The Softwood Forest Products Buyer - March/April 2024

Southeast Business Trends
Ontario/Quebec Business Trends
By Sue Putnam
Editor
Across the Southeastern region while all lumber sources
agreed that their sales were slow, they each believe it is
for a different reason.
In Alabama, a lumberman said that while his sales
have been steady, they have been impacted by the weather.
“I expect to bounce back as soon as the weather issues are
out of the way.”
He noted that his sales are better than they were six
months ago. “The economy is continuing to roll along,
and the interest rates didn’t put the brakes on sales like we thought they would, as
people’s inventories are low, and they are being forced back into the market.”
His company offers Southern Yellow Pine in thicknesses of 11/32 to 3/4 inch
and in grades A, B and C, as well as rated sheathing. He mentioned that he will
sell to anyone that wants to buy from him.
When asked how he thinks the market will continue to fare over the next several
months, he said, “Hopefully it will continue to rock along, and we will be pleas-
Continued on page 58
By Richard Lipman
Guest Writer
Noted an SPF manufacturer in Quebec, “Both Ontario
and Quebec are still very difficult. Now that the weather is
improving in Ontario, we're starting to see a little bit more
activity there, but in Quebec, it's still very slow and that's
a function of probably the economy as well. The lumber
markets are much stronger in the US right now. They're
about to turn around, to the positive, finally. Typically
what would happen is our market areas would follow, but
Canada is in worse shape economically than the US. I'm
not sure how much it's going to step up. We anticipate that most of the sales and
the growth, the price increases in the market, will come from the US sales at this
point in time”.
An Ontario producer reported that “regarding various grades, there's nothing
that's lagging at the moment. Everything is moving well, so that is a positive. We
are not necessarily concerned about the countervailing duty announcement, but it
changes the strategy a little bit. In the mill’s mind, since the taxes will increase in
August, again, they might as well hold off a bit. Most mills in Canada are losing
money, a lot of money, so what we
need to do is make sure that we
get the best value possible for our
production."
A Quebec wholesaler suggested
that “mills might try to limit their
sales somewhat right now and try
maybe to increase the volume of
production a little bit closer to the
springtime, meaning March and
April and May, and closer to the
duty change as well in August.
This will be done to ensure that
they track some better pricing,
which is going to happen with the
duties that are coming in the fall.
An Ontario wholesaler felt that
“what's going to happen with
all the mills before that date in
August is that whatever isn't sold
is going to be moved in the US
ahead of the tax hike. It is going
be moved in reloads and yards
and so on, to be able to offset the
potential costs, the additional costs
in a very difficult market in terms
of profits for the mills right now."
According to a Quebec manufacturer,
“I would say that with
the production decreases in SPF,
especially on the Canadian side,
with influence from the west and
east, there's a bit better balance in
the marketplace and as the year
goes on, and the fact that it's a
US election year as well, I think
there's going to be less barriers
to business. I think they'll want
to control interest rates in the US
better. Maybe not that they're going
to decrease, because it's probably
dangerous to do that now,
inflation is not yet under control,
but they're going to want to make
sure that they create opportunity
for everybody for houses. There's
a deficit in housing in the US as
it is in Canada and they'll want
to address that if they can. So I
think we're going to have a very
good year, and the lumber markets
Continued on page 58
Page 26 Softwood Forest Products Buyer • March/April 2024