A Brief DPL Tutorial

Oil field – A
You own a lease to drill for oil. The oilfield will produce 500.000 barrels of oil per year
for two years, at a cost of $13 per barrel. Drilling costs are $2 million. The expected price
of oil over the next two years is constant at $18. Should you drill for oil?
We will now input this data and create our decision tree.
In the Influence Diagram Pane:
♦ Click on the Decision Node icon to create a Decision Node.
♦ Name this node “Drill Decision”.
♦ Click OK
♦ The corresponding decision tree appears automatically in the Decision Tree Pane
In the Decision Tree Pane:
♦ Double-Click on the Decision Node of the decision tree. The Instance Menu
appears. Choose Asymmetric
♦ Double-Click on the “Yes” branch. The Get/Pay menu pops up.
♦ Insert the formula for the profits: -2000+1000*(18-13)
♦ Click OK
Figure 4
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