ojewale
Michael Orji
Oladipo Okubanjo
Contributors Corinne Soar
Kennedy Olilo
Justice Lee Adoboe
Chuks Iloegbunam Designer
Joseph Kayira
Simon Blemadzie
Zachary Ochieng
Olu Ojewale
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