A Brief DPL Tutorial

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Strenlar_Decision [1113.54] Develop Lawsuit [111.508] -200 Technology Salary [1113.54] Technology Cash_Offer [926.162] Figure 21 ♦ Now suppose Mr. X risk tolerance is lower, maybe 200. On the pull down menu, go to “Model/Risk Tolerance” and enter the value of 200 and run the analysis again. ♦ The new Policy Tree (Figure 22) show that such a low risk tolerance (indicating a very risk averse attitude) Mr. X should go for the alternative with the lowest risk of all, mainly the upfront cash offer. Lawsuit Develop [-84.7736] -200 Strenlar_Decision [790.407] Technology Salary [659.817] Technology Cash_Offer [790.407] Figure 22 Note: Values inserted in the Node Data are not automatically added to the tree. They must be specifically invoked from formulas or a “Get/Pay” expression. Values inserted as “Get/Pay” are automatically included into the tree calculations. Linking to spreadsheet ♦ Suppose you linked your <strong>DPL</strong> model to a spreadsheet and now you want to add an additional node link. If you just re-link it will delete your whole <strong>DPL</strong> file ♦ What you want to do is: ♦ Tools/Add linked nodes/From Excel 22
♦ When the window appears, click on the Browse button to re-choose the Excel file to link ♦ Click “Select” ♦ A new window now appears showing any Excel name that has not yet been linked ♦ Choose the one you want and close all 23
Page 1 and 2: A Brief DPL Tutorial When you first
Page 3 and 4: Oil field - A You own a lease to dr
Page 5 and 6: ♦ Click on “Node / Add Chance
Page 7 and 8: ♦ Click OK In the Decision Tree P
Page 9 and 10: Substituting a Get/Pay Expression f
Page 11 and 12: Modeling a Lognormal Distribution w
Page 13 and 14: At t his point, your screen should
Page 15 and 16: ♦ Click on any branch of the “Y
Page 17 and 18: Yr1 Up Down Exercise1 Yes (Yr1-X)/e
Page 19 and 20: ♦ The three uncertain outcomes (L
Page 21: OperatingCost ProdRate DevelCost PS

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