Ashburton Courier: November 10, 2022

www.ashburtoncourier.co.nz
RURAL
Ashburton Courier, November 10, 2022
47
Land use change likely in 2040s
Water use consent, and dairy shed
renewalsdue inthe early­2040s may be a
catalyst forland usechange in Mid
Canterbury, according to Our Land and
Water researchers.
Our Land and Water (Toitū te Whenua,
Toiora te Wai)isone of 11 National
Science Challenges focusedondefined
issues of national importance identified
by the NewZealandpublic.
Areport,recently released by
researchers and led by Ashburton District
Council agriculture portfolio advisor
Richard Fitzgerald,foundaround 40
percent of all dairymilking sheds in the
district were built between 2007 and 2015,
according to resourceconsents.
Based on life projections for adairy
shed, 230 sheds will reach the end of their
economic life between 2040 and 2048 ­
meaning nearlyhalf of all dairy sheds are
likely to need replacing.
Researchers foundfarmersmakingsuch
decisions would look at climate suitability,
regulations and the prevailing economics
of dairying compared to other land uses.
They also found between 2030 and 2040,
78 percent of allwater use consents in the
district would expire. However thearea of
landinvolved in this process will be even
greateras water consents for all three
irrigation companies in the districtalso
fall due in this period.
Mr Fitzgeraldisafarmerwith anactive
involvementinanintensive irrigatedMid
Canterbury­basedfamily farm, and has
experience as an agribusiness executive
and consultant.
Part of this researchincluded running
farmerfocus groups and examining data
from the AshburtonDistrict Council and
Environment Canterbury to analysethe
economic life of key assetssuch as dairy
sheds andirrigation consents.
Most were unfazed.
One farmer saidthey would follow
profits and go where the market led, and
anothertalkedabout planning
investments to cope with extreme events.
Overthe past 20 years, irrigation has
transformed AshburtonDistrict from its
traditional use as sheep and grain growing
region.
Irrigated farming now covers about65
percent or 220,000 hectares of the
Ashburton District plains.
Dairy farming now accounts for $1,129
millionof thelocal economyand 63
percent of net farm incomefor the district.
‘‘The renewal process is significant
becausethe implementation of the
National Policy Statement for Fresh
Water Management (2020) mayintroduce
new ordifferentconsentconditions for
water use. This could change theviability
or feasibilityofsomelanduses under
those new conditions, especially if the
fortunes of dairyfarmingdo not compare
as favourably as other land use options,’’
researchers said.
Mid Canterburydairy farmer Nick
Richard Fitzgerald
Giera,ofRuapuna,said owner­operators
and familyfarmsmaking decisions will
mean looking at investment returns, but
also their own personalcircumstances.
‘‘Makingany decision to changewill
involvelookingat return on investment,
but they’llalso considertheir own
personal stage of their farming career,
succession plans, andassetvalue
considerations of alternativeland uses.
‘‘At the momentthere are not many land
uses(with the requiredsupporting
infrastructure) that compete with dairy on
areturn­on­investmentbasis, but that may
changeinthe future,’’ he said.
Another key finding of the research is
that meaningful climate information at a
granular 5km x5km resolution would give
farmers confidence to make changesto
improve farm circumstances.
Future water use consent and dairy shed
renewals may be acatalyst for land use
changes in Mid Canterbury.
‘‘Myguess is that mostfarmers will wait
untilthere are reliable trends and
patternsoflong­term changes to climate
before making significant changes to their
business.
‘‘This means farmers are likely to have
other factors thatdrive change firstsuch
as returns and asset replacement
decisions,’’ Mr Giera said.
‘‘Climate data is notoriously inaccurate
andmodelsthat predict future changes in
climate have along way to go to givefarmers
anyconfidence in investingbasedonfuture
predictions. Soil type andlocalisedclimate
arebig driversofwhat is possible andthat's
where we need data,’’ he said.
‘‘Farmers are alogical bunchwho are
keen to understandthe changing climate at a
granular, locallevelastheir whole business
model is based on climate,’’researchers
said.
‘‘It makes goodbusiness sense to
understand whatiscoming so they can
future­prooftheirbusiness.’’
Ashburton DistrictCouncil chief executive
Hamish Riachsaidworkingtogether,
supportedbyindustry and thescientific
community, farmerscan understand what
theclimate future will looklike andwhat to
do about it.
‘‘If we givefarmersresearchthey cantake
home anduse straightaway, rather than
high­leveltheory, then they will minimise
riskand utilise the opportunitiesemerging
throughachangingclimate.’’
IN BRIEF
SPONSORSHIPS
Ballance Agri-Nutrients (Ballance)
is calling all aspiringtertiary
students wanting afuture in
agriculture to apply for one of its four
$4000 sponsorships.Ballance
generalmanager Sheena
Henderson says the industry
needed people able to apply critical
thinking to join New Zealand’s
agricultural team.This is their
chance to makeadifference,
helping to build asustainable
primarysector that protects our
unique naturalresources.’’ Students
can apply via www.ballance.co.nz
and mustbestudying afield related
to agri-business, horticulture or the
primary sector. Student’swhose
applications are successful can
apply for their sponsorshiptorenew
for up to three years. Applications
closeNovember 13.
WINTER PLANS
An intensive winter grazing
managementplan is key for farmers
to ensurethey are getting the best
environmentaloutcomewith ahighrisk
activity, Environment Canterbury
says.New intensivewinter grazing
rules cameinto force this monthas
part of government’s Essential
Freshwaterpackage. Under these
rules, intensive winter grazing (IWG)
can be practised as apermitted
activity only if certain criteria around
land area, slope, distance from
waterways andcritical sourceareas
are met. Farmersunabletomeet
thesecriteria needtoapply for
resource consent. They have until
May 1, 2023 to lodge an application.
Aformisavailable on the ECan
website and can be completed by
farmers.
DAIRY FARMS SALE
Agroup of five dairy farms
encompassing nearly 3000ha is
beingsold by Fonterra’s largest milk
supplier Dairy Holdings Ltd (DHL).
Theysit within the West Coastand
Tasman districts. Dairy HoldingsLtd,
who have their headoffice in
Ashburton, have60dairy farms -
plus grazing blocks -across the
South Island, the others range from
Mid Canterburydownto Southland.
The farms for sale are in Springs
Junction in the BullerDistrict with
anotherone at Maruia, in Tasman,
and all of themsupply Westland Milk
Products. The total land area is
2898hawith an additional32ha of
leasehold property and an effective
dairyingblock of 1700ha,running
3570 cowsthis season. Colliers
Rural, on behalf of DHL,istaking
expressionsofinterestclosing
November23.
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