The Softwood Forest Products Buyer - July/August 2022

Inland West Business Trends
By Terry Miller
President
A change from recent trends, Softwood lumber in the
Inland West region is selling slowly.
In Wyoming, a sawmill representative noted, “Most
items are weakening. The stud market is falling apart.
The Ponderosa Pine board market has softened over the
course of the last two weeks. The shop market is holding
its own, but I expect that to weaken sometime soon,
based on the reports we are getting from every other market.”
He said that, compared to a few months ago, his market is worse.
He handles Ponderosa Pine Common boards, shop and ESLP studs. His bestseller
is Ponderosa Pine boards in 1x4 through 1x12.
Most of his sales are to distribution yards. “Distribution’s been doing OK in
sales,” he observed.
“The only transportation issues have been with the Union Pacific Railroad out
West. Trucks have been decent.”
A Montana lumberman said his market is “softening. Dimension is softening.
Pine boards are still high in price but very available. We’re having steady-toslowing
sales. A lot of that is seasonal. The volume and frequency of quoting
prices to potential customers is decreasing right now. It could be that a lot of
factors go into that including rising interest rates and a decrease in new housing
starts.
“Prices are starting to soften, and the lower the prices, the more volume you
move. So, for us, the market is about the same as it was several months ago,” he
stated. “I don’t think the full downturn of a recession or anything like that has hit
just yet, but sales are definitely slowing down.”
He handles 1x4 through 1x12 Ponderosa Pine/Lodgepole Pine, No. 2, No. 3
and No. 4 1x4 through 1x12 Doug Fir, No. 2 to No. 3 2x4 through 2x12 Doug Fir
and SPF. His best sellers are 2x6 SPF and 1x6 Ponderosa Pine/Lodgepole Pine.
“We sell mostly to distribution yards and wholesalers,” he stated. “The sales
are still really strong-to-normal, maybe with a slight downtick. Their sales are
still very steady.
“The availability of trucks is a little bit better, but prices continue to climb,”
he remarked. How transportation goes is kind of week-to-week, day-by-day. It’s
hard to quote things delivered to a customer when the freight rates are jumping
up every other day. So, I’d say that my biggest challenge is with freight. We use
flatbed trucks 98 percent of the time.”
An Idaho lumber provider said his market is “slow. I sell Pine and Cedar. Pine
sales are OK, but Cedar sales are challenging. Customers have seen prices go
down and are hesitant to buy during a declining market. Cedar probably has an
element of pull-forward business. During the last two years when people were
stuck at home and getting mailed government checks, they may have pulled-forward
projects – like decks – from future years. But this year, the market is very
challenging.”
The market is worse than it was six months ago, he noted.
He handles Ponderosa Pine in No. 2 Common, No. 3 Common and No. 4 Common
and Cedar in Premium, No. 2 and Better.
He sells primarily to distribution yards. “Sales are slower,” he observed.
“We’ve actually been polling our customers. Their sales total 70 percent of where
they were last year. So, there’s takeaway – customers buying products – and
there’s consumption, but customers are definitely in the mode of making their
inventories lean.
“Transportation is a challenge,” he stated. “Trucks have gotten somewhat
more available, but they’re more expensive. Rail cars are hit-or-miss in terms of
availability. There are times when we get a lot of rail cars that show up. There
are times they don’t send us cars. It’s a challenge, but it’s a little easier because
we don’t have as many people looking for our rail cars to bring them lumber. But
when they do show up, we have to load them and get them out.” n
Midwest Business Trends
By Paul Miller Jr.
Vice President
The health of the Softwood lumber markets in the Midwest
region is mixed. Interviews with lumbermen there
yielded varied depictions of the markets, from “gangbusters”
to “slow” to the beginnings of lower demand.
In Texas, a sawmill representative said his sales are
“going gangbusters. We are selling everything we can
produce. We sell only boards.”
Continued on page 40
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